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Bank of Canada’s latest rate hikes are signs it made a ‘mistake’: analysts

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The Bank of Canada has shifted to a less prescriptive messaging strategy than it used in January when it signaled a rate-hike pause that reignited the housing market, which added to inflation and the need to resume tightening five months later.

Last week after lifting rates to a 22-year high of 5.0 per cent, Governor Tiff Macklem struck a more hawkish tone than when he announced a pause in January, warning the bank could hike again if economic data shows it is needed.

That switch could leave the BoC less vulnerable to criticism when forecasts go awry, leaving investors and borrowers to arrive at their own conclusions in assessing the outlook for interest rates.

“Every time (the members of the governing council) try to provide that hand-holding forward guidance, it doesn’t work,” said Derek Holt, vice president of capital markets economics at Scotiabank.

Central bankers around the world have underestimated inflation and grappled with communication. Macklem came under a rare attack last year from opposition politicians for misjudging inflation and locking in to a rigid forward guidance.

“We are turning the corner on inflation,” Macklem told reporters in January when the BoC became the first major central bank to announce a pause. “If economic developments and — in particular — if inflation comes down in line with our forecast, that will confirm that we have likely done enough.”

The markets quickly priced in a half-percentage-point in cuts by the end of the year, and the slumping housing market recovered. The average sale price of a home increased 19 per cent between January and May, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

That jump in housing prices “is likely to persist and boost inflation by as much as 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2023, compared with the January outlook,” the BoC said last week.

 

‘It made sense’

Last week, Macklem defended the decision.

“It made sense to pause,” he said, to assess the effect of the most rapid increase in rates in the BoC’s history. But then the economy outperformed the bank’s expectations, he added, which is something that has happened repeatedly in recent years.

The central bank’s tightening campaign is a major concern for Canadians who loaded up on cheap mortgages and took on credit card and other debt in recent years. Household debt as a proportion of disposable income rose to 184.5 per cent in the first quarter, near a record high, which means there is $1.85 in debt for every dollar of household disposable income.

Macklem did not use the word “pause” while announcing last week’s 25-basis-point hike, the second in as many months, though some analysts now expect the bank to do just that.

“Now maybe you’re getting a certain maturity of the central bank that says, ‘We’re not going to do that again,’” Holt said.

Though many economists are doubtful another rate hike is coming, money markets are still not shifting their bets toward a possible cut as they did in January, both because of the uncertainty of the inflation outlook and the bank’s threat to raise again if needed.

Macklem has delivered misleading messaging before.

He assured Canadians during the pandemic that rates would rise only in 2023 when it expected the economic slack to be absorbed, but the central bank began hiking rates in March 2022 as inflation spiked.

In October 2021, Macklem forecast inflation would return close to the central bank’s two per cent target by the end of 2022, only to push back that goal in January of this year to end 2024. Last week, the bank further delayed that target to mid-2025.

Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex LLC, said the fact that the BoC hiked not once, but twice starting in June after announcing the pause is evidence that it knew there was ground to be made up.

“The June hike wasn’t a one-off … it wasn’t just an insurance policy, but (a sign) they think that they made a mistake.”

 

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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