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Before the Bell: Futures down as markets await rate clues

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Equities

Canada’s main stock index started lower Tuesday with energy and mining stocks weighing on sentiment. On Wall Street, key indexes also slid in early trading with interest rates remaining a key focus for markets.

At 9:30 a.m. ET, the Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index was down 52.32 points, or 0.26 per cent, at 19,881.89.

In the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 92.46 points, or 0.27 per cent, at the open to 34,206.66. The S&P 500 opened lower by 13.48 points, or 0.31 per cent, at 4,396.11, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 47.28 points, or 0.35 per cent, to 13,642.30 at the opening bell.

“The focus this week remains on the central banks and whether we are as close to the end of the tightening cycle as everyone wants to believe,” OANDA senior analyst Craig Erlam said.

“While there is the temptation to take what the Fed and others say with a small pinch of salt given their record over the last couple of years and the fact that any pivot was always likely to come late, they have been proven more accurate recently on their assertion that rates need to keep rising.”

Traders are awaiting comments from Fed chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday and Thursday for clues about the central bank’s next moves after it held rates this month but signalled more hikes to come. On Wednesday, markets also get deliberations from the Bank of Canada’s last meeting, when the central bank surprised with a quarter point rate hike. Later in the week, the Bank of England makes its next policy announcement and is expected to continue raising borrowing costs.

In Canada, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions said early Tuesday it was raising the domestic stability buffer for banks to 3.5 per cent from 3 per cent. The buffer dictates how much capital banks need on hand. The change is effective Nov. 1.

“Current vulnerabilities, including high household and corporate debt levels, the rising cost of debt, and increased global uncertainty around fiscal and monetary policy, coupled with Canada’s financial sector showing strength throughout the winter and spring has presented the opportunity for OSFI to build more resiliency in the system,” OSFI said in a statement.

On the corporate side, The Globe’s James Bradshaw, Tim Kiladze and Stefanie Marotta report this morning that Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce has been under remediation orders from Canada’s banking regulator for more than a year after an audit of its mortgage portfolio uncovered breaches of rules that limit how indebted borrowers can be, sources say. The problems surfaced last year in a routine regulatory audit of the bank’s mortgage portfolio conducted by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), which regulates large banks in Canada, according to two sources with direct knowledge of the issue.

In earnings, Wall Street will get results from FedEx after the close of trading.

Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was down 0.26 per cent by midday. Britain’s FTSE 100 added 0.08 per cent. Germany’s DAX fell 0.18 per cent while France’s CAC 40 rose 0.01 per cent.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei edged up 0.06 per cent, recouping early losses. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slumped 1.54 per cent.

Meanwhile, China cut its lending benchmarks on Tuesday in the first such easing in 10 months, as authorities seek to shore up a slowing recovery in the world’s second-largest economy, with more stimulus expected, Reuters reported. The latest monetary easing comes as China’s post-pandemic recovery shows signs of losing steam after some initial momentum in the first quarter of this year.

Commodities

Crude prices were mixed after cuts to China’s key lending rates stoked concerns about demand in one of the world’s biggest consumers of oil.

The day range on Brent was US$75.64 to US$76.75. The range on West Texas Intermediate was US$70.63 to US$72.02.

“Oil prices are relatively flat today, mirroring yesterday’s session which was broadly choppy but ultimately directionless,” OANDA’s Craig Erlam said in an early note.

“Crude has rebounded strongly since falling toward its 2023 lows early last week but remains in its lower range, roughly between $70-$80 per barrel and it’s showing little sign of breaking that in the short term.”

He said, while Saudi-driven OPEC+ production cuts could support prices in the months ahead, the economy remains one significant downside risk “amid an adjustment in the markets toward higher rates for longer.”

Meanwhile, China’s cuts to its one-year loan prime rate and the five-year rate by 10 basis points each were below some forecasts. China has seen weakness in recent factory and retail sales reports, raising concerns about the state of its economic recovery.

“Oil traders may need to see a materialized strong economic rebound in China to improve their outlook on oil demand,” Tina Teng, a markets analyst at CMC Markets, said.

In other commodities, spot gold was up 0.1 per cent at US$1,952.74 per ounce by early Tuesday morning. U.S. gold futures fell 0.3 per cent to US$1,964.60.

“Gold has started the week slightly softer but very little has changed, in that it remains in the $1,940-$1,980 range that it has spent the vast majority of the last month,” Mr. Erlam said.

“It was a very quiet start to the week which is why gold has basically continued to drift and that may continue until we see a significant change in the data.”

Currencies

The Canadian dollar was modestly lower in early trading while its U.S. counterpart was little changed against a group of world currencies.

The day range on the loonie was 75.53 US cents to 75.73 US cents in the early premarket period. The Canadian dollar is up more than 2 per cent against the greenback over the past month.

On world markets, the U.S. dollar index, which weighs the greenback against a group of world currencies, was down 0.1 per cent at 102.34 early Tuesday morning. The index is down about 1 per cent over the past month.

The euro rose 0.1 per cent to US$1.0936, supported by a still-hawkish European Central Bank after two policymakers on Monday said the bank should err on the side of further rate increases in the fight against inflation, Reuters reported.

Britain’s pound was little changed at US$1.2799, ahead of British inflation data on Wednesday and the Bank of England’s interest rate decision on Thursday.

In bonds, the yield on the U.S. 10-year note was slightly higher at 3.794 per cent.

More company news

The Globe’s Nicolas Van Praet reports the professional order that oversees engineering in Quebec says it has called a disciplinary hearing to question formerSNC-Lavalin Group Inc. chief executive Jacques Lamarre, thrusting the company’s dealings in Libya back into the spotlight. L’Ordre des ingénieurs du Québec confirmed in an e-mailed statement Monday that its Office of the Syndic filed a formal complaint against Mr. Lamarre June 15 after an investigation it conducted. It said a hearing of its disciplinary council, an independent administrative tribunal, would be held to consider whether Mr. Lamarre infringed the organization’s code of ethics and professional duties.

Alibaba Group on Tuesday said its CEO and chairman Daniel Zhang will step down from the roles to focus on its cloud division as the Chinese e-commerce giant moves ahead with a plan to split into six business units. Zhang has been concurrently serving in three roles since December when he took over as head of the cloud unit after it suffered an outage that it described as its “longest major-scale failure” for over a decade. –Reuters

Economic news

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian CPI basket weights updated.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. housing starts for May.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. building permits for May.

With Reuters and The Canadian Press

 

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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