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Real estate markets defy rate hikes: annual growth in activity persists, but there are signs of a cooling ahead

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Real estate markets in the country’s largest metro areas remained relatively strong in July despite the Bank of Canada’s most recent rate hikes.

Data from some of the key real estate boards show continued year-over-year growth in activity and continued upward momentum in prices.

In Toronto, sales posted a 7.8% year-over-year gain, while in Vancouver they were up nearly 29%.

However, Andrew Lis, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver’s director of economics and data analytics, said part of the strength is due to weaker sales a year ago as interest rates were starting to rise.

“Last July marked the point when the Bank of Canada announced their ‘super-sized’ increase to the policy rate of one full per cent, catching buyers and sellers off guard, and putting a chill on market activity at that time,” he noted.

Still, Lis notes that the current strength is against the backdrop of borrowing rates that are much higher compared to a year ago. “Despite borrowing costs being even higher than last July, sales activity surpassed the levels we saw last year, which I think says a lot about the strength of demand in our market and buyers’ ability to adapt to and qualify for higher borrowing costs,” he continued.

Signs of cooling ahead

On a monthly basis, sales in most markets were down, including in Vancouver (-3%), Toronto (-8.8%), while price gains moderated.

Pressure eased on prices thanks in part to an increase in supply as sellers have started listing homes in greater numbers, particularly in Ontario and British Columbia.

“If sustained, we would expect price gains to continue moderating in the coming months,” noted RBC economists Robert Hogue and Rachel Battaglia.

“Signs of cooling activity in some of Canada’s largest markets are consistent with our view that the spring rebound was premature, and will taper off further amid high interest rates, ongoing affordability issues and a looming recession,” they added. “We think the path ahead is more likely to be slow and bumpy, with the recovery gaining momentum when interest rates come down—a 2024 story.”

Here’s a look at the July statistics from some of the country’s largest regional real estate boards:

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Greater Toronto Area

July 2023 YoY % Change
Sales 75,250 +7.8%
Benchmark price (all housing types) $1,118,374 +4.2%
New listings 13,712 +11.5%
Active listings 15,371 +0.3%

“Home sales continued to be above last year’s levels in July, which suggests that many households have adjusted to higher borrowing costs. With that being said, it does appear that the sales momentum that we experienced earlier in the spring has stalled somewhat since the Bank of Canada restarted its rate tightening cycle in June,” said TRREB President Paul Baron.

“Compounding the impact of higher rates has been the persistent lack of listings for people to purchase compared to previous years,” he added.

Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB)


Greater Vancouver Area

July 2023 YoY % Change
Sales 2,455 +28.9%
Benchmark price (all housing types) $1,210,700 +0.5%
New listings 4,649 +17%
Active listings 10,301 -4%

“While sales remain about 15% below the 10-year average, they are also up about 30 per cent year-over-year, which is not insignificant,” said Andrew Lis, REBGV Director of Economics and Data Analytics.

“Looking under the hood of these figures, it’s easy to see why sales are posting such a large year-over-year percentage increase,” he added. “Last July marked the point when the Bank of Canada announced their ‘super-sized’ increase to the policy rate of one full per cent, catching buyers and sellers off guard, and putting a chill on market activity at that time.”

Source: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV)


Montreal Census Metropolitan Area

July 2023 YoY % Change
Sales 3,098 +1%
Median Price (single-family detached) $555,000 +1%
Median Price (condo) $395,000 0%
New listings 4,354 -9%
Active listings 14,820 +20%

“After a disappointing month of June, transaction activity is picking up in the Montreal CMA. For the first time since the summer of 2021, it is the Island of Montreal that is pushing activity in the metropolis, driven by sales of small income properties and single-family homes,” said Charles Brant, Director of the QPAREB’s Market Analysis Department.

“Clearly, some buyers are less affected by the rise in interest rates. The majority of buyers currently in the market can count on income or equity from their real estate holdings, with values compared to last year,” he added. “The many newcomers with immigration status allowing them to buy a property in Quebec are also joining the ranks of this category of buyers with good purchasing power.”

Source: Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers (QPAREB)

Calgary

July 2023 YoY % Change
Sales 2,647 +17.7%
Benchmark price (all housing types) $567,700 +5.7%
New listings 3,247 +2.2%
Active listings 3,488 -34.8%

“Continued migration to the province, along with our relative affordability, has supported the stronger demand for housing despite higher lending rates,” said CREB Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“At the same time, we continue to struggle with supply in the resale, new home and rental markets resulting in further upward pressure on home prices,” she added.

Source: Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB)


Ottawa

July 2023 YoY % Change
Sales 1,658 +11%
Average Price (residential property) $746,445 -4%
Average Price (condominium) $448,380 +2%
New listings 2,758 -14%

“Both transactions and average prices are up from last July indicating consumers remain confident in the market notwithstanding the two recent quarter-percent interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada,” said OREB President Ken Dekker.

“We’re only a month into the third quarter, but based on July’s positive indicators, we are likely to see solid year-over-year results in the second half,” he added.

Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB)

 

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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