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Rio Tinto Says China's Economy Faces a 'Big Real Estate Issue' – Financial Post

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(Bloomberg) — Miner Rio Tinto Group sees a host of near-term economic challenges in China, including in the country’s real estate industry, but reaffirmed its positive medium- and long-term outlook.

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“It has been bumpy but I think we need to remember that they have, in effect, come out of Covid a year after us,” Chairman Dominic Barton told Bloomberg Television in an interview on Monday. He added: “There are also challenges, as you mentioned. There is a big real estate issue.”

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China’s recovery since Asia’s largest economy shed Covid Zero curbs has disappointed, with continued weakness in the property sector. Figures on Monday showed inflation eased to zero in June, while factory-gate prices fell further, underlining continued weakness in demand. That’s been a headwind for commodities including iron ore, a mainstay Rio product and key profit driver.

Policymakers were seeking a new balance, with a greater priority on high-quality growth, Barton said. “They want to see more focus on the consumer, services, that type of thing. But those are not easy to make happen.”

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Iron ore fell 13% in the second quarter, overturning gains seen in the first three months. Benchmark futures in Singapore were 2.4% lower at $105.15 a ton at 12:01 p.m. in Singapore, set for the lowest close in about a month.

Copper also dropped, with three-month futures declining 0.5% to $8,328 a ton on the London Metal Exchange.

“The question is you can’t force consumers to buy — they’re going to buy when they’re confident,” Barton said, adding that Chinese households were currently saving rather than spending. “But there are enough of the fundamentals to feel good about the prospects as they move forward.”

The Rio Tinto chairman highlighted the need for continued urbanization in China as a source of sustained iron ore demand, while also repeating his company’s plan to boost its exposure to copper, lithium and nickel as consumption surges to meet the needs of the global energy transition. 

“We are so short of copper as humans it’s not funny,” Barton said.

—With assistance from Kathleen Hays.

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Economy

Liberals announce expansion to mortgage eligibility, draft rights for renters, buyers

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OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.

She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.

The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.

Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.

Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.

The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.

The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales up 1.4% in July at $71B

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.

The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.

The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.

Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.

Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.

In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX gains almost 100 points, U.S. markets also higher ahead of rate decision

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TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets climbed to their best week of the year.

“It’s been almost a complete opposite or retracement of what we saw last week,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.

While last week saw a “healthy” pullback on weaker economic data, this week investors appeared to be buying the dip and hoping the central bank “comes to the rescue,” said Petursson.

Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its key interest rate for the first time in several years after it significantly hiked it to fight inflation.

But the magnitude of that first cut has been the subject of debate, and the market appears split on whether the cut will be a quarter of a percentage point or a larger half-point reduction.

Petursson thinks it’s clear the smaller cut is coming. Economic data recently hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been that bad either, he said — and inflation may have come down significantly, but it’s not defeated just yet.

“I think they’re going to be very steady,” he said, with one small cut at each of their three decisions scheduled for the rest of 2024, and more into 2025.

“I don’t think there’s a sense of urgency on the part of the Fed that they have to do something immediately.

A larger cut could also send the wrong message to the markets, added Petursson: that the Fed made a mistake in waiting this long to cut, or that it’s seeing concerning signs in the economy.

It would also be “counter to what they’ve signaled,” he said.

More important than the cut — other than the new tone it sets — will be what Fed chair Jerome Powell has to say, according to Petursson.

“That’s going to be more important than the size of the cut itself,” he said.

In Canada, where the central bank has already cut three times, Petursson expects two more before the year is through.

“Here, the labour situation is worse than what we see in the United States,” he said.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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