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TSX forecasts reduced as downside risks lurk – The Globe and Mail

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Canada’s commodity-linked main stock index is expected to rise less than previously expected over coming months and could see a correction as investors grapple with a slowdown in China and higher borrowing costs, a Reuters poll found.

The median prediction of 24 portfolio managers and strategists in the August 9-21 poll was for the S&P/TSX Composite Index to advance 3.5% to 20,479 by year-end, compared with 21,000 expected in a previous poll in May.

It was then expected to climb to 21,800 by end-2024, stopping short of the record closing high it set in March last year of 22,087.22.

“Our baseline economic forecast incorporates a significant slowdown of the global economy and a recession in Canada at the turn of the year,” said Lorenzo Tessier Moreau, a senior economist at Desjardins.

“Key interest rates and most of the yield curve will also remain relatively high for the better part of 2023, which should weigh on stock markets.”

The yield on Canada’s 5-year notes has climbed in recent days to a 16-year high at 4.165% as investors bet major central banks, including the Bank of Canada, will hold interest rates at elevated levels for longer than previously thought.

Toronto’s market has advanced 2.1% since the start of the year, which is well below a gain of 14.6% for the S&P 500.

The U.S. benchmark has benefited from a heavy weighting in high-flying technology shares. In contrast, resource and financial shares dominate the Toronto market, accounting for 31% and 29% respectively.

“Downside risks to China’s growth trajectory could pressure commodity prices and resource sectors in the near term,” said Angelo Kourkafas, an investment strategist at Edward Jones.

“However, the improvement in inflation, a resilient labour market, and expectations for an end to the BoC’s rate-hiking cycle have moved us away from any worst-case scenarios.”

China’s economic recovery has lost steam in recent months due to a worsening property slump, weak consumer spending and tumbling credit growth.

Nine of 12 analysts who answered an additional question said a correction for the TSX is likely or highly likely by the end of 2023.

A correction is often seen as a pullback of 10% from the most recent peak. From its peak in January, the TSX is down over 4%.

“There are far too many headwinds for the equity markets in the near term,” said Matt Skipp, president of SW8 Asset Management.

In addition to high interest rates and a slowdown in China, headwinds for the market include waning fiscal stimulus and the end of pent-up demand for travel and entertainment caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, Skipp said.

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Canada Goose to get into eyewear through deal with Marchon

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TORONTO – Canada Goose Holdings Inc. says it has signed a deal that will result in the creation of its first eyewear collection.

The deal announced on Thursday by the Toronto-based luxury apparel company comes in the form of an exclusive, long-term global licensing agreement with Marchon Eyewear Inc.

The terms and value of the agreement were not disclosed, but Marchon produces eyewear for brands including Lacoste, Nike, Calvin Klein, Ferragamo, Longchamp and Zeiss.

Marchon plans to roll out both sunglasses and optical wear under the Canada Goose name next spring, starting in North America.

Canada Goose says the eyewear will be sold through optical retailers, department stores, Canada Goose shops and its website.

Canada Goose CEO Dani Reiss told The Canadian Press in August that he envisioned his company eventually expanding into eyewear and luggage.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GOOS)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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TD CEO to retire next year, takes responsibility for money laundering failures

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TORONTO – TD Bank Group, which is mired in a money laundering scandal in the U.S., says chief executive Bharat Masrani will retire next year.

Masrani, who will retire officially on April 10, 2025, says the bank’s, “anti-money laundering challenges,” took place on his watch and he takes full responsibility.

The bank named Raymond Chun, TD’s group head, Canadian personal banking, as his successor.

As part of a transition plan, Chun will become chief operating officer on Nov. 1 before taking over the top job when Masrani steps down at the bank’s annual meeting next year.

TD also announced that Riaz Ahmed, group head, wholesale banking and president and CEO of TD Securities, will retire at the end of January 2025.

TD has taken billions in charges related to ongoing U.S. investigations into the failure of its anti-money laundering program.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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