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Canada's coronavirus-battered economy careens toward recession – The Globe and Mail

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A woman wearing a face mask shops at a Walmart Supercentre amid coronavirus fears spreading in Toronto, on March 13, 2020.

CARLOS OSORIO/Reuters

Canada’s economy is careening toward recession as the COVID-19 outbreak weighs on business activity and consumer spending, raising the threat of layoffs and bankruptcies in the coming months.

The unfolding downturn is shaping up to be swift and sharp, as Canada and other countries take increasingly drastic steps to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19.

Exports are bound to weaken – not only because of a big drop in oil prices, but softening demand from key trading partners. Household spending is tightening as consumers restrict their purchases to the essentials. And debt-laden businesses are finding themselves under financial pressure as their revenues take a hit.

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As leaders and health professionals encourage Canadians to avoid travel, gatherings and other aspects of daily life, many companies suddenly can no longer count on routine business to keep cash flows intact.

On Friday, Royal Bank of Canada and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce said the country will slip into a recession as economic growth turns negative in the next two quarters.

“You kind of hope you’re wrong [with that forecast], but I fear we are right,” said RBC chief economist Craig Wright.

CIBC said both Canada and the United States will likely join “a growing list” of nations that experience an economic contraction. “Stretching out the period in which the disease spreads, while essential in preventing an overrun medical system, lengthens the period in which the economy feels a bite,” CIBC economists said in a report.

Financial leaders are taking action to blunt the hit to the economy and ensure the financial system continues to function smoothly.

The Bank of Canada made an emergency rate cut on Friday to protect the economy against “negative shocks” from the outbreak and lower oil prices. The bank’s overnight lending rate has now been lowered by a full percentage point in just more than a week, and many analysts expect another round of cutting that would take the rate to 0.25 per cent, matching a record low.

“It is clear that the spread of the coronavirus is having serious consequences for Canadian families, and for Canada’s economy,” the bank said in a statement. “In addition, lower prices for oil, even since our last scheduled rate decision on March 4, will weigh heavily on the economy, particularly in energy intensive regions.”

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Meanwhile, Finance Minister Bill Morneau said Friday that a “significant stimulus package” would arrive next week. Canada’s banking regulator also cut the industry’s “stability buffer” by 125 basis points, a move that frees up roughly $300-billion for banks to lend out.

And as part of the government’s plan to prevent smaller businesses from running out of cash, Export Development Canada and Business Development Bank of Canada will boost their loans by $10-billion, echoing a strategy used during the 2008 financial crisis. But Ottawa has yet to provide details, including whether it will provide cash to the two Crown corporations or whether they will issue the loans from their existing funds.

Still, such stimulus measures are unlikely to keep Canada from falling into a recession, RBC said earlier Friday, noting the eventual recovery could be tepid because of “the blow to household confidence.”

“We hope because the labour market’s been so tight that firms hold onto their workers, knowing how difficult it was to get the best and brightest when the economy was strong,” said Mr. Wright. “But there’s still going to be some layoffs and hours worked will probably be cut, and that all translates into hits on the income front.”

As such, spooked consumers are poised to deliver a shock to Corporate Canada.

Already, the airline and tourism industries are reeling as travellers cancel hotel and flight bookings, major events get postponed and people stay at home. The Canadian government on Friday asked residents to avoid all non-essential travel outside the country.

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Earlier this week, Calgary’s WestJet Airlines said it is cutting its seat capacity by 12 per cent, along with freezing spending and hiring, while Montreal’s Transat AT is seeking government help to avoid layoffs as its sales plunge. Global airline revenue could plummet more than US$100-billion because of the virus outbreak, an industry group said.

The Canadian auto industry had already seen a weak sales trend and was hoping for a rebound this year.

“Now the coronavirus has thrown that all into mayhem,” said Dennis DesRosiers, president of DesRosiers Automotive Consultants.

Dealers worry that coming months could be rough as consumers pare back on big-ticket items.

