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The Real Reason Oil Prices Remained Low In 2019 – OilPrice.com

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The year that is drawing to a close has not been good for oil. Despite production caps across OPEC and beyond, and despite the extra-large number and size of production outages, benchmark prices have stubbornly stayed range-bound below what oil-reliant OPEC economies consider a good price for their product. How did this happen?

First and foremost, it happened because of the U.S. shale boom, as Bloomberg’s Grant Smith wrote in a recent overview of oil in 2019. The consensus on the role of U.S. shale oil production growth seems to be unchallengeable. All oil price forecasts, including OPEC’s own, now regularly include U.S. oil production growth as the main reason for growth in non-OPEC supply that acts as counterweight to OPEC’s production curb efforts.

It was U.S. shale oil production—which hit a record-high this year turning the country into the world’s top oil producer—that caused what can only be called a growing apathy among traders. When OPEC is not the single large source of oil for energy-hungry nations, when there is another country pumping more than 11 million bpd with no risk of disruptions, the mood on the market is very different, and we saw this in 2019 more clearly than ever before.

The production outages at Libyan fields moved prices, but only for a few days. Even the biggest production outage in recent history, the drone and missile attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, could not keep Brent at $70 for more than a few days. Of course, as usual, there was the hypothesizing that it could have spiked to $300 a barrel had the attacks led to an open war in the Middle East, but hypothesizing is part of the oil price game that has little bearing on actual prices. Related: From Boom To Bust: Permian Shale Towns Face Exodus

In further evidence that U.S. oil has become a force to be reckoned with, OPEC’s latest agreement to implement deeper production cuts failed to impress a market that was expecting the deepening and knew that this cannot stop U.S. production from growing. Oil prices habitually rise after an OPEC meeting or an update from inside the cartel—or from a Russian official now that the two have partnered on production—but this year the price rises have been short-lived.

Fundamentals forecasts have not helped. The International Energy Agency said in its latest Oil Market Report that the global oil market will likely be 700,000 bpd in excess of demand in early 2020. That’s despite the efforts of OPEC+ and, yes, thanks to growth in U.S. production. That production, the IEA said, would drive a 2.3-million-bpd growth in non-OPEC supply while growth in the demand for oil will continue to slow. Related: Iraq’s 550,000 Bpd Oil Deal Is In Jeopardy

Yet there is still hope for oil bulls. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan recently revised their oil price forecasts for 2020 and they revised them upward. Goldman upped its outlook for both Brent and WTI, citing its expectations that OPEC+ will successfully cut more barrels from their daily production, shrinking any oversupply. JP Morgan seems to share the sentiment. It also cited OPEC+’s deeper cuts as reason for its price-forecast revision.

Trusting oil price forecasts from even the most reputable investment bank is something one does at their own risk, but there have been signs that prices could climb higher, even in the new apathetic market environment. Among the signs are the improving relations between the U.S. and China and, most recently, a WSJ report that banks are growing cold towards shale drillers. There is a very good chance that news like this could pull the market out of its apathy.

If shale drillers lose their easy access to cash, the fact could even erase the apathy entirely. For now, however, the overwhelming sentiment on oil markets is indifferent-for-longer.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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