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Stay home. Do nothing. Save lives.
That might well end up being the story of how Canada conquered the terrible pandemic of 2020.
While Italy and other countries waited to act until cases were flooding hospitals, Canada has a chance to get out ahead of the COVID-19 crisis, according to the researchers who have been watching the coronavirus wreak deadly havoc around the world.
“We can’t afford to wait until we see how bad it is,” said Dr. David Fisman, a University of Toronto epidemiologist. “That just means that you’ve missed the boat.”
But social distancing is one of the most challenging things many Canadians have ever been asked to do.
Up close, it’s messy. As schools close and events are cancelled, it looks like a society in retreat.
But in fact, it’s a society taking control of a situation — a country pulling together in a collective effort to head off disaster.
One Toronto critical care physician published an open letter Thursday warning that this is Canada’s one brief chance to change the course of this epidemic.
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“I simply want you to know that the COVID-19 situation is dire and may soon be completely out of control,” wrote Dr. Michael Warner, the head of the ICU at the Michael Garron Hospital in Toronto.
He wrote a cri de coeur and sent it to 200 colleagues and his Twitter followers with the hope that it might reach people in time to make a difference.
“We have some time before the surge in patients hits Canada,” he said. “At least one week or longer.”
Warner said he wrote it while he still had the time.
“Two weeks from now I’m going to be too busy to do anything but work.”
His message is blunt:
Avoid all close contact with people unless necessary.
Never shake hands.
Cancel/avoid all travel.
“The only hope to slow the virus is based on community behaviour — that’s you, your neighbour, your family…everyone,” he wrote.
“The current risk to the individual remains low, but the risk to society is immeasurable. I implore you to follow these recommendations to slow the spread of the virus.
“Begin social distancing NOW — do not wait for a politician to tell you it is necessary.”
‘We have to shut this down’
Fisman, of U of T’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health, said he almost shed tears of relief when he heard that Ontario announced Thursday it was closing its schools for three weeks.
He got the news while visiting some colleagues in an ICU, dreading the impending crisis and the risks that his friends could soon be facing.
“I feel a great sense of relief that we’re starting to get it,” he said, adding that Canada might just be learning from the mistakes made by other countries. “If you wait until things are bad, you’ve waited too long.”
“We have to really shut this down in order not to have our health care system collapse in the way we’re seeing in other countries. The time to do this is now.”
Fisman has been following the outbreak since early January, when the world first heard about a new coronavirus circulating in China. He calculates that the time to act is before critically ill patients start flooding hospitals.
He calculates the disease progression this way: It takes about five days (on average) from infection to first symptoms, and about seven more days for the infected person to get sick enough to see a doctor.
Add another three days at least before patients become critically ill and end up in the ICU.
Paramedics carry a hazardous medical waste box as patients lie on camping beds in one of the emergency structures that were set up to ease procedures at the Brescia hospital, northern Italy, on Thursday. (Luca Bruno/The Associated Press)
Italy learned the hard way, waiting for those first ICU cases before testing for the coronavirus and then shutting down the country. Now horrific stories about overwhelmed hospitals are shocking Canadians into action.
Warner said the stories coming out of Italy prompted his letter.
“Patients are dying. Resources are being rationed. Non-COVID patients with treatable disease are not getting treated,” he said. “I’m not scared of disease and getting sick. I’m scared of not being able to help people.”
‘Hell demon of a virus’
Other lessons Canada still has time to learn: the coronavirus loves a crowd. Church groups, cruises, large medical conferences — all have seeded outbreaks.
“That’s how this hell demon of a virus operates,” said Fisman. “I think we have time because we’re not in the soup yet.”
Canada’s cases are growing, but so far hospitals are not yet reporting large numbers of critically ill patients.
That’s why the country is in the midst of a surreal and unprecedented experience of watching major sporting events cancelled, jury trials postponed, theatres postponing performances and social events disappearing from the calendar one by one.
“None of us has lived through a time like this,” said Fisman, who said the closest comparison is probably the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. And studies of that experience can also guide behaviour now.
Members of the Red Cross Motor Corps, all wearing masks against the further spread of the influenza epidemic, carry a patient on a stretcher into their ambulance, Saint Louis, Missouri, October 1918. (PhotoQuest/Getty Images)
One 2007 study comparing Spanish flu in two U.S. cities is suddenly getting wide circulation.
Philadelphia allowed a large parade to happen even though the city already had cases of the Spanish flu. St Louis imposed social distancing within three days of the first cases, dramatically reducing the city’s death rate.
Is it all an over-reaction? That’s something that will only be decided in hindsight.
“I think only retrospectively will we know if it was the right time, but I think we have to use science to guide us,” said Warner. “We have enough science from China and Italy to inform us of what appropriate decisions to make.”
If the social distancing experiment works, and Canada slows the viral spread, the experts say the skeptics might have the last laugh after all.
Fisman hopes the people who call this an over-reaction will be able to gloat in six months.
Because that will mean Canada successfully dodged the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020.
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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) — Florida State has asked a judge to decide key parts of its lawsuit against the Atlantic Coast Conference without a trial, hoping for a quicker resolution and path to a possible exit from the league.
Florida State requested a partial summary judgment from Circuit Judge John Cooper in a 574-page document filed earlier this week in Leon County, the Tallahassee-based school’s home court.
Florida State sued the ACC in December, challenging the validity of a contract that binds member schools to the conference and each other through media rights and claiming the league’s exit fees and penalties for withdrawal are exorbitant and unfair.
