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What the oil plunge means for Canada and Alberta – Global News

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First, it was COVID-19. Then came the oil market crash, as global oil prices fell around 30 per cent on Monday amid a production war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.

It’s an unwelcome one-two punch for the global economy, economists say. But for Canada, the second blow is especially serious.






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Stock markets plunge on coronavirus fears and oil price wars


Stock markets plunge on coronavirus fears and oil price wars

Oil markets tumbled Monday in their biggest one-day drop since the Gulf War of 1991, as Saudi Arabia and Russia vowed to ramp up oil production after failing to reach an agreement to curtail supply in order to prop up prices.

READ MORE: Plunging oil prices amid coronavirus fears slam Wall Street, TSX

Both Brent crude, the global oil-price benchmark, briefly dropped to around US$31 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, the North American benchmark, went as low as $27 a barrel. (All oil prices are in U.S. dollars.)

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“We’ve seen a number of oil shocks,” BMO chief economist Douglas Porter said. But, he added, “I must say this one is quite abrupt.”

READ MORE: Wall Street, TSX pause trading as stocks plunge amid oil market chaos

The last time oil prices dived that low was the oil price crash of 2014-2015. Back then, Porter recalled, “we certainly saw the Alberta economy suffering a huge way.”






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Why is trading halted on the U.S. and Canadian stock exchanges


Why is trading halted on the U.S. and Canadian stock exchanges

Alberta headed for recession?

“It’s bad news for the Alberta economy on the whole,” said Nick Falvo, a research associate at Carleton University. “With this recent drop, I think people will be starting to say the R-word and they would not be foolish in suggesting that.”

Canada’s energy sector felt the immediate effects of the drop in the price of crude oil. The stock prices of producers Suncor Energy Inc. and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. were both down 20 to 25 per cent Monday morning.

For now, the impact on oil production in Alberta’s oil patch looks likely to be more contained than in the U.S. shale-oil fields, which account for 80 per cent of U.S. output growth, said Rene Santos, manager of North America supply analytics at S&P Global Platts.

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READ MORE: 3 new presumptive cases of COVID-19 in Alberta bring total to 7

While the lower oil prices could make a number of new U.S. shale-oil developments uneconomical, the impact on Alberta’s producers will be more limited, Santos predicted. That’s because the province doesn’t have many new projects slated to come online in the near term.

“What is good for Canada is that the oil sands have a very steady production,” Santos said.

Oil-price drops are more likely to affect new energy projects that are nearing completion. For existing projects in the oil sands, current production levels should continue for the most part, barring a further, steep drop in prices, Santos said.






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Albertans feeling ignored amid ‘jobless’ recovery


Albertans feeling ignored amid ‘jobless’ recovery

Some analysts, however, are now forecasting just such a drop.

Investment giant Goldman Sachs slashed its forecast for crude prices, saying COVID-19 and the Russia-Saudi Arabia rift could send crude below levels seen in the 2014 market crash, which pushed crude prices below $30 a barrel by 2016.

Some believe the decline in oil prices will likely be severe and prolonged.

READ MORE: Alberta premier says coronavirus outbreak may affect balanced budget plan

On Monday, Standard Chartered, a British financial service, cut its average 2020 Brent forecast to $35 per barrel from $64, and its average 2021 Brent forecast to $44 per barrel from $67.

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“With supply ramping up at the same time as coronavirus-related demand losses reach their maximum, the short-term floor to oil prices is extremely weak,” Standard Chartered said.

Alberta’s recent spring budget had forecast West Texas Intermediate will average $58 a barrel in the coming year.

Falvo said this should be a wake-up call for Alberta to move away from being reliant on oil revenues.

“The Kenney government should be thinking carefully about the advantages of investing in the public sector and the drawbacks of cutting in that sector,” he said. “Given that you can’t change the price of oil, you might want to think about what you can control.”






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Coronavirus outbreak: Trump signs $8.3 billion USD emergency funding bill


Coronavirus outbreak: Trump signs $8.3 billion USD emergency funding bill

Impact on the rest of Canada

While the last oil shock was painful for oil-producing provinces, “the rest of country pretty much drove on as if nothing really happened,” Porter said.

In general, low oil prices drag down both interest rates and the Canadian dollar, which stimulates economic activity, Porter noted. Lower interest rates mean cheaper borrowing, while a weak loonie helps boost exports.

READ MORE: Morneau insists economy can handle coronavirus as economist urges fiscal caution

This time, however, Canada is also coping with the economic implication of COVID-19, which had already put pressure on global oil prices amid factory shutdowns and reduced travel worldwide.

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On March 4, the Bank of Canada cut its trend-setting interest rate by half a percentage point to 1.25 per cent in an effort to soften the economic impact of the outbreak.






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Bank of Canada governor addresses reasons behind interest rates cuts


Bank of Canada governor addresses reasons behind interest rates cuts

Now economists expect Ottawa to step in with fiscal measures.

Policymakers should be focused on ensuring the current turmoil “doesn’t morph into a broader downturn for the economy,” Porter said.

“That means standing ready and, in fact, doing some preemptive things to support consumer and business confidence, to make sure that everyone’s aware that the federal government will use its balance sheet as needed to support the economy.”

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Porter said federal coffers are in fairly good shape compared to other governments.

I’m not particularly worried about a couple of years of big deficits, not when Ottawa can borrow for less than one per cent [interest rate],” Porter said.

The financial market rout has pushed borrowing costs to record lows for a number of governments, including Canada and the U.S., as investors in search of safer assets buy up government bonds.

Still, Ottawa should avoid getting locked into permanently higher spending levels, Porter warned.

