Forecasting the future of NXT in looming WWE media rights deal

In 2014, WWE launched its ambitious over-the-top streaming service, the WWE Network. At the time, it was a significant milestone in the streaming era. The pro wrestling company removed itself from the Pay-Per-View model to air its monthly live events, an assembly of original content, and its massive tape archive. Little did anyone know then that the Network included something that would transform its entire shape: the NXT brand. Nearly a decade later, the NXT brand is more prominent than anyone imagined. That begs the question: What’s next as the company prepares to negotiate its newest media rights deal?

When NXT “arrived” on the WWE Network, its purpose was plain and simple: It had become WWE’s developmental “proving ground” brand. NXT originally debuted two years earlier in 2012 and aired on Hulu until the Network’s launch. NXT ArRIVAL aired on February 27, 2014, becoming the company’s first live event streamed on the new service. The event showcased a “different” kind of professional wrestling, or at least not one WWE fans were often treated to. NXT was run by current WWE head Triple H, and his style, vision, and creativity, paired with the late Dusty Rhodes and his insight and style, created a unique broadcast and product.

As they say, the rest is history. NXT became something of a cult favorite at first. Athleticism and high-octane offense were a massive allure to the product. But so was something else: The women were portrayed in ways utterly different from the archaic forms they were up on the main roster. Bayley, Becky Lynch, Charlotte Flair, and Sasha Banks were all instrumental in helping lead the rise for the women that year, as the quartet later dubbed ‘The Four Horsewomen’ became both huge parts of the show and trailblazers in the industry.

In 2015, the brand experienced something of a boom. Their event during WrestleMania 31 weekend in San Jose drew a sell-out and is a ‘lost tape,’ as the full event has never been aired on the Network. They took their TakeOver specials around the country — the first during SummerSlam weekend, TakeOver: Brooklyn. The event was critically acclaimed and featured Bayley vs. Sasha Banks for the NXT Women’s Championship, a match deemed by many as the greatest women’s wrestling match of all time.

After going to London in December 2015, they brought TakeOver to WrestleMania weekend in Dallas in 2016. Afterwards, up until the COVID-19 pandemic, they hosted TakeOver events during the Big 4 weekends — SummerSlam, Survivor Series, the Royal Rumble, and every WrestleMania. And then, finally, in 2019, they made the big jump off the WWE Network to cable television. The USA Network began to air the NXT brand, and at this point, it felt more significant than it ever was.

So, that is all to say: Where does it land now?

President Nick Khan recently floated that NXT could remain its own thing and perhaps become bigger again. Khan dished to The Hollywood Reporter about how they never skipped a beat in production during the COVID-19 pandemic.

He also said to THR, “We think NXT has the viability to be its own standalone brand instead of just being a developmental system – a third brand, if you will,” hinting at crossover potential between Raw, Smackdown, and NXT superstars.

If we want to forecast the future of NXT, a few things need to be examined.

Perspective on NXT comes from all sorts of different places. And it depends on who you listen to. At its most basic level, it is a developmental proving ground show. A large majority of the wrestlers who compete on NXT are not finished products. They’re all searching for the same thing: A call-up to the main roster. Titles and other storylines on the show take precedence. Many of the title bouts have been historical, and some have gone on to inspire more than a few active wrestlers to pursue their careers. But at the end of the day, it’s not perfect; it’s sometimes rough around the edges, but the rewards are usually top-notch. And the “promise” and “hope” factor burns eternal.

At one point, WWE did build it up as a legitimate ‘third brand.’ They all but put their chips in back in November 2019, when the brand stood both solid and tall at their Survivor Series event, winning the most matches of the three brands that night in head-to-head-to-head competition. The brand also has a real pedigree. Nearly the entire WWE roster in 2023 features NXT alumni, which means many of the company’s champions over the last decade have NXT roots. The brand will sell itself that way and pronounce itself when its alumni do well.

Over the last few years, NXT’s television ratings have been something of a conversation online. At least when it was running against rival wrestling company All Elite Wrestling and its flagship show, Dynamite. AEW often beat the show in the ratings, and the brand’s online perception took a hit. Eventually, NXT moved to Tuesday nights on the USA Network, never left, reformatted, and then reformatted again. Despite all the changes, the show still does well enough to keep a loyal following. They’ve rarely bottomed out in viewership. They also infrequently dip below 550,000, but they’ve hit something of a ceiling. 700,000 viewers on January 10 is their highest number of the year thus far. Their ballpark has been between 600k-700k.

The show does not have the reach or the following of its main flagships, Monday Night Raw and Friday Night Smackdown. It’s realistically a tough ask to ask someone to watch three wrestling shows in one week. It’s hard as it is to get anyone to do that with anything, so they have found drawbacks there. The show is also broadcast in Orlando, Florida, in what is essentially the equivalent of a TV studio. It’s a small venue that, compared to the massive arenas and stadiums, some of which are now international, on the main roster, dwarves in comparison.