In its original compliant, Florida State said it would cost the school more than half a billion dollars to break the grant of rights and leave the ACC.
“The recently-produced 2016 ESPN agreements expose that the ACC has no rights to FSU home games played after it leaves the conference,” Florida State said in the filing.
Florida State is asking a judge to rule on the exit fees and for a summary judgment on its breach of contract claim, which says the conference broke its bylaws when it sued the school without first getting a majority vote from the entire league membership.
The case is one of four active right now involving the ACC and one of its members.
The ACC has sued Florida State in North Carolina, claiming the school is breaching a contract that it has signed twice in the last decade simply by challenging it.
The judge in Florida has already denied the ACC’s motion to dismiss or pause that case because the conference filed first in North Carolina. The conference appealed the Florida decision in a hearing earlier this week.
Clemson is also suing the ACC in South Carolina, trying to find an affordable potential exit, and the conference has countersued that school in North Carolina, too.
The dispute is tied to the ACC’s long-term deal with ESPN, which runs through 2036, and leaves those schools lagging well behind competitors in the Southeastern Conference and Big Ten when it comes to conference-payout revenue.
Florida State has said the athletic department is in danger of falling behind by as much as $40 million annually by being in the ACC.
“Postponing the resolution of this question only compounds the expense and travesty,” the school said in the latest filing.
The ACC has implemented a bonus system called a success initiative that will reward schools for accomplishments on the field and court, but Florida State and Clemson are looking for more as two of the conference’s highest-profile brands and most successful football programs.
The ACC evenly distributes revenue from its broadcast deal, though new members California, Stanford and SMU receive a reduced and no distribution. That money is used to fund the pool for the success initiative.
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QUEBEC – Australian road cyclist Michael Matthews raced to victory at the Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec on Friday.
Matthews earned a record third career victory in Quebec City. He was previously tied with Slovakia’s Peter Sagan with two wins.
The Jayco-AlUla rider won the fastest edition of the Quebec race on the UCI World Tour calendar.
Matthews, who claimed titles in 2018 and 2019, edged out Eritrea’s Biniam Girmay and France’s Rudy Molard in a thrilling sprint.
Tour de France winner Tadej Pogacar, the heavy favourite, was unable to follow through with his attack launched just over two kilometres from the finish line. He finished in seventh place.
Pogacar will look to redeem himself at the Montreal cycling Grand Prix on Sunday.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
VANCOUVER – The Vancouver Whitecaps have loaned midfielder Jay Herdman to Cavalry FC of the Canadian Premier League and rewarded two Whitecaps FC 2 players with MLS contracts.
Midfielder Jeevan Badwal signed as a homegrown player through 2027, with options for 2028 and 2029, while forward Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau signed an MLS contract through 2025, with club options for 2026 and 2027.
Both have been playing for the Whitecaps’ MLS Next Pro team along with the 20-year-old Herdman, the son of Toronto FC coach John Herdman.
The moves were made before Friday’s MLS and CPL roster freeze.
Born in New Zealand while his father was working for the New Zealand Football Federation, Jay Herdman was also part of the New Zealand soccer team at the Paris Olympics with three appearances including two starts. Herdman’s loan deal runs through the end of the CPL season.
“Jay is an important signing for us, who will provide another attacking option for the run-in,” Cavalry coach and GM Tommy Wheeldon Jr. said in a statement. “He’s a player that we’ve been tracking since we played against Whitecaps in pre-season and he has very good quality, with terrific energy and the ability to contribute to goals.
“With the recent injury to Mael Henry, Jay’s positional profile and age helps us with on-field options and minutes that count towards the league’s required 2,000 U-21 domestic minutes during the regular season.”
Badwal, an 18-year-old from suburban Surrey, is the 26th academy player to sign an MLS contract with the Whitecaps.
“Having joined our academy in 2019, Jeevan continues to progress through our club and takes every challenge in stride,” Whitecaps FC sporting director Axel Schuster said in a statement. “He is comfortable on the ball, positionally sound, and does the simple things very well. We are excited for Jeevan to make the next step in his young career.”
Badwal has made 19 appearances with Whitecaps 2 this season, scoring two goals and adding three assists. A Canadian youth international, he started all three matches for Canada at the 2023 FIFA U-17 World Cup
Badwal made his first-team debut off the bench in the first leg of the Canadian Championship semifinal against Pacific FC.
Chateau was originally selected 74th overall by the Whitecaps in the 2024 MLS SuperDraft after spending two years at St. John’s University.
The 22-year-old from Ottawa signed an MLS NEXT Pro contract with Whitecaps FC 2 in March. He leads Whitecaps FC 2 in goal-scoring this season with eight goals across 21 appearances (including eight starts).
“Nicolas leads MLS NEXT Pro in shots on target, has a very strong work rate and willpower. We are looking forward to seeing his growth as he builds on his young professional career,” said Schuster.
Chateau made his first-team debut as a second-half substitute at CF Montreal on July 6.
Herdman, who joined the Whitecaps academy as a 13-year-old, has made 19 appearances for Whitecaps FC 2 in 2024, scoring six goals and adding three assists. He made his MLS debut in April as a second-half substitute in a 2-0 victory at the Seattle Sounders.
Internationally, Herdman has represented New Zealand 29 times across the U-19, U-20, and U-23 sides. He was part of New Zealand’s squad at the 2023 FIFA U-20 World Cup, starting three matches at the tournament and scoring against Uzbekistan.
The Whitecaps host San Jose on Saturday while Cavalry entertains Atletico Ottawa on Sunday.
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This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024
