Washington, DC – Be careful what you wish for, the old adage goes.
One year after conservatives in the United States fulfilled their decades-long goal of overturning the constitutional right to abortion, Republican politicians are facing setbacks over the issue.
Abortion bans and restrictions are not popular among Americans, and those championing them are paying electorally.
Public opinion polls and numerous election contests — even in Republican strongholds — have suggested over the past year that the majority of US voters want to protect the right to the procedure.
Even former President Donald Trump — who has prided himself on having appointed three justices to the Supreme Court that overturned Roe v Wade — has acknowledged privately that Republicans are “getting killed on abortion”, according to US media reports.
Tresa Undem, a co-founder of the nonpartisan research firm PerryUndem, said the abortion issue has been an “Achilles heel” for Republicans since the Supreme Court’s decision.
“It’s a challenging issue for Republicans right now and in the next national election,” Undem told Al Jazeera. She added that pro-abortion rights voters are not only prioritising abortion rights on the ballot but also linking the issue to other topics, including broader women’s rights and threats to democracy.
The Dobbs decision
In the Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health Organization case last June, the Supreme Court overturned Roe, the 1973 precedent that established a constitutional right to abortion through the 14th Amendment’s privacy protections.
With Dobbs replacing Roe, abortion was no longer protected by the federal government. After the ruling, Republican-controlled states rushed to enact abortion bans and severe restrictions, with some failing to make exceptions for rape and incest.
Such laws, which critics have said violate women’s bodily autonomy and endanger their lives, are facing legal challenges, and several have been blocked by the courts.
They are also unpopular. There is a growing body of evidence showing that most Americans do not want the government to restrict their reproductive rights.
In an NPR/CBS poll released this week, 57 percent of respondents said they opposed overturning Roe. A Gallup poll in May showed that 52 percent of Americans identify as “pro-choice” — in favour of abortion rights — versus 44 percent as “pro-life”. In addition, 69 percent want abortion to be legal in the first trimester of pregnancy.
Abortion has been a contentious issue in US politics for decades. Conservatives — often motivated by religious beliefs — have pushed to ban the procedure, arguing that abortion amounts to ending human life.
Kansas, which has voted for Republican presidential candidates since 1968, offered an early indication of the shifting political landscape under the Dobbs decision. In August 2022, its voters delivered a blow to conservatives, handily defeating a referendum to revoke the right to abortion from the state’s constitution.
“This vote makes clear what we know: The majority of Americans agree that women should have access to abortion and should have the right to make their own health care decisions,” President Joe Biden said at that time.
Democrats ‘benefitted’ from Dobbs
By the midterm elections in November, voters in five more states favoured protecting abortion rights through ballot proposals — including in Kentucky, a Republican stronghold.
Michigan, a swing state that voted for Trump in 2016, also approved a referendum to enshrine abortion rights. Democrats, emphasising abortion rights, comfortably won the three top state-wide races in Michigan last year and gained control of the legislature for the first time in years.
And it was not just in Michigan. In key midterm races, Democrats who made abortion a key issue emerged triumphant, leading the party to a historically good performance nationwide, despite rampant inflation and economic concerns.
Undem said the Dobbs ruling definitely boosted Democrats’ prospects at the polls in 2022.
“There’s no question that it was a setback [for Republicans]. I mean every indicator, from every ballot measure where people voted on it, every poll pre- and post-election, including our own, showed that Democrats really Benefitted from the Dobbs decision and abortion being a top issue,” she said.
Demonstrators at ‘Rally for Our Rights’ protest ahead of the 2023 Wisconsin Supreme Court election outside the Wisconsin State Capitol in Madison on April 2 [File: Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters]
And it has not just been a one-off, according to Undem. Reproductive rights have continued to resonate with voters and will play a role in the 2024 elections, she said, citing exit polling by her firm.
Earlier this year in Wisconsin, for instance, a liberal candidate defeated a conservative rival for a seat on the state’s supreme court in a closely watched race largely seen as a referendum on abortion rights.
So far, there is no sign that Democrats are dropping the issue.
“Let’s be clear: The vast, overwhelming majority of Americans stand with women and support the right to choose abortion,” Democratic Senator Patty Murray said in a floor speech this week.
“Every place abortion rights were on the ballot last November — every single place — abortion rights won. Still, Republicans are ignoring their constituents and doubling down on their extreme anti-abortion politics.”
Heading to 2024
Aside from popularity, Glenn Altschuler, professor of American studies at Cornell University, pointed to a newly found discrepancy in political energy between abortion rights supporters and opponents.
