News

What is the right amount of immigration for Canada?

Published

1 year ago

August 1, 2023

As Canada’s immigration levels continue to increase—with an estimated 1.45 million people expected between 2023 and 2025—a question can emerge for many in the country: what is the right amount of immigration for Canada?

A recent Desjardins study looks to address this question, with the context of Canada’s demographic and economic goals (which the government addresses through immigration), as well as the infrastructure of Canada’s public services and federal supports.

The economic situation

One major objective of Canada’s immigration system is to address labour market shortages, which Canada’s ageing population cannot sustain. There has historically been a positive relationship between Canada’s economic potential (as measured through the country’s economic output gap), and the admission of economic temporary (those on a work permit) and permanent residents (the largest class of newcomers Canada admits every year).

Recently however, Desjardins reports a shift in this relationship, with a greater number of newcomers arriving than the economic output gap justifies. This paired with a low unemployment rate seems to suggest that there are now too many newcomers for economic growth to justify.

However, despite Canada’s renewed immigration efforts in recent years, the national unemployment rate has largely held steady at roughly 5%. Simultaneously, job vacancies have remained elevated over national unemployment. All of this in context suggests that while Canada is approaching its economic potential through immigration, there are still many jobs available in the economy. Noting further that many temporary foreign workers arrive to work in Canada to fill a specific labour market need (often through an LMIA facilitated process) helps understand why this may be the case. Due to these elevated vacancies, and Canada’s inability to fill these positions with its own population, one can reasonably say that continued immigration at the current level is justified economically.

Further to this (and in relation to Canada’s economic potential) is the longer-term effects that economic immigration has on Canada’s economy. Attracting newcomers to Canada helps increase both potential GDP growth, and potential GDP per capita. This is due both to the fact that recent immigrants are more likely to be employed than those born in Canada, and because those immigrating to Canada tend to be younger, yielding more potential work hours and years of work. Notably growth of the working age population (aged 15-64) in Canada was entirely driven by permanent and non-permanent immigrants in 2022. This suggests that from an economic perspective, immigration can help meet Canada’s needs and goals, both in the short and long-term.

The demographic situation

Central to the discussion on the economic benefit of immigration, is Canada’s ageing population. Due to Canada’s national healthcare system, elderly people past working age (above 64) can put a pronounced strain on Canada’s economy. This is due to the fact the medical expenses tend to increase with age, and Canada’s healthcare system ensures that most of these costs are not the burden of the individual.

This effect can be further pronounced in provinces without huge population centres, which have a smaller economy, a wider ratio of ageing to working age populations, and experience less immigration to address their labour market needs. According to the Fiscal Sustainability Report written by Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Officer, provincial government healthcare spending per capita is expected to double between 2020 and 2040, eventually reaching $10,000 CAD per year.

The Desjardins report takes this question further asking what level of immigration would help balance the expenses of Canada’s ageing population with economic growth—essentially enabling a rising standard of living while ensuring sustainability of public finances. According to Desjardins, to enable the current ratio of working age people to the ageing population through to 2040, Canada would need to increase its working age population by 2.2% on average annually. To put this into perspective, in 2022 Canada’s working age population grew by 256,000 new economic permanent residents, and 756,000 work permit holder—representing a working age population growth of just 1.6%.

If Canada wanted to target the historical ratio between ageing and working-class populations (i.e.: the national average between 1990 and 2015) from now to 2040, the Canadian government would need to increase its working age population by 4.5% annually. Under both scenarios, Canada would need to greatly increase working age immigration from 2022 levels—a year which itself represented the greatest rate of working age population growth since 1989.

In light of these figures, economic immigration also seems to be a key solution to Canada’s demographic problems, and the economic toll that these problems can entail. Additionally, is the inclusion of the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) as Canada’s primary path of economic immigration. PNPs help spread the benefit of economic immigration throughout Canada’s provinces, addressing key labour shortages; and can greatly relieve the stress on provincial economies in the context of the growing medical expenses of their ageing populations.

Is it so simple?

While the above problems make a strong case for increasing immigration to Canada, there are often costs associated with welcoming so many people to a new country, especially in such a short time frame.

One key area this has been revealed is in Canada’s housing market. Due to the rising demand created from Canada’s growing working age population, affordability of all types of housing has fallen in Canada. Further to this problem is the lack of new housing projects being started in the context of higher interest rates, growing production costs, and lack of pre-sale interest. Desjardins initially estimated that Canada would need at least 100,000 new housing starts annually to offset growing housing costs—however the organisation now believes that this number needs revision, due to the high number of temporary residents (i.e.: work and study permit holders) being welcomed annually as well. Absent these housing starts, home buying and rental costs are only expected to increase.

This represents a potentially significant problem for Canada, as lack of affordable housing may deter talented workers from choosing Canada as a destination to settle and decrease the country’s overall openness to immigration.