“Everyone is on edge in terms of what may happen as we move forward,” said Denis Ducharme, president of the Motor Dealers’ Association of Alberta. “If it’s normal human nature, I would anticipate that we’ll probably see a very slow period until lots of things get rectified.”

The Canadian energy industry is bracing for yet another slump. Oil stocks were punished this week, after Saudi Arabia slashed its crude prices when the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries failed to agree on production cuts.

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Cenovus Energy Inc. and other producers have cut their capital spending plans, while the budgets of oil-reliant provinces – such as Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland – will take a major revenue hit from an extended period of low prices.

The restaurant industry could also be hurt as customers hunker down at home.

Steam Whistle Brewing in downtown Toronto cancelled its annual St. Patrick’s Day party, which drew 1,400 people last year. “We realized we just couldn’t be responsible for anything that potentially put our customers at risk,” said chief executive officer Andy Burgess. “I’ve made a lot of decisions this week that didn’t maximize our cash flow.”

In the event of a recession, Canada’s large banks could face soaring loan losses, as borrowers have trouble servicing and refinancing debt and overleveraged companies face insolvency. A major hit to bank earnings could send ripples through the broader economy if banks curtail lending to troubled sectors such as energy and hospitality.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Ebrahim Poonawala is predicting a 40-per-cent drop in earnings per share for Canada’s five largest banks in a “stress/recession scenario,” because of loan losses and margin compression from lower interest rates.

The impact on Canadian banks could be more significant than in 2008-09 financial crisis, Mr. Poonawala wrote in a note to clients on Friday.

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“The consumer (and as a result the housing market) is highly vulnerable to a turn in the job market given elevated debt levels; this could lead to a worse credit loss experience during the next downturn,” he said.

The national household debt burden – more formally known as the ratio of credit market debt to disposable income – stands at 176.3 per cent, Statistics Canada said Friday. In other words, Canadian households owe $1.76 for every dollar of after-tax income.

While the debt burden has levelled off in recent years, it remains near a record high, and it could come under pressure this year given looser interest rates and the prospect of lower income due to job losses or fewer work hours.

“Further acceleration in credit growth amid slowing income gains poses a risk and may renew the buildup of the already-high financial vulnerabilities,” said Toronto-Dominion Bank economist Ksenia Bushmeneva in a client note.

CIBC said Friday that Canada’s jobless rate could rise to 7 per cent from its current 5.6 per cent. Job losses could have disastrous consequences for part-time or gig workers who aren’t covered by Employment Insurance benefits.

“We hope to see some support from the federal government next week to ease the pain on businesses so they’re not pressed to fire people quickly or cut hours dramatically,” said Mr. Wright. “And for those [workers] that are impacted, [offer] some support for income lost.”

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With a file from Patrick Brethour

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Politics likely pushed Air Canada toward deal with ‘unheard of’ gains for pilots

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MONTREAL – Politics, public opinion and salary hikes south of the border helped push Air Canada toward a deal that secures major pay gains for pilots, experts say.

Hammered out over the weekend, the would-be agreement includes a cumulative wage hike of nearly 42 per cent over four years — an enormous bump by historical standards — according to one source who was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter. The previous 10-year contract granted increases of just two per cent annually.

The federal government’s stated unwillingness to step in paved the way for a deal, noted John Gradek, after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made it plain the two sides should hash one out themselves.

“Public opinion basically pressed the federal cabinet, including the prime minister, to keep their hands clear of negotiations and looking at imposing a settlement,” said Gradek, who teaches aviation management at McGill University.

After late-night talks at a hotel near Toronto’s Pearson airport, the country’s biggest airline and the union representing 5,200-plus aviators announced early Sunday morning they had reached a tentative agreement, averting a strike that would have grounded flights and affected some 110,000 passengers daily.

The relative precariousness of the Liberal minority government as well as a push to appear more pro-labour underlay the prime minister’s hands-off approach to the negotiations.