He said, when Roe v Wade was the law of the land, it was easier to energise people against it than for it. Those seeking change are often more enthused than the people who want to preserve the status quo.
“And so, this has been a winning issue for Republicans for that reason for many decades,” Altschuler said.
Now the situation is reversed, with the energy on the side of the people pushing for abortion rights. “When you’re fighting to restore something that’s been taken away from you, that’s a mobilising issue,” the professor said.
That energy could be of the utmost importance in the 2024 presidential elections. With Biden and Trump — two candidates with relatively low approval ratings — expected to be the nominees of their respective parties, voter turnout can be crucial, Altschuler explained.
“Democrats are going to have to depend on two issues to turn out voters. One is the threat to democracy, especially if Donald Trump is the candidate for the Republican Party, and the other is abortion,” he said.
When Roe v. Wade was overturned, we committed that we’d never stop fighting for your reproductive rights.
That hasn’t changed.
Today, I signed a third reproductive health care Executive Order that strengthens access to contraception – an essential part of reproductive care. pic.twitter.com/66jVxlTzUz
Some Republicans appear to be aware of the political risks of the abortion debate. For example, Trump — the party’s leading presidential candidate — has been elusive on whether he would support a national abortion ban.
And recently he suggested the six-week ban signed into law by his Republican rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, is “too harsh”.
But other primary candidates are starting to call him out on the issue, and Altschuler said the former president cannot continue to avoid questions about a federal ban come the general elections.
“Ironically, the abortion issue is being kept alive and active by the Republicans,” Altschuler said.
“By passing legislation outlawing abortion after six weeks, by having a judge in Texas seek to get rid of abortion medication throughout the United States, the issue is coming home even to Americans in blue states who feel a threat to abortion based on all of these actions.”
NEW YORK (AP) — In a new video posted early Election Day, Beyoncé channels Pamela Anderson in the television program “Baywatch” – red one-piece swimsuit and all – and asks viewers to vote.
In the two-and-a-half-minute clip, set to most of “Bodyguard,” a four-minute cut from her 2024 country album “Cowboy Carter,” Beyoncé cosplays as Anderson’s character before concluding with a simple message, written in white text: “Happy Beylloween,” followed by “Vote.”
At a rally for Donald Trump in Pittsburgh on Monday night, the former president spoke dismissively about Beyoncé’s appearance at a Kamala Harris rally in Houston in October, drawing boos for the megastar from his supporters.
“Beyoncé would come in. Everyone’s expecting a couple of songs. There were no songs. There was no happiness,” Trump said.
She did not perform — unlike in 2016, when she performed at a presidential campaign rally for Hillary Clinton in Cleveland – but she endorsed Harris and gave a moving speech, initially joined onstage by her Destiny’s Child bandmate Kelly Rowland.
“I’m not here as a celebrity, I’m not here as a politician. I’m here as a mother,” Beyoncé said.
“A mother who cares deeply about the world my children and all of our children live in, a world where we have the freedom to control our bodies, a world where we’re not divided,” she said at the rally in Houston, her hometown.
“Imagine our daughters growing up seeing what’s possible with no ceilings, no limitations,” she continued. “We must vote, and we need you.”
Harris used the song in July during her first official public appearance as a presidential candidate at her campaign headquarters in Delaware. That same month, Beyoncé’s mother, Tina Knowles, publicly endorsed Harris for president.
Beyoncé gave permission to Harris to use the song, a campaign official who was granted anonymity to discuss private campaign operations confirmed to The Associated Press.
Outside of sports and a “Cold front coming down from Canada,” American news media only report on Canadian events that they believe are, or will be, influential to the US. Therefore, when Justin Trudeau’s announcement, having finally read the room, that Canada will be reducing the number of permanent residents admitted by more than 20 percent and temporary residents like skilled workers and college students will be cut by more than half made news south of the border, I knew the American media felt Trudeau’s about-face on immigration was newsworthy because many Americans would relate to Trudeau realizing Canada was accepting more immigrants than it could manage and are hoping their next POTUS will follow Trudeau’s playbook.
Canada, with lots of space and lacking convenient geographical ways for illegal immigrants to enter the country, though still many do, has a global reputation for being incredibly accepting of immigrants. On the surface, Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver appear to be multicultural havens. However, as the saying goes, “Too much of a good thing is never good,” resulting in a sharp rise in anti-immigrant sentiment, which you can almost taste in the air. A growing number of Canadians, regardless of their political affiliation, are blaming recent immigrants for causing the housing affordability crises, inflation, rise in crime and unemployment/stagnant wages.