Conclusion

Immigration is important for the long-term economic success of Canada as foreign-born workers help meet short-term labor market needs and contribute to long-term potential GDP growth. Immigration further supports Canada’s demography, especially in the context of its ageing population. However, surging population growth is causing strains, particularly in the housing market. The government could look to tighten requirements for non-permanent residents to alleviate housing affordability issues, however this could also constrain growth in the working-age population and raise concerns about fiscal sustainability, especially in Canada’s wider provinces. It is important for the federal government to balance immigration policy with a results-driven approach aimed at increasing housing affordability and quality of living for Canadians as a whole.

Source link

News

With grief lingering, Blue Jackets GM Waddell places focus on hockey in wake of Gaudreau’s death

Published

2 hours ago

September 16, 2024

Anne Joseph

BUFFALO, N.Y. (AP) — Hearing the familiar sounds of clacking sticks and pucks banging off the boards and glass while watching Columbus Blue Jackets prospects from the stands of a cold rink on a warm late-summer afternoon was not enough to wash away the lingering residuals of grief for Don Waddell on Saturday.

That, the Blue Jackets’ general manager acknowledged, will take more time than anyone can guess — weeks, months, perhaps an entire season and beyond.

What mattered is how spending the weekend attending the Sabres Prospects Challenge represented a start to what Waddell called among the first steps in refocusing on hockey and the future in the aftermath of the deaths of Columbus star Johnny Gaudreau and his brother, Matthew, who were struck by a suspected drunken driver while riding bicycles on Aug 29.

“We got to play hockey,” Waddell said. “We’re not going to forget about Johnny and his family, the Gaudreau family.”

He then reflected on the speech Johnny Gaudreau’s wife, Meredith, made during the brothers’ funeral on Monday, by urging those in mourning to move forward as she will while focusing on raising their children.

“Everybody knows that Johnny wants them to play hockey,” Waddell said. “And everybody’s rallying around that.”

The resumption of hockey in Columbus began last week, when most Blue Jackets players returned to their facility to be together and lean on each other at the urging of Waddell and team captain Boone Jenner. And it will continue on Thursday, when the team opens training camp, exactly three weeks since the Gaudreaus were killed.

“Tragic. Senseless. But now we got to focus on trying to get our team ready to play hockey this year,” Waddell said. “We all mourn and heal differently, but I think as a team being together like that is going to be critical for them to get moving forward.”

Tragedy is no stranger to Waddell or the Blue Jackets.

Waddell was general manager of the then-Atlanta Thrashers in 2003 when Dany Heatley lost control of his car and struck a wall, with the crash killing passenger and teammate Dan Snyder. In 2021, Blue Jackets goalie Matiss Kivlenieks died during a July Fourth fireworks accident.

Waddell placed the emphasis on himself and coach Dean Evason — both newcomers to Columbus this offseason — to guide the team through what will be an emotional season.

“Now, do I think there’s going to be some dark days? I won’t be surprised,” Waddell said.

Reminders of the Gaudreaus’ deaths remain apparent, and reflected in Buffalo on Friday night. A moment of silence was held in tribute to the brothers before the opening faceoff of a game between the Blue Jackets and Sabres.

Afterward, Columbus prospect Gavin Brindley recalled the times he spent with Johnny Gaudreau in Columbus and as teammates representing the United States at the world hockey championships in the Czech Republic in May.

“He was one of the biggest mentors for me at the world championships,” Brindley said. “I couldn’t tell you how many times we hung out with Meredith, pictures on my phone. It’s just so hard to look back and see that kind of stuff.”

The NHL and NHL Players’ Association are providing the Blue Jackets help in the form of grief counseling, crowd security at vigils and addressing hockey issues, such as potentially altering the league’s salary cap rules to provide Columbus relief from having to reach the NHL minimum payroll because of the void left by Gaudreau’s contract.

“The Blue Jackets, I don’t think anybody’s focused from an organizational standpoint, from a hockey standpoint as to what comes next, because I think everybody’s still in shock,” NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman told The Associated Press last week. “I don’t think anybody’s focused right now other than on the grieving part, which is understandable.”

Much of the burden has fallen to Waddell, who has been in discussions with the NHL and the NHLPA and dealing with outreach programs with the Blue Jackets’ partner OhioHealth, while also overseeing preparations for training camp and gauging his prospects in Buffalo.

There’s also his roster to attend to, which he said has two openings at forward, one involving Justin Danforth, who may miss the start of the season because of a wrist injury. Waddell didn’t have to mention the second opening.

Tiring and emotional as it’s been, Waddell found comfort being in his element, a rink, and looking ahead to the start of training camp.

“The guys are in really good shape. We’ve done a lot of testing already and they’re eager to get going,” Waddell said. “We have a reason to play for. And we’ll make the best of it.”

The Blue Jackets later Sunday signed veteran winger James van Riemsdyk to a one-year contract worth $900,000.

“James van Riemsdyk has been a very consistent, productive player throughout his career,” Waddell said. “Bringing him to Columbus will not only provide depth to our group up front, but also valuable leadership and another veteran presence in our dressing room.”

___

AP Hockey Writer Stephen Whyno in New York contributed to this report.

