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Carl Icahn’s biggest short? Commercial real estate – The Real Deal

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Carl Icahn (Credit: Icahn by Neilson Barnard/Getty Images for New York Times; iStock)

The U.S. commercial real estate market is ripe for a meltdown, according to activist investor and notorious corporate raider Carl Icahn. And he’s putting a lot of money where his mouth is.

“You’re going to have this blow up, too, and nobody’s even looking at it,” Icahn said on CNBC. The investor revealed that he’s shorting the commercial mortgage bond market, noting that it was his “biggest position by far.”

Icahn, who Forbes estimates is worth $15 billion, is focusing his bet on credit default swaps on assets that back mortgages of corporate offices and malls. He made note of the housing market bubble of 2008 and the subsequent collapse of that market, and said he was seeing similar signs now.

“You have a bunch of mortgages … so the banks went out and loaned money against a lot of shopping malls, office buildings, hotels and retail,” Icahn said. “It’s all credible institutions doing it again.”

In its simplest form, a short is a bet that a company’s stock price will be worth less in the future. The short investor borrows stock when it’s high and then sells it when the stock drops – the difference between the two prices is all profit. The practice was immortalized in pop culture after Michael Lewis’ book “The Big Short,” which later became a film. (Steve Eisman, a trader who was the inspiration for one of the main characters in the film, declared in July that his next major short target is Zillow.)

Icahn predicted that mall and other commercial real estate operators would soon default on those loans. And then, freefall.

“It’s like selling insurance to someone who’s going to go to the electric chair in a couple of months,” he said. [CNBC] — TRD Staff

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Mortgage rule changes will help spark demand, but supply is ‘core’ issue: economist

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TORONTO – One expert predicts Ottawa‘s changes to mortgage rules will help spur demand among potential homebuyers but says policies aimed at driving new supply are needed to address the “core issues” facing the market.

The federal government’s changes, set to come into force mid-December, include a higher price cap for insured mortgages to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

CIBC Capital Markets deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal calls it a “significant” move likely to accelerate the recovery of the housing market, a process already underway as interest rates have begun to fall.

However, he says in a note that policymakers should aim to “prevent that from becoming too much of a good thing” through policies geared toward the supply side.

Tal says the main issue is the lack of supply available to respond to Canada’s rapidly increasing population, particularly in major cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17,2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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National housing market in ‘holding pattern’ as buyers patient for lower rates: CREA

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OTTAWA – The Canadian Real Estate Association says the number of homes sold in August fell compared with a year ago as the market remained largely stuck in a holding pattern despite borrowing costs beginning to come down.

The association says the number of homes sold in August fell 2.1 per cent compared with the same month last year.

On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, national home sales edged up 1.3 per cent from July.

CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart says that with forecasts of lower interest rates throughout the rest of this year and into 2025, “it makes sense that prospective buyers might continue to hold off for improved affordability, especially since prices are still well behaved in most of the country.”

The national average sale price for August amounted to $649,100, a 0.1 per cent increase compared with a year earlier.

The number of newly listed properties was up 1.1 per cent month-over-month.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Two Quebec real estate brokers suspended for using fake bids to drive up prices

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MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.

Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.

She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.

The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.

One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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