Trudeau said Friday the government would not step in to fix the impasse — unlike during a massive railway work stoppage last month and a strike by WestJet mechanics over the Canada Day long weekend that workers claimed road roughshod over their constitutional right to collective bargaining. Trudeau said the government respects the right to strike and would only intervene if it became apparent no negotiated deal was possible.

“They felt that they really didn’t want to try for a third attempt at intervention and basically said, ‘Let’s let the airline decide how they want to deal with this one,'” said Gradek.

“Air Canada ran out of support as the week wore on, and by the time they got to Friday night, Saturday morning, there was nothing left for them to do but to basically try to get a deal set up and accepted by ALPA (Air Line Pilots Association).”

Trudeau’s government was also unlikely to consider back-to-work legislation after the NDP tore up its agreement to support the Liberal minority in Parliament, Gradek said. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, whose party has traditionally toed a more pro-business line, also said last week that Tories “stand with the pilots” and swore off “pre-empting” the negotiations.

Air Canada CEO Michael Rousseau had asked Ottawa on Thursday to impose binding arbitration pre-emptively — “before any travel disruption starts” — if talks failed. Backed by business leaders, he’d hoped for an effective repeat of the Conservatives’ move to head off a strike in 2012 by legislating Air Canada pilots and ground crew to stick to their posts before any work stoppage could start.

The request may have fallen flat, however. Gradek said he believes there was less anxiety over the fallout from an airline strike than from the countrywide railway shutdown.

He also speculated that public frustration over thousands of cancelled flights would have flowed toward Air Canada rather than Ottawa, prompting the carrier to concede to a deal yielding “unheard of” gains for employees.

“It really was a total collapse of the Air Canada bargaining position,” he said.

Pilots are slated to vote in the coming weeks on the four-year contract.

Last year, pilots at Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and American Airlines secured agreements that included four-year pay boosts ranging from 34 per cent to 40 per cent, ramping up pressure on other carriers to raise wages.

After more than a year of bargaining, Air Canada put forward an offer in August centred around a 30 per cent wage hike over four years.

But the final deal, should union members approve it, grants a 26 per cent increase in the first year alone, retroactive to September 2023, according to the source. Three wage bumps of four per cent would follow in 2024 through 2026.

Passengers may wind up shouldering some of that financial load, one expert noted.

“At the end of the day, it’s all us consumers who are paying,” said Barry Prentice, who heads the University of Manitoba’s transport institute.

Higher fares may be mitigated by the persistence of budget carrier Flair Airlines and the rapid expansion of Porter Airlines — a growing Air Canada rival — as well as waning demand for leisure trips. Corporate travel also remains below pre-COVID-19 levels.

Air Canada said Sunday the tentative contract “recognizes the contributions and professionalism of Air Canada’s pilot group, while providing a framework for the future growth of the airline.”

The union issued a statement saying that, if ratified, the agreement will generate about $1.9 billion of additional value for Air Canada pilots over the course of the deal.

Meanwhile, labour tension with cabin crew looms on the horizon. Air Canada is poised to kick off negotiations with the union representing more than 10,000 flight attendants this year before the contract expires on March 31.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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Federal $500M bailout for Muskrat Falls power delays to keep N.S. rate hikes in check

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HALIFAX – Ottawa is negotiating a $500-million bailout for Nova Scotia’s privately owned electric utility, saying the money will be used to prevent a big spike in electricity rates.

Federal Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson made the announcement today in Halifax, saying Nova Scotia Power Inc. needs the money to cover higher costs resulting from the delayed delivery of electricity from the Muskrat Falls hydroelectric plant in Labrador.

Wilkinson says that without the money, the subsidiary of Emera Inc. would have had to increase rates by 19 per cent over “the short term.”

Nova Scotia Power CEO Peter Gregg says the deal, once approved by the province’s energy regulator, will keep rate increases limited “to be around the rate of inflation,” as costs are spread over a number of years.

The utility helped pay for construction of an underwater transmission link between Newfoundland and Nova Scotia, but the Muskrat Falls project has not been consistent in delivering electricity over the past five years.

Those delays forced Nova Scotia Power to spend more on generating its own electricity.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

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