___

AP NHL:

Source link

News

PSG says defender Nuno Mendes target of racial abuse after a French league game

Published

2 hours ago

September 16, 2024

Anne Joseph

PARIS (AP) — Paris Saint-Germain defender Nuno Mendes was the target of abusive and racist comments on social media after a French league game.

The club condemned the abuse and expressed its “full support” Sunday for the Portugal left back, who was targeted following PSG’s 3-1 win against Brest on Saturday.

Mendes, who is Black, shared on his Instagram account a racist message he received.

During the match, Mendes brought down Ludovic Ajorque in the box for a penalty that Romain Del Castillo converted to give Brest the lead.

“Paris Saint-Germain doesn’t tolerate racism, antisemitism or any other form of discrimination,” the club said. “The racial insults directed at Nuno Mendes are totally unacceptable … we are working with the relevant authorities and associations to ensure those responsible are held accountable for their actions.”

___

AP soccer:

Source link

News

Slovenia’s Tadej Pogacar wins Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal

Published

2 hours ago

September 16, 2024

Anne Joseph

MONTREAL – Tadej Pogacar was so dominant on Sunday, Canada’s Michael Woods called it a race for second.

Pogacar, a three-time Tour de France champion from Slovenia, pedalled to a resounding victory at the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal.

The UAE Team Emirates leader crossed the finish line 24 seconds ahead of Spain’s Pello Bilbao of Bahrain — Victorious to win the demanding 209.1-kilometre race on a sunny, 28 C day in Montreal. France’s Julian Alaphilippe of Soudal Quick-Step was third.

“He’s the greatest rider of all time, he’s a formidable opponent,” said Woods, who finished 45 seconds behind the leader in eighth. “If you’re not at your very, very best, then you can forget racing with him, and today was kind of representative of that.

“He’s at such a different level that if you follow him, it can be lights out.”

Pogacar slowed down before the last turn to celebrate with the crowd, high-five fans on Avenue du Parc and cruise past the finish line with his arms in the air after more than five hours on the bike.

The 25-year-old joined Belgium’s Greg Van Avermaet as the only multi-time winners in Montreal after claiming the race in 2022. He also redeemed a seventh-place finish at the Quebec City Grand Prix on Friday.

“I was disappointed, because I had such good legs that I didn’t do better than seventh,” Pogacar said. “To bounce back after seventh to victory here, it’s just an incredible feeling.”

It’s Pogacar’s latest win in a dominant year that includes victories at the Tour de France and Giro d’Italia.

Ottawa’s Woods (Israel Premier-Tech) tied a career-best in front of the home crowd in Montreal, but hoped for more after claiming a stage at the Spanish Vuelta two weeks ago.

“I wanted a better result,” the 37-year-old rider said. “My goal was a podium, but at the same time I’m happy with the performance. In bike racing, you can’t always get the result you want and I felt like I raced really well, I animated the race, I felt like I was up there.”

Pogacar completed the 17 climbs up and down Mount Royal near downtown in five hours 28 minutes 15 seconds.

He made his move with 23.3 kilometres to go, leaving the peloton in his dust as he pedalled into the lead — one he never relinquished.

Bilbao, Alaphilippe, Alex Aranburu (Movistar Team) and Bart Lemmen (Visma–Lease) chased in a group behind him, with Bilbao ultimately separating himself from the pack. But he never came close to catching Pogacar, who built a 35-second lead with one lap left to go.

“It was still a really hard race today, but the team was on point,” Pogacar said. “We did really how we planned, and the race situation was good for us. We make it hard in the last final laps, and they set me up for a (takeover) two laps to go, and it was all perfect.”

Ottawa’s Derek Gee, who placed ninth in this year’s Tour de France, finished 48th in Montreal, and called it a “hard day” in the heat.

“I think everyone knows when you see Tadej on the start line that it’s just going to be full gas,” Gee said.

Israel Premier-Tech teammate Hugo Houle of Sainte-Perpétue, Que., was 51st.

Houle said he heard Pogacar inform his teammates on the radio that he was ready to attack with two laps left in the race.

“I said then, well, clearly it’s over for me,” Houle said. “You see, cycling isn’t that complicated.”

Australia’s Michael Matthews won the Quebec City GP for a record third time on Friday, but did not finish in Montreal. The two races are the only North American events on the UCI World Tour.

Michael Leonard of Oakville, Ont., and Gil Gelders and Dries De Bondt of Belgium broke away from the peloton during the second lap. Leonard led the majority of the race before losing pace with 45 kilometres to go.

Only 89 of 169 riders from 24 teams — including the Canadian national team — completed the gruelling race that features 4,573 metres in total altitude.

Next up, the riders will head to the world championships in Zurich, Switzerland from Sept. 21 to 29.

Pogacar will try to join Eddy Merckx (1974) and Stephen Roche (1987) as the only men to win three major titles in a season — known as the Triple Crown.

“Today gave me a lot of confidence, motivation,” Pogacar said. “I think we are ready for world championships.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2024.

Source link