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New federal fuel regulations are coming soon — here’s what you can expect

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In just three weeks, new federal regulations will begin slapping surcharges on the most polluting fuels in a bid to rein in transportation emissions.

Eventually, those Clean Fuel Regulations will make gasoline more expensive. The federal Conservatives and the Canadian Taxpayers Federation have taken to calling them “carbon tax 2.0” or “the second carbon tax.” Premiers in Atlantic Canada are urging Ottawa to postpone or reverse them.

This week, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe joined their campaign.

“I agree with my Atlantic counterparts, premiers from Atlantic Canada, that have called on the federal minister to delay the implementation of these to ensure that the minister is doing proper and appropriate consultation,” he told CBC News.

“The clean fuel standard has a potential for quite a disproportionate impact in various areas of the nation.”

So what are the federal Clean Fuel Regulations? How do they work?

Premier Scott Moe speaks with media at the Saskatchewan legislature on May 15, 2023.
Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe says the regulations could have a ‘disproportionate impact’ on some parts of the country. (Kirk Fraser/CBC)

Federal regulations already require a minimum percentage of biofuels in gasoline and diesel. Starting July 1, a new regime will replace those rules.

The new regulations are meant to cut the “carbon intensity” of automotive fuels sold on the Canadian market — how much they generate in emissions for a given amount of energy. Unlike the current rules, the new ones cover the entire life cycle of fuels, from production and transport to consumption.

The goal is to push companies that produce or import fuel to gradually reduce the emissions intensity of that process by setting a ceiling and dropping it each year. By 2030, the rules will require a 15 per cent cut in emissions intensity compared to 2016 levels.

Producers could comply with the new rules in different ways. They could put more ethanol in their gasoline, use more biodiesel or find innovative ways of reducing their refineries’ emissions through, for example, carbon capture and storage.

Producers that come in below the federal government’s emissions intensity ceiling will earn extra credits they can sell. Other producers can buy those credits if their fuels fall short.

It’s also possible for others to earn credits through investments in, for example, electric vehicle charging stations, and to sell those credits to fuel producers.

How much will they cost?

The new Clean Fuel Regulations come into force on July 1 but refineries will have a year to comply. The federal government says it doesn’t think consumers will notice any added costs right away.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) says the regulations’ impact on gas prices will be “minimal” for the next few years — since producers should be able to meet the standards by taking steps they probably would have taken anyway.

ECCC predicts that by 2030, consumers should see some added costs when filling their tanks, although the department isn’t certain how big the price bump will be. It estimates a price increase at the pumps by 2030 of anywhere between six and 13 cents per litre for gasoline, depending on how refineries comply.

The Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) predicts a price increase of 17 cents per litre.

That’s on top of the 37 cents the carbon tax will add to a litre of gasoline by 2030.

The economic cost will be a hit to GDP of roughly $9 billion and a cut to emissions of about 27 million tonnes in 2030, says an ECCC regulatory impact analysis.

The government estimates that by 2040, the regulations will have cut emissions by around 200 million tonnes at a cost to GDP of $30 billion. Given how much each tonne of carbon costs society in increased climate warming, the government calculates that it’s a good bargain.

Is this just another carbon tax?

Strictly speaking, no. A carbon tax imposes a surcharge on every litre of fuel based on its carbon content. The Clean Fuel Regulations work differently, since they only penalize the dirtiest fuels.

“It’s almost like a carbon tax, but it doesn’t put the charge on every litre, so it can do more to encourage efficiency or fuel switching toward low carbon fuels or low carbon electricity without having the same price impacts on the fuel itself,” said climate economist Mark Jaccard, a professor at Simon Fraser University and an expert on clean fuel standards.

The regulations actually work more like a cap-and-trade system, which provincial governments used well before the federal carbon tax.

“It’s like a cap-and-trade system for intensity as opposed to absolute emissions,” said Jaccard.

And the federal government itself won’t collect a dime from the regulations. Instead, the money moves from producers of polluting fuels to producers of clean energy, making the cleaner fuels cheaper.

“Those who make biofuels, those who make hydrogen, those who make electricity, they actually get money coming into their pockets, because the higher intensity sellers of fuels have to buy credits from them,” Jaccard said.

The Supreme Court of Canada also found that the federal government’s carbon pricing system isn’t really a tax. That hasn’t stopped Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, Moe and other critics from calling it one.

Jaccard said it doesn’t really matter if the emissions reduction tool is called a tax or a regulation — because in order to work, the tool must increase the cost at the pumps.

“The effect to the consumer is no different,” Jaccard said.

Who wins, who loses?

In a recent analysis, the PBO concluded that the regulations would hit people differently depending on how much they earn and where they live.

Since low-income people use a higher portion of their earnings on fuel, they’ll feel more pain. So will the Atlantic and Prairie provinces. The PBO predicts the regulations will cost an average Saskatchewan household $1,117 and the average Alberta household $1,157 in 2030.

Those totals come from higher fuel costs, inflated prices for other goods and impacts on wages and other earnings. In B.C., the PBO says the hit will add up to just $384 in 2030 for the average household.

The economic toll will also vary widely. In Newfoundland and Labrador, real GDP is forecast to be about one per cent lower in 2030 than it would have been without the regulations. Saskatchewan would be the next worst off, with a hit of 0.9 per cent that year, the PBO found.

Moe said those are good reasons to hit pause and look for ways to limit the damage for the regions that will feel it more.

“Slow down, understand what the economic impacts are, work with the industry on what’s achievable,” he said.

In its regulatory impact assessment, ECCC said it conducted years of consultations with industry. It cited a long list of working groups, committees and consultation documents that resulted in hundreds of comments on the regulations. It said provinces were “heavily engaged.”

Despite the PBO report and Moe’s concerns, Jaccard said he’s not convinced the regulations will have a great negative impact on provinces like Saskatchewan and Alberta.

“A clean fuel standard in transportation would not have markedly different regional costs or transfers going on,” he said. “I’ve read no evidence for that.”

He said the the Prairie provinces also stand to benefit from the regulations.

“In B.C. when we buy the biofuels, we buy them from the Prairies,” said Jaccard.

Canola blooms in farm fields.
Canola blooms in farm fields near La Salle, Manitoba on July 28, 2022. Canola is used to make biofuels. (Shannon VanRaes/Reuters)

Chris Vervaet, executive director of the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association, said he also thinks the regulations will benefit his industry. He said his group was “heavily involved” in their development.

“We’re optimistic that the Clean Fuel Regulations will be a demand driver for our low-carbon feedstock,” he told CBC News.

Vervaet said he’s already seeing billions of dollars of investment in new processing facilities. He predicted the regulations will give producers a chance to diversify away from unpredictable sources like China.

“We have a market here in Canada that is more predictable, so that’s a huge advantage,” he said.

That could explain why Moe — who never has a single nice word to say about carbon taxation — has been less ferocious in his opposition to the Clean Fuel Regulations. He acknowledged they have the “ability” to rein in admissions and could even bring benefits to agriculture in his province.

“There quite likely is a path through, as I say, consulting with industries, consulting with the provinces, in putting together a policy in this space that likely is workable,” he said.

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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