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Gas prices are high in Canada. Experts explain why

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Gas prices are expected to reach an annual high this summer across Canada and into fall, with more than one factor causing the increase, experts say.

Canadians are already paying more at the pumps over the last week with prices skyrocketing in some areas.

According to data from the Canadian Automobile Association (CAA), the average price across the country on Aug. 16 is 169.3 cents per litre. A week ago the average was 163.9 cents per litre.

GasBuddy, a gas price indicator, shows B.C. has the highest gas price at 192.8 cents per litre, followed by Nova Scotia at 186.3 cents per litre and P.E.I. at 186 cents per litre.

A few stations in Yukon, according to GasBuddy, show high prices around 193 cents per litre, though it is not an average for prices in the territory comparable to data from other regions.

The lowest gas prices as of Aug. 16 according to GasBuddy are Alberta with a price of 146.4 cents per litre, the Northwest Territories at 159.3 cents per litre and Saskatchewan at 161.3 cents per litre.

Gas prices have been on the rise for a few months.

The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from Statistics Canada “mainly” blamed an increase in inflation on gasoline. Headline inflation increased from 2.8 per cent in June to 3.3 per cent in July.

“Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 4.1 per cent, edging up from 4.0 per cent in June,” the CPI, released Tuesday, states.

Experts say there are a few factors playing into why the cost of gas increased and why the prices are likely here to stay.

WHY GAS COSTS MORE

Michael Manjuris, professor and chair of Global Management Studies at Toronto Metropolitan University, told CTVNews.ca in an interview poor weather and a lack of supply are to blame.

One factor behind higher gas prices, Manjuris said, is a recent decision from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which controls crude oil supply to most of the world.

In June 2023, OPEC reduced the daily output of crude oil to 1 million barrels a day. This decrease drives costs up and will continue to do so as this cut is rolled out in other countries in the coming months.

“That’s a significant reduction in supply,” Manjuris said. “If there is no change in the world demand for oil…Then it’s basic economics: your supply goes down, your demand is the same, and we start to see a second factor, causing prices of retail gasoline to go up.”Storage for refined petroleum products is another concern, Manjuris said.

“We don’t have a lot of spare capacity,” he said. “So anytime there is a major weather event that hits refining areas like Texas, California or us (Canada)…That’s a significant chunk of the refining supply that gets taken off the market.”

Weather events like wildfires, tornadoes and significant storms can damage refineries that cannot be fixed quickly. Manjuris says when this occurs the plant can be down for months at a time.

“There’s a distribution center in Gretna, Man., where we have a convergence of crude oil pipelines, and twice this summer they’ve had to shut down that distribution center, only temporarily because the equipment couldn’t operate in a reliable fashion,” Majuris said.

In heatwaves, technology can malfunction and a reduction of capacity is needed or a full shutdown, he said.

PREDICTIONS FOR COMING MONTHS

Manjuris says some weather factors, like extreme heat, will not be an issue in the next few months, however, gas prices will remain elevated.

“Into late summer, early fall, all the indications I’m seeing is that the price of gasoline in southern Ontario, particularly, but across Canada, is going to go up,” he said.

Manjuris believes Canadians could expect close to $2 a litre over the next few months.

The heightened prices have been climbing for the past six months, Pedro Antunes, chief economist at the Conference Board of Canada told CTV News Channel Tuesday.

“When we’re comparing in June, we’re looking at the very strong or very high levels that we saw a year or a year prior, but in the last six months, gasoline prices have been increasing,” Antunes said.

Oil barrels have gone from US$70 to US$80, he said.

“That’s going to be reflected in gasoline prices going forward,” Antunes said.

Manjuris believes gas will continue to increase in price before it falls.

“I am personally predicting something between $1.95 and $1.98, in southern Ontario, into the early fall, but I suspect it will come back down by wintertime after that,” he said.

A petroleum summer blend costs more to make than winter blends, which is one of the factors why gas prices typically drop going into winter.

As a result of this, Manjuris says, there is always a reduction of price by about eight to nine cents a litre.

 

With files from CTVNews.ca’s Tara De Boer.

 

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One person dead, three injured and power knocked out in Winnipeg bus shelter crash

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WINNIPEG – Police in Winnipeg say one person has died and three more were injured after a pickup truck smashed into a bus shelter on Portage Avenue during the morning commute.

Police say those injured are in stable condition in hospital.

It began after a Ford F150 truck hit a pedestrian and bus shelter on Portage Avenue near Bedson Street before 8 a.m.

Another vehicle, a power pole and a gas station were also damaged before the truck came to a stop.

The crash forced commuters to be rerouted and knocked out power in the area for more than a thousand Manitoba Hydro customers.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Kamloops, B.C., man charged with murder in the death of his mother: RCMP

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KAMLOOPS, B.C. – A 35-year-old man has been charged with second-degree murder after his mother’s body was found near her Kamloops, B.C., home a year ago.

Mounties say 57-year-old Jo-Anne Donovan was found dead about a week after she had been reported missing.

RCMP says its serious crime unit launched an investigation after the body was found.

Police say they arrested Brandon Donovan on Friday after the BC Prosecution Service approved the charge.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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S&P/TSX gains almost 100 points, U.S. markets also higher ahead of rate decision

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TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets climbed to their best week of the year.

“It’s been almost a complete opposite or retracement of what we saw last week,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.

While last week saw a “healthy” pullback on weaker economic data, this week investors appeared to be buying the dip and hoping the central bank “comes to the rescue,” said Petursson.

Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its key interest rate for the first time in several years after it significantly hiked it to fight inflation.

But the magnitude of that first cut has been the subject of debate, and the market appears split on whether the cut will be a quarter of a percentage point or a larger half-point reduction.

Petursson thinks it’s clear the smaller cut is coming. Economic data recently hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been that bad either, he said — and inflation may have come down significantly, but it’s not defeated just yet.

“I think they’re going to be very steady,” he said, with one small cut at each of their three decisions scheduled for the rest of 2024, and more into 2025.

“I don’t think there’s a sense of urgency on the part of the Fed that they have to do something immediately.

A larger cut could also send the wrong message to the markets, added Petursson: that the Fed made a mistake in waiting this long to cut, or that it’s seeing concerning signs in the economy.

It would also be “counter to what they’ve signaled,” he said.

More important than the cut — other than the new tone it sets — will be what Fed chair Jerome Powell has to say, according to Petursson.

“That’s going to be more important than the size of the cut itself,” he said.

In Canada, where the central bank has already cut three times, Petursson expects two more before the year is through.

“Here, the labour situation is worse than what we see in the United States,” he said.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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