Throughout history, populations have engulfed themselves in a tribal frenzy, a psychological state where people identify strongly with their own group, often leading to a ‘us versus them’ mentality. This has led to quick shifts from complacency to panic and finger-pointing at groups outside their tribe, a phenomenon that is not unique to any particular culture or time period.
My take on why the American news media found Trudeau’s blatantly obvious attempt to save his political career, balancing appeasement between the pitchfork crowd, who want a halt to immigration until Canada gets its house in order, and immigrant voters, who traditionally vote Liberal, newsworthy; the American news media, as do I, believe immigration fatigue is why Kamala Harris is going to lose on November 5th.
Because they frequently get the outcome wrong, I don’t take polls seriously. According to polls in 2014, Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives and Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals were in a dead heat in Ontario, yet Wynne won with more than twice as many seats. In the 2018 Quebec election, most polls had the Coalition Avenir Québec with a 1-to-5-point lead over the governing Liberals. The result: The Coalition Avenir Québec enjoyed a landslide victory, winning 74 of 125 seats. Then there’s how the 2016 US election polls showing Donald Trump didn’t have a chance of winning against Hillary Clinton were ridiculously way off, highlighting the importance of the election day poll and, applicable in this election as it was in 2016, not to discount ‘shy Trump supporters;’ voters who support Trump but are hesitant to express their views publicly due to social or political pressure.
My distrust in polls aside, polls indicate Harris is leading by a few points. One would think that Trump’s many over-the-top shenanigans, which would be entertaining were he not the POTUS or again seeking the Oval Office, would have him far down in the polls. Trump is toe-to-toe with Harris in the polls because his approach to the economy—middle-class Americans are nostalgic for the relatively strong economic performance during Trump’s first three years in office—and immigration, which Americans are hyper-focused on right now, appeals to many Americans. In his quest to win votes, Trump is doing what anyone seeking political office needs to do: telling the people what they want to hear, strategically using populism—populism that serves your best interests is good populism—to evoke emotional responses. Harris isn’t doing herself any favours, nor moving voters, by going the “But, but… the orange man is bad!” route, while Trump cultivates support from “weird” marginal voting groups.
To Harris’s credit, things could have fallen apart when Biden abruptly stepped aside. Instead, Harris quickly clinched the nomination and had a strong first few weeks, erasing the deficit Biden had given her. The Democratic convention was a success, as was her acceptance speech. Her performance at the September 10th debate with Donald Trump was first-rate.
Harris’ Achilles heel is she’s now making promises she could have made and implemented while VP, making immigration and the economy Harris’ liabilities, especially since she’s been sitting next to Biden, watching the US turn into the circus it has become. These liabilities, basically her only liabilities, negate her stance on abortion, democracy, healthcare, a long-winning issue for Democrats, and Trump’s character. All Harris has offered voters is “feel-good vibes” over substance. In contrast, Trump offers the tangible political tornado (read: steamroll the problems Americans are facing) many Americans seek. With Trump, there’s no doubt that change, admittedly in a messy fashion, will happen. If enough Americans believe the changes he’ll implement will benefit them and their country…
The case against Harris on immigration, at a time when there’s a huge global backlash to immigration, even as the American news media are pointing out, in famously immigrant-friendly Canada, is relatively straightforward: During the first three years of the Biden-Harris administration, illegal Southern border crossings increased significantly.
The words illegal immigration, to put it mildly, irks most Americans. On the legal immigration front, according to Forbes, most billion-dollar startups were founded by immigrants. Google, Microsoft, and Oracle, to name three, have immigrants as CEOs. Immigrants, with tech skills and an entrepreneurial thirst, have kept America leading the world. I like to think that Americans and Canadians understand the best immigration policy is to strategically let enough of these immigrants in who’ll increase GDP and tax base and not rely on social programs. In other words, Americans and Canadians, and arguably citizens of European countries, expect their governments to be more strategic about immigration.
The days of the words on a bronze plaque mounted inside the Statue of Liberty pedestal’s lower level, “Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free…” are no longer tolerated. Americans only want immigrants who’ll benefit America.
Does Trump demagogue the immigration issue with xenophobic and racist tropes, many of which are outright lies, such as claiming Haitian immigrants in Ohio are abducting and eating pets? Absolutely. However, such unhinged talk signals to Americans who are worried about the steady influx of illegal immigrants into their country that Trump can handle immigration so that it’s beneficial to the country as opposed to being an issue of economic stress.
