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Canadian real estate teeters and higher rates could topple it again

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Canadian real estate is like a game of Jenga and low interest rates are a key block. That block is being pulled out once again.

Canada’s five-year bond yield, which drives fixed mortgage rates, reached another 16-year high on Thursday. Average five-year fixed mortgage rates are now at 15-year highs.

What’s more, the rates that borrowers must prove they can afford (known as mortgage qualifying rates) just hit a 27-year high. Keep in mind that today’s mortgage applicants have gobs more debt than folks did 27 years ago – making it even harder to get a mortgage.

Meanwhile, a bead of sweat is forming on the brows of Bank of Canada policy makers. They see overall inflation turning back up, core inflation at risk of getting stuck in the mid-3-per-cent range, unemployment still low at 5.5 per cent, and surprising signs of growth from our biggest trading partner.

If people start to worry that inflation is heating up again, they do things that fuel even more inflation – buy sooner, pay more, ask for higher wages, etc.

The Bank of Canada simply cannot allow that to happen.

That’s why market expectations of another Bank of Canada rate hike may be too low.

Either way, real estate remains heavily dependent on buying power – i.e., how much borrowers can qualify for. The surge in mortgage rates, with or without another BoC hike, is decidedly housing-bearish.

Given CREA’s national average home price just dove 5.7 per cent in the month of July, it’s safe to say August could see another dip.

Most likely, the real estate market is going to topple over again. But it’ll be temporarily. Like at the end of a round of Jenga, the housing game will start over.

Why home prices aren’t in for a protracted bear market

Home prices are lofty for all kinds of reasons, the greatest of which is the imbalance between household formation and the supply of homes – especially in the country’s popular immigration hubs.

In a MortgageLogic.news interview this week I spoke with new Housing Minister Sean Fraser. The takeaway was twofold:

One, he seems sincere in wanting to pull almost any reasonable lever to improve housing affordability for struggling Canadians.

Two, his government appears not willing – even temporarily – to pull the one non-rate lever that would improve housing affordability the most: slowing Canada’s flood of new permanent residents.

People can debate the pros and cons of high immigration but they can’t debate this: Incessant record-high immigration puts a floor under home values – a floor that didn’t exist in past bear housing markets. That includes the 1989 to 1998 downturn, when population growth fell and real (inflation-adjusted) home values ground 21 per cent lower.

Largely because of immigration policy, our real estate market may tumble as rates and/or unemployment climb (or God help us, both), but our nine-lives real estate market will come back from the dead in due course.

That could possibly happen in time for the spring market or it could take a few years. Much depends on how long and high rates go from here, how severe unemployment gets, whether our bank regulator drops any policy bombshells on the mortgage market, etc.

For now, prospective buyers who don’t need a home urgently are getting the heck out of the way. Homebuyers can put two and two together. They saw what happened to average prices from February, 2022, to last January – down 25 per cent in 11 months despite tight inventories and a million new Canadians – because of soaring rates. And they see interest rates going orbital.

The good news is, a healthy selloff gets us closer to mortgage-rate relief. It’s partly what the Bank of Canada needs to see to press the rate-pause button again. Why? Because housing strength has fuelled inflation via higher construction costs, more demand for things such as appliances and furniture, higher housing industry incomes, wealth effects, and so on.

Looking at this solely from the lens of borrowing costs, a housing downturn today will lead to lower mortgage rates tomorrow.

Rates were sourced from the MortgageLogic.news Canadian Mortgage Rate Survey on Aug. 17, 2023. We include only providers who advertise rates online and lend in at least nine provinces. Insured rates apply to those buying with less than a 20-per-cent down payment or switching a pre-existing insured mortgage to a new lender. Uninsured rates apply to refinances and purchases over $1-million and may include applicable lender rate premiums. For providers whose rates vary by province, their highest rate is shown.


Robert McLister is an interest rate analyst, mortgage strategist and editor of MortgageLogic.news. You can follow him on Twitter at @RobMcLister.

 

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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