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Home prices are set to plunge across much of Ontario this fall

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Experts predict home prices will decline across much of the country, including Ontario, this fall, as Canada faces sky-high interest rates coupled with a demand for homes far outpacing supply.

RE/MAX Canada has released its 2023 Fall Housing Market Outlook Report, which forecasts that several Ontario real estate markets will experience declines in home prices this fall, part of a broader nationwide softening of the housing landscape.

“If the fall market is an early indicator for 2024 activity, we may see a very active first quarter as buyers and sellers take advantage of easing prices into the earlier part of next year,” says Christopher Alexander, President of RE/MAX Canada.

The report notes Ontario as “a diverse mix of average residential sale price estimates heading into the fall,” that includes seven major markets predicted to witness declines in home prices.

Home prices are expected to decrease this fall in Hamilton (-2 per cent), Ottawa (-2 per cent), Windsor (-2 per cent), North Bay (-2.5 per cent), Kitchener-Waterloo (-4 per cent), Durham Region (-5 per cent), and Peterborough (-5 per cent).

As other regions of Ontario suffered amid rising borrowing costs, markets like Hamilton actually benefited from interest rate hikes.

“While we wait for governments to implement a tangible national housing strategy to boost Canada’s supply of both affordable and diverse housing, the market is starting to ease in some regions,” said Alexander, noting that “This is bringing some much-needed relief from the sky-high prices we’ve experienced over the past couple of years.”

On the other end of the spectrum, home prices are expected to spike in hot Ontario markets like Burlington (1 per cent), Lakelands West (2 per cent), York Region (2.2 per cent), the Greater Toronto Area (2.5 per cent), and Sudbury (5 per cent).

Over half of Ontario regions — at 53 per cent — are expected to be sellers’ markets this fall with demand outpacing supply, while 40 per cent are anticipated to be balanced, and the remaining seven per cent forecast to be buyer’s markets where supply exceeds demand.

Experts say regions like the GTA will continue to face short- and long-term challenges, citing interest rates as “likely to be the most pressing factor influencing the market.”

 

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Mortgage rule changes will help spark demand, but supply is ‘core’ issue: economist

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TORONTO – One expert predicts Ottawa‘s changes to mortgage rules will help spur demand among potential homebuyers but says policies aimed at driving new supply are needed to address the “core issues” facing the market.

The federal government’s changes, set to come into force mid-December, include a higher price cap for insured mortgages to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

CIBC Capital Markets deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal calls it a “significant” move likely to accelerate the recovery of the housing market, a process already underway as interest rates have begun to fall.

However, he says in a note that policymakers should aim to “prevent that from becoming too much of a good thing” through policies geared toward the supply side.

Tal says the main issue is the lack of supply available to respond to Canada’s rapidly increasing population, particularly in major cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17,2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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National housing market in ‘holding pattern’ as buyers patient for lower rates: CREA

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OTTAWA – The Canadian Real Estate Association says the number of homes sold in August fell compared with a year ago as the market remained largely stuck in a holding pattern despite borrowing costs beginning to come down.

The association says the number of homes sold in August fell 2.1 per cent compared with the same month last year.

On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, national home sales edged up 1.3 per cent from July.

CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart says that with forecasts of lower interest rates throughout the rest of this year and into 2025, “it makes sense that prospective buyers might continue to hold off for improved affordability, especially since prices are still well behaved in most of the country.”

The national average sale price for August amounted to $649,100, a 0.1 per cent increase compared with a year earlier.

The number of newly listed properties was up 1.1 per cent month-over-month.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Two Quebec real estate brokers suspended for using fake bids to drive up prices

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MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.

Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.

She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.

The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.

One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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