Business

Fed raises interest rates again as inflation fight continues

Published

1 year ago

July 26, 2023

U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. Photo by Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

WASHINGTON — The United States Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate Wednesday for the 11th time in 17 months, a streak of hikes that are intended to curb inflation but that also carry the risk of going too far and triggering a recession.

The move lifted the Fed’s benchmark short-term rate from roughly 5.1 per cent to 5.3 per cent — its highest level since 2001. Coming on top of its previous rate hikes, the Fed’s latest move could lead to further increases in the costs of mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and business borrowing.

Though inflation has eased to its slowest pace in two years, Wednesday’s hike reflects the concern of Fed officials that the economy is still growing too fast for inflation to fall back to their two per cent target. With consumer confidence reaching its highest level in two years, Americans keep spending — crowding airplanes, travelling overseas and flocking to concerts and movie theatres. Most crucially, businesses keep hiring, with the unemployment rate still near half-century lows.

In a statement, the Fed said the economy “has been expanding at a moderate pace,” a slight upgrade from its assessment in June. It’s a sign that it sees the economy as slightly healthier than it was just last month.

Some Fed officials have said they worry that the still-brisk pace of job growth will lead workers to demand higher pay to make up for two years of inflationary prices. Sharp wage gains can perpetuate inflation if companies respond by raising prices for their customers.

The steady easing of inflation pressures has lifted hopes that the Fed can pull off a difficult “soft landing,” in which its rate hikes would continue to cool inflation without sending the economy tumbling into a painful recession.

Economists at Goldman Sachs Inc. have downgraded the likelihood of recession to just 20 per cent, from 35 per cent earlier this year. Those at Deutsche Bank, among the first large banks to forecast a recession, have also been encouraged by the economy’s direction, though they still expect a downturn later this year.

Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank’s chief U.S. economist, has pointed to durable consumer spending as a key driver of growth. Many Americans still have savings stemming from the pandemic, when the government distributed stimulus checks and people saved by spending less on travel, restaurants and entertainment.

Hiring has remained healthy, with employers having added 209,000 jobs in June, with the jobless rate reaching an ultra-low 3.6 per cent. That’s about where it was when the Fed began raising rates in March 2022 — a sign of economic resilience that almost no one had foreseen.

Year-over-year inflation in June was three per cent, according to the government, down sharply from a peak of 9.1 per cent in June 2022. One cautionary note is that an inflation measure preferred by the Fed, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, was still up 4.6 per cent in May from a year earlier.

Some Fed officials, including Christopher Waller, an outspoken member of its Board of Governors, and Lorie Logan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, have said they think the cumulative effects of the previous rate hikes have already been baked into the economy. With inflation still above the Fed’s target, they think additional hikes may be needed to further slow price pressures.

When the Fed’s policymakers last met in June, they signalled that they expected to raise rates twice more. By the time they meet again Sept. 19-20, they will have much more economic data in hand: Two more inflation reports, two reports on hiring and unemployment and updated figures on consumer spending and wages. Some economists think the Fed might decide to forgo a rate increase in September before weighing a possible hike at its meeting in November.

For the Fed, the drop in inflation from roughly nine per cent to three per cent was the relatively easy part, some analysts say. Getting it down to the Fed’s two per cent target will be harder and take longer.

Other experts say they think the recent mild inflation readings can be sustained. Rental cost increases, which have already fallen, should drop further as more apartment buildings are completed.

Though the Fed began tightening credit before central banks in many other developed countries did, most others are now following suit. The European Central Bank is expected to announce its own quarter-point rate hike on Thursday. Though inflation has declined in the 20 countries that use the euro, it remains higher there than in the United States.

The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its policies unchanged when it meets next week even though prices there are creeping higher after roughly two decades of declining prices. The Bank of England has been among the most aggressive in Europe, having raised its key rate last month by a half-point to a 15-year high of five per cent. Year-over-year inflation in the U.K. reached a painful 8.7 per cent in May.

On Friday, the U.S. government will release fresh data on consumer spending in June and an update on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The inflation measure is expected to slow to just three per cent compared with a year earlier. That would match the figure most recently reported in the government’s better-known consumer price index. And it would be down sharply from a 3.8 per cent year-over-year increase in May.

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Business

Canada Goose to get into eyewear through deal with Marchon

Published

3 hours ago

September 19, 2024

Anne Joseph

TORONTO – Canada Goose Holdings Inc. says it has signed a deal that will result in the creation of its first eyewear collection.

The deal announced on Thursday by the Toronto-based luxury apparel company comes in the form of an exclusive, long-term global licensing agreement with Marchon Eyewear Inc.

The terms and value of the agreement were not disclosed, but Marchon produces eyewear for brands including Lacoste, Nike, Calvin Klein, Ferragamo, Longchamp and Zeiss.

Marchon plans to roll out both sunglasses and optical wear under the Canada Goose name next spring, starting in North America.

Canada Goose says the eyewear will be sold through optical retailers, department stores, Canada Goose shops and its website.

Canada Goose CEO Dani Reiss told The Canadian Press in August that he envisioned his company eventually expanding into eyewear and luggage.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GOOS)

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Business

A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

Published

4 hours ago

September 19, 2024

Anne Joseph

Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

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Business

TD CEO to retire next year, takes responsibility for money laundering failures

Published

7 hours ago

September 19, 2024

Anne Joseph

TORONTO – TD Bank Group, which is mired in a money laundering scandal in the U.S., says chief executive Bharat Masrani will retire next year.

Masrani, who will retire officially on April 10, 2025, says the bank’s, “anti-money laundering challenges,” took place on his watch and he takes full responsibility.

The bank named Raymond Chun, TD’s group head, Canadian personal banking, as his successor.

As part of a transition plan, Chun will become chief operating officer on Nov. 1 before taking over the top job when Masrani steps down at the bank’s annual meeting next year.

TD also announced that Riaz Ahmed, group head, wholesale banking and president and CEO of TD Securities, will retire at the end of January 2025.

TD has taken billions in charges related to ongoing U.S. investigations into the failure of its anti-money laundering program.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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