Based on the weekly numbers, it’s evident that many WWE fans aren’t as ‘plugged in’ or attracted to NXT. This has probably gone on for years, as the difference between the Network and TV led to that audience divide as well. And that’s not wrong, but it’s just how it is. And the way it’s supposed to be. And just because the show has a niche doesn’t mean you should ignore that niche, either. No one set that expectation for the show to beat or stay level with Raw and Smackdown. Compared to Raw, which debuted in 1993, and Smackdown, which first launched in 1999, NXT is a spring chicken. They’ve certainly beefed up the show in recent years. Its nearly two-year run of ‘head-to-head’ competition against AEW showed that, at least at one point, WWE was serious about the brand’s visibility and validity. There is an NXT audience out there, and chasing after it has proven to be worthwhile in the past. And if it weren’t, they wouldn’t have almost their entire roster.

Plus, the shows have different offerings—Raw and Smackdown feature polished wrestlers and the biggest stars in the company, full frontal. You’ll see a more bite-sized approach and a glimpse of the future in NXT. There’s a lot of experimentation going on, and not everyone is a finished product. When the best prospects go at it, it provides a lot of fun.

The timing of Khan’s comments, though, is very interesting. Lately, enhancing the brand, almost universally, is the fact that there’s now a sense of cohesion and synergy on the shows.

In years prior, fans voiced a significant complaint about the lack of cohesion and the apparent lack of faith. While NXT’s popularity rose, the WWE main roster product remained incredibly adversarial. Sometimes, there’d be a sense of trepidation between the two entities. They became such opposites that they created a divide between fans, leading to much toxicity. Based on many tells over the years, both outside and in the company. But as those tides have subsided, clarity has risen, leading to recent attempts to connect the dots.

Particularly of note lately? NXT Champion Carmelo Hayes made a surprise appearance on Friday Night Smackdown last week on Fox. Hayes, who fans view as a top prospect, continued a program with NXT alum Baron Corbin, who also appeared on the NXT TV show earlier in the week. Bron Breakker, wrestling legend Rick Steiner’s son, also made a challenge to reigning World Heavyweight Champion and superstar Seth Rollins. Furthermore, it looks like WWE will merge their women’s tag team divisions, which could lead to more fun and synergy in that department. And it doesn’t just go one way either: NXT stars Cora Jade and Roxanne Perez also made cameos on Raw and Smackdown in 2022.

So, it makes you wonder: Are the recent inroads to beef NXT up an attempt to butter the brand up for its potential future homes?

It’s a working theory and one that, while WWE negotiates its next media rights deals, does make sense. It’s a crucial period for WWE. To their credit, the company keeps smashing gate records, continues delivering substantial audiences on Peacock, and has a massive social media following. They haven’t missed much. And last week’s episode of NXT did gain its highest audience number in almost two months.

Among the potential contenders for NXT? Well, since Khan appeared to float the idea that everything is on the table for even Raw and Smackdown, then you have to believe the same is true for NXT.

Will they remain on cable television? It would behoove them from the conventional standpoint that television is how you get the most exposure. USA Network will probably hope to keep them on the Network, especially with Raw’s future uncertain. With all the Todd Chrisley drama, even as Chrisley Knows Best continues, WWE is by far the biggest draw for the USA Network, so you have to figure they’ll compete until the bitter end to retain it.

But with streaming taking hold, will a move back there make more sense? And what’s more, when you ask that question, do you also consider that the hottest period for the brand came while they weren’t on TV?

People were drawn to fill Barclays Center in the summer of 2015 to see Bayley, Sasha Banks, Finn Balor, and Kevin Owens, and they didn’t because the show was on TV. And if anything, streaming has only swelled since they caught the buzz of 2014-2015. So it’s worth considering that they might retake a look if it makes the most sense. WWE’s Premium Live Event model already has its fans accessing Peacock. So it’s not like a move to streaming would ask their fans to do something they aren’t instinctively told to do.

Plus, you could argue that the USA Network has taken NXT about as high as it can go. So could they try and sell it to someone else and shoot for a different stratosphere? It could all be on the table.

If I had to guess right now, based on nothing? I’d lean toward a return to streaming. I’m not all the way sold yet on WWE’s hit TV shows hitting streaming services quite yet. But NXT returning to streaming is what I think happens. Only because that’s the wave now and because NXT has been there before and succeeded there before.

Whatever’s next for NXT, the brand will continue to take leaps thought unimaginable nearly ten years ago. NXT is hitting the road again, having held events in Charlotte and Lowell, Massachusetts this year, as well as an NXT TakeOver during WrestleMania weekend in Los Angeles. So they are returning to form and getting hot again, perhaps at the right time.

By the time the new deal comes around, it’ll have been ten years since the Network’s launch and since NXT was shot out of the cannon. Where they land next will likely tell the history of a brand no longer fledgling but instead ready to take the next great leap forward.

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