What the economy needs is a focused, “surgical” intervention, he said.

© 2020 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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Amazon rejects plea to stop selling taxi roof signs as cab scam spreads across Canada

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After a long day at a work event in July, Kathryn Kozody was relieved when she spotted a car with a lit-up taxi sign.

She thought it was odd when the driver told her she’d have to pay her fare with a debit card. Still, a tired Kozody hopped in the car.

“I was like, ‘Fine, it’s kind of weird, but let’s go home,'” said Kozody, who lives in Calgary.

Nothing else seemed off — until the next day when she discovered that almost $2,000 was missing from her bank account. On top of that, her debit card had someone else’s name on it.

Kozody concluded that the taxi driver was a fraudster who, during the debit card transaction, recorded her PIN, stole her card and handed her back a fake.

“I started freaking out,” she said. “It’s terrifying when they have your debit card.”

It took Kozody about two weeks to get her money back from her bank, and she’s still rattled by the experience.

 Kathryn Kozody standing on the street
The day after taking what she thought was a ride in a taxi, Kathryn Kozody of Calgary found out someone had withdrawn almost $2,000 from her bank account. (James Young/CBC News)

“It really felt like an invasion of privacy and a violation to be a victim of this scam,” she said. “I really don’t want it to happen to anybody else.”

The taxi scam isn’t new; Toronto and Montreal have been seeing it for years. But the crime is becoming more widespread.

This summer, police in Calgary, Edmonton and at least five cities in southern Ontario, including Kingston and Ottawa, posted warnings online that they had received multiple reports of the scam.

Police and the Canadian Taxi Association say the fraudsters have a helping hand: with the click of a button, they can purchase a generic — but official looking — taxi roof sign on e-commerce sites like Amazon.

A Facebook post by the Edmonton Police.
Edmonton Police posted this alert on Facebook in July, warning people about an ongoing taxi scam. The city’s police department says that it received about 10 reports of the scam that month. (Edmonton Police/Facebook )

The taxi association has asked Amazon, by far Canada’s most popular online shopping site, to stop making the roof signs so easily available.

“They do have a moral responsibility to at least sell the signs to individuals that are properly licensed,” said association president Marc André Way.

However, the U.S.-based company continues to sell the product to all customers.

“These lights are legal to sell in Canada,” Amazon told CBC News in an email.

‘Eye-popping’ numbers

The taxi scam has several variations but typically ends the same way: the victim pays with a debit card, then the scammer secretly steals it and hands the victim a similar but fake card. Shortly thereafter, money disappears from the victim’s account.

Ron Hansen, deputy chief of police in Sarnia, Ont., said his department received 12 reports of the scam in July, with one victim losing $9,900.

Toronto police report that since June 2023 the department has received 919 reports of the taxi scam, totalling $1.7 million in losses.

Jessica Chin King standing on the street.
Jessica Chin King of Toronto said after a recent cab ride, she got a suspicious activity alert from her bank. She learned $600 had been withdrawn from her account. (Craig Chivers/CBC)

The numbers are “eye-popping,” said Toronto police detective David Coffey.

“When they do get a victim, they are quick to go right into the bank accounts. They’re quick to empty them out.”

Jessica Chin King of Toronto said just 15 minutes after a recent cab ride, she got a suspicious activity alert from her bank. Turns out, $600 had been withdrawn from her account.

“I was like, ‘Wow, I can’t believe that just happened.’ I was in shock,” said Chin King, whose bank later reimbursed the cash.

She said she too was fooled by the taxi sign atop the car.

“I was in the car with somebody who wasn’t a taxi driver. Anything could have happened,” she said. “I was thankful that it was only my bank [account] that was compromised.”

Taxi light for $35 on Amazon

CBC News bought a taxi sign from Amazon for $35. It has a magnetic strip on the bottom, so it easily sticks to the top of a car.

To power the light, an attached wire can be run through the driver’s window and plugged into the car’s auxiliary power outlet, also known as the cigarette lighter outlet.

The taxi association says licensed taxi drivers typically get their roof signs from speciality suppliers, and they are hardwired to the car — not powered via the cigarette lighter.

“When you see that … it’s obvious that it’s not a legitimate taxi,” said Way, the association president.

Last month, Way sent Amazon a letter on behalf of the Canadian Taxi Association, asking it to stop selling the product.

“This is not a safe, practical way to distribute the trusted ‘Taxi’ signs,” he wrote.

A yellow taxi sign with an attached wire.
CBC News ordered this $35 taxi sign on Amazon. The attached wire can be run through the driver’s window and plugged into the car’s auxiliary power outlet, while the lights for licensed drivers are hardwired into the vehicle. (Sophia Harris/CBC News)

But Amazon told Way — and CBC News — the signs will remain on its site, because the company isn’t breaking any rules.

“It’s going to be quite difficult, I think, for anyone to stop Amazon from selling a product that is perfectly legal to sell,” said Toronto criminal lawyer, Daniel Goldbloom. “It’s true that these taxi signs can be used to commit scams, but kitchen knives can be used to commit murder — and we don’t stop retailers from selling those.”

But Way isn’t giving up hope.

He says the taxi association also plans to ask other online retailers, such as Temu and eBay, to stop selling the taxi signs and will lobby provincial governments for legislation that regulates the sale of the product.

However, Coffey said he believes the best way to fight the taxi scam is to educate people about it.

“Never, never give another person control of your debit card,” the detective said.

Victims Chin King and Kozody also want to spread the word.

“The more people know, the less likely it is to happen again to somebody else,” Kozody said.

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