In many ways, if polls are to be believed, Harris is paying the price for Biden and her lax policies early in their term. Yes, stimulus spending quickly rebuilt the job market, but at the cost of higher inflation. Loosen border policies at a time when anti-immigrant sentiment was increasing was a gross miscalculation, much like Trudeau’s immigration quota increase, and Biden indulging himself in running for re-election should never have happened.
If Trump wins, Democrats will proclaim that everyone is sexist, racist and misogynous, not to mention a likely White Supremacist, and for good measure, they’ll beat the “voter suppression” button. If Harris wins, Trump supporters will repeat voter fraud—since July, Elon Musk has tweeted on Twitter at least 22 times about voters being “imported” from abroad—being widespread.
Regardless of who wins tomorrow, Americans need to cool down; and give the divisive rhetoric a long overdue break. The right to an opinion belongs to everyone. Someone whose opinion differs from yours is not by default sexist, racist, a fascist or anything else; they simply disagree with you. Americans adopting the respectful mindset to agree to disagree would be the best thing they could do for the United States of America.
PHOENIX (AP) — Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent proponent of debunked public health claims whom Donald Trump has promised to put in charge of health initiatives, said Saturday that Trump would push to remove fluoride from drinking water on his first day in office if elected president.
Fluoride strengthens teeth and reduces cavities by replacing minerals lost during normal wear and tear, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The addition of low levels of fluoride to drinking water has long been considered one of the greatest public health achievements of the last century.
Kennedy made the declaration Saturday on the social media platform X alongside a variety of claims about the heath effects of fluoride.
“On January 20, the Trump White House will advise all U.S. water systems to remove fluoride from public water,” Kennedy wrote. Trump and his wife, Melania Trump, “want to Make America Healthy Again,” he added, repeating a phrase Trump often uses and links to Kennedy.
Trump told NBC News on Sunday that he had not spoken to Kennedy about fluoride yet, “but it sounds OK to me. You know it’s possible.”
The former president declined to say whether he would seek a Cabinet role for Kennedy, a job that would require Senate confirmation, but added, “He’s going to have a big role in the administration.”
Asked whether banning certain vaccines would be on the table, Trump said he would talk to Kennedy and others about that. Trump described Kennedy as “a very talented guy and has strong views.”
The sudden and unexpected weekend social media post evoked the chaotic policymaking that defined Trump’s White House tenure, when he would issue policy declarations on Twitter at virtually all hours. It also underscored the concerns many experts have about Kennedy, who has long promoted debunked theories about vaccine safety, having influence over U.S. public health.
In 1950, federal officials endorsed water fluoridation to prevent tooth decay, and continued to promote it even after fluoride toothpaste brands hit the market several years later. Though fluoride can come from a number of sources, drinking water is the main source for Americans, researchers say.
Officials lowered their recommendation for drinking water fluoride levels in 2015 to address a tooth condition called fluorosis, that can cause splotches on teeth and was becoming more common in U.S. kids.
In August, a federal agency determined “with moderate confidence” that there is a link between higher levels of fluoride exposure and lower IQ in kids. The National Toxicology Program based its conclusion on studies involving fluoride levels at about twice the recommended limit for drinking water.
A federal judge later cited that study in ordering the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to further regulate fluoride in drinking water. U.S. District Judge Edward Chen cautioned that it’s not certain that the amount of fluoride typically added to water is causing lower IQ in kids, but he concluded that mounting research points to an unreasonable risk that it could be. He ordered the EPA to take steps to lower that risk, but didn’t say what those measures should be.
In his X post Saturday, Kennedy tagged Michael Connett, the lead attorney representing the plaintiff in that lawsuit, the environmental advocacy group Food & Water Watch.
Kennedy’s anti-vaccine organization has a lawsuit pending against news organizations including The Associated Press, accusing them of violating antitrust laws by taking action to identify misinformation, including about COVID-19 and COVID-19 vaccines. Kennedy is on leave from the group but is listed as one of its attorneys in the lawsuit.
What role Kennedy might hold if Trump wins on Tuesday remains unclear. Kennedy recently told NewsNation that Trump asked him to “reorganize” agencies including the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health, the Food and Drug Administration and some agencies under the Department of Agriculture.
But for now, the former independent presidential candidate has become one of Trump’s top surrogates. Trump frequently mentions having the support of Kennedy, a scion of a Democratic dynasty and the son of former Attorney General Robert Kennedy and nephew of President John F. Kennedy.
Kennedy traveled with Trump Friday and spoke at his rallies in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Trump said Saturday that he told Kennedy: “You can work on food, you can work on anything you want” except oil policy.
“He wants health, he wants women’s health, he wants men’s health, he wants kids, he wants everything,” Trump added.
