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Bitcoin price holds steady above $26k after CPI report, but death cross looms

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(Kitco News) – Cryptocurrencies traded in a holding pattern on Wednesday after the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed an uptick in inflation in August, with headline prices rising 0.6% month-over-month and 3.7% on an annual basis, largely driven by a spike in energy prices.

Stocks were mixed as investors focused their attention on next week’s Fed meeting, where the central bank will determine if additional interest rate hikes are needed. The CME FedWatch Tool now gives a 97% probability that the Fed will pause its rate hikes next week, up from 92% a day ago.

At the closing bell, the S&P and Nasdaq finished in the green, up 0.12% and 0.29%, respectively, while the Dow recorded a loss of 0.20%.

Data provided by TradingView shows that Bitcoin’s (BTC) price initially climbed higher after the CPI report, hitting a high of $26,416 in the afternoon before pulling back to support above $26,100, which has provided a consistent level of resistance since the middle of August.

BTC/USD Chart by TradingView

“September Bitcoin futures prices [were] higher again in early U.S. trading Wednesday, on a rebound after hitting a six-month low Monday,” according to Kitco senior technical analyst Jim Wyckoff.

Bitcoin futures 1-day chart. Source: Kitco

“The bulls have stabilized prices now, but have much more heavy lifting to do in the near term, to suggest a price uptrend can be started,” Wyckoff said. “The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage as a price downtrend line remains in place on the daily chart.”

Wednesday’s CPI-inspired Trade Letter from MN Trading noted that “When interest rates are aggressively increased, the overall performance of risk-on assets in the markets tends to be less favorable.”

“We witnessed this trend for an extended period, where we seemed to be stuck in a downward spiral,” MN Trading analyst Daan Foppen said, but “The tide is turning.”

With recent CPI reports showing that inflation has been moderating, Foppen said this has given the Fed “fewer reasons to continue aggressively raising interest rates,” which gives risk-on assets “more room to increase in value once again.”

Delving into the price action for Bitcoin, Foppen said that on high time-frame charts, the weekly candles “appear quite indecisive, and the overall chart looks a bit shaky.”

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: MN Trading

“Yes, officially, we are still in an uptrend, and that’s certainly something to consider, but I don’t find the overall structure of the weekly timeframe very reassuring,” Foppen said. “We had a sweep to the upside followed by an aggressive move downward. Subsequently, we saw a retracement towards the weekly FVG [fair value gap], where we once again witnessed a strong rejection. Additionally, we have relative equal lows on the downside, and it’s highly likely that the price will move in that direction.”

Scaling down to the daily timeframe, Foppen said, “We can see another reason why an initial move downward is likely in the cards.”

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: MN Trading

“We have equal lows on the downside of the price. These levels are used to engineer liquidity,” he said. “What we can see, and it’s highly likely to be the case, is that these equal lows have formed above an imbalance on the daily timeframe. So, now the price has two reasons to go down: first, to remove liquidity below the equal lows, and second, to fill the imbalance on the daily timeframe.”

“Capital preservation is one of the most important aspects of trading,” Foppen said. “Especially in these times and current market conditions, it’s crucial not to do anything reckless. Price action is choppy, and we are trading within a narrow range.”

For this reason, he recommends adopting a strategy called “milk the range,” which involves “trading the extremes of the range until it no longer works.”

BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: MN Trading

“This provides stability and prevents you from constantly staring at the charts all day,” he said. “Set alerts at the range high and range low, wait for deviation and reclaim, and trade based on that. This is likely where you’ll find the most success.”

While Foppen is offering traders a potential way to book profits amid sideways trading, Adam Button, chief currency analyst and managing editor at Forexlive.com, warned that “A death cross has formed on the Bitcoin daily chart as the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average,” and said the last time this happened, “Bitcoin fell from $42,400 down to $15,700 from January to November of 2022 – a 63% decline.”

BTC 1-day chart with 50dma and 100dma. Source: Forexlive

“It’s a popular technical indicator but it’s not infallible,” Button said. “The previous death cross was in June 2021 and it was only followed by a 20% decline and a death cross in 2020 wasn’t followed by any selling at all. This week, a test of $25,000 found buyers but a break could lead to a fall to $20,000 or the January lows near $17,000.”

Mixed performance for the altcoin market

The top 200 altcoins traded mixed, with the winners outnumbering the losers, