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Don Martin: Who will step up to have 'The Talk' with Trudeau? – CTV News

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OTTAWA –

It’s time someone sat Justin Trudeau down for The Talk.

It happens to the best of them, that moment in a prime minister’s reign when a top staffer, political ally or even a trusted family member finally tells them what they need to hear instead of what they want to hear.

The Talk is invariably about telling them it’s time to go.

Trudeau needs to be told what he clearly doesn’t understand, that his sunny days have sunset, that his dismal poll numbers will not suddenly rebound and that there’s a low probability he will win re-election despite facing a hard-to-like opponent in Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

But ego and vanity are a potent combination in leadership politics. They conspire to incite the afflicted to stretch one term too far; to risk it all for a final shot of election glory and watch their political careers crater in a concession speech and same-night resignation. Exhibit A: Stephen Harper.

The signs are everywhere this condition is infecting Trudeau’s mindset as he now seems deadly serious about seeking re-election in 2025.

The prime minister seemed to believe a popularity rebound would be as simple as a cabinet shuffle, a few photogenic visits to disaster areas with a hand over his heart or wildly fearmongering his opponent.

But the cabinet shuffle was a bust as a revitalization project. It left weak ministers like Bill Blair and Harjit Sajjan in over-their-head portfolios, a newcomer lineup filled with virtue signalling over merit, and fed-up backbenchers primed to stir up trouble if the party’s downward spiral continues.

And the jawdropper of the summer was watching Trudeau fumble the reigning issue of the year, the critical shortage of affordable housing. He let his spin doctors whisper to the media that it would be his cabinet retreat’s top-priority consideration, allowed his new housing minister to float a trial balloon about limiting international student numbers to ease the squeeze and then announced . . . NOTHING.

In lieu of action, Trudeau tossed out the usual word salad.

We’re the “best country in the world and let us make it even better…we are rolling up our sleeves and getting work done…we are looking forward to continuing to do the work we’ve been doing on housing.”

Such bland babble almost makes you almost yearn for the eloquent-by-comparison “helping the middle class and people working hard to join it” mantra.

But empty words now match inaction by a prime minister who churns out a daily itinerary heavy on ‘private meetings’ (four this week), readouts of phone chats with second-tier foreign leaders (Wednesday it was with the prime minister of North Macedonia, “the second most mountainous country in the world”) and posing in elaborately unnecessary photo-ops.

Meanwhile we’re the laughing stock of the G7 on military readiness, we’ve got social media giants blacking out emergency domestic news and a government continuing to boost immigration while washing its hands of the fallout on cities, housing and social services.

The resulting leadership-driven meltdown is happening faster than even the most giddy Conservative could’ve predicted.

New data from CTV pollster Nik Nanos pegs the Liberals a distant third in the 18-to-29 age bracket which initially swooned over his leadership. Liberal numbers barely show a pulse at 16 per cent support compared to the Conservatives at 39. And then there’s the crumbling Liberal bedrock in Atlantic Canada.

Yet the prime minister appears blissfully unaware or, even worse, willfully unconcerned about the ugly fate looming larger on the horizon as his personal unpopularity drags a strong-brand party toward electoral defeat.

Perhaps his head is filled with the pixie-dust prospect of climbing higher into the top 10 list of longest-serving Canadian prime ministers, what with the exceeding the Brian Mulroney and Stephen Harper reigns within reach.

Or it could be he relishes the prospect of taking Poilievre to the electoral woodshed to prevent his rival from undoing signature accomplishments like the carbon tax.

But without a vital vision to sell, Trudeau needs to be honestly told that a fourth-straight victory is unlikely and that ending a nine-year run with a decent number of big deal accomplishments is good enough.

Given the year it takes to plan a leadership convention and another six months for the next leader to gel with voters, now is the right time to signal change at the top for a 2025 election.

That’s why someone needs to quickly point out there’s an easy choice for Trudeau between probable electoral rejection and voluntarily jumping into his father’s 1960 Mercedes 300SL convertible and driving off to retirement on corporate boards, the speaker circuit and dating websites.

Trudeau needs The Talk to save himself from ending up a loser. Because if The Talk fails, voters appear increasingly determined to send him walking.

That’s the bottom line.

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Review finds no case for formal probe of Beijing’s activities under elections law

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OTTAWA – The federal agency that investigates election infractions found insufficient evidence to support suggestions Beijing wielded undue influence against the Conservatives in the Vancouver area during the 2021 general election.

The Commissioner of Canada Elections’ recently completed review of the lingering issue was tabled Tuesday at a federal inquiry into foreign interference.

The review focused on the unsuccessful campaign of Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu in the riding of Steveston-Richmond East and the party’s larger efforts in the Vancouver area.

It says the evidence uncovered did not trigger the threshold to initiate a formal investigation under the Canada Elections Act.

Investigators therefore recommended that the review be concluded.

A summary of the review results was shared with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and the RCMP. The review says both agencies indicated the election commissioner’s findings were consistent with their own understanding of the situation.

During the exercise, the commissioner’s investigators met with Chinese Canadian residents of Chiu’s riding and surrounding ones.

They were told of an extensive network of Chinese Canadian associations, businesses and media organizations that offers the diaspora a lifestyle that mirrors that of China in many ways.

“Further, this diaspora has continuing and extensive commercial, social and familial relations with China,” the review says.

Some interviewees reported that this “has created aspects of a parallel society involving many Chinese Canadians in the Lower Mainland area, which includes concerted support, direction and control by individuals from or involved with China’s Vancouver consulate and the United Front Work Department (UFWD) in China.”

Investigators were also made aware of members of three Chinese Canadian associations, as well as others, who were alleged to have used their positions to influence the choice of Chinese Canadian voters during the 2021 election in a direction favourable to the interests of Beijing, the review says.

These efforts were sparked by elements of the Conservative party’s election platform and by actions and statements by Chiu “that were leveraged to bolster claims that both the platform and Chiu were anti-China and were encouraging anti-Chinese discrimination and racism.”

These messages were amplified through repetition in social media, chat groups and posts, as well as in Chinese in online, print and radio media throughout the Vancouver area.

Upon examination, the messages “were found to not be in contravention” of the Canada Elections Act, says the review, citing the Supreme Court of Canada’s position that the concept of uninhibited speech permeates all truly democratic societies and institutions.

The review says the effectiveness of the anti-Conservative, anti-Chiu campaigns was enhanced by circumstances “unique to the Chinese diaspora and the assertive nature of Chinese government interests.”

It notes the election was prefaced by statements from China’s ambassador to Canada and the Vancouver consul general as well as articles published or broadcast in Beijing-controlled Chinese Canadian media entities.

“According to Chinese Canadian interview subjects, this invoked a widespread fear amongst electors, described as a fear of retributive measures from Chinese authorities should a (Conservative) government be elected.”

This included the possibility that Chinese authorities could interfere with travel to and from China, as well as measures being taken against family members or business interests in China, the review says.

“Several Chinese Canadian interview subjects were of the view that Chinese authorities could exercise such retributive measures, and that this fear was most acute with Chinese Canadian electors from mainland China. One said ‘everybody understands’ the need to only say nice things about China.”

However, no interview subject was willing to name electors who were directly affected by the anti-Tory campaign, nor community leaders who claimed to speak on a voter’s behalf.

Several weeks of public inquiry hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign meddling.

In other testimony Tuesday, Conservative MP Garnett Genuis told the inquiry that parliamentarians who were targeted by Chinese hackers could have taken immediate protective steps if they had been informed sooner.

It emerged earlier this year that in 2021 some MPs and senators faced cyberattacks from the hackers because of their involvement with the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which pushes for accountability from Beijing.

In 2022, U.S. authorities apparently informed the Canadian government of the attacks, and it in turn advised parliamentary IT officials — but not individual MPs.

Genuis, a Canadian co-chair of the inter-parliamentary alliance, told the inquiry Tuesday that it remains mysterious to him why he wasn’t informed about the attacks sooner.

Liberal MP John McKay, also a Canadian co-chair of the alliance, said there should be a clear protocol for advising parliamentarians of cyberthreats.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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NDP beat Conservatives in federal byelection in Winnipeg

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WINNIPEG – The federal New Democrats have kept a longtime stronghold in the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg.

The NDP’s Leila Dance won a close battle over Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, and says the community has spoken in favour of priorities such as health care and the cost of living.

Elmwood-Transcona has elected a New Democrat in every election except one since the riding was formed in 1988.

The seat became open after three-term member of Parliament Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with the Manitoba government.

A political analyst the NDP is likely relieved to have kept the seat in what has been one of their strongest urban areas.

Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh worked hard to keep the seat in a tight race.

“He made a number of visits to Winnipeg, so if they had lost this riding it would have been disastrous for the NDP,” Adams said.

The strong Conservative showing should put wind in that party’s sails, Adams added, as their percentage of the popular vote in Elmwood-Transcona jumped sharply from the 2021 election.

“Even though the Conservatives lost this (byelection), they should walk away from it feeling pretty good.”

Dance told reporters Monday night she wants to focus on issues such as the cost of living while working in Ottawa.

“We used to be able to buy a cart of groceries for a hundred dollars and now it’s two small bags. That is something that will affect everyone in this riding,” Dance said.

Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third,

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trudeau says ‘all sorts of reflections’ for Liberals after loss of second stronghold

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OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.

His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.

Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.

Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.

It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.

The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.

“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.

When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”

In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.

Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.

“The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.

The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.

Singh called it a “big victory.”

“Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.

“Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”

New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.

Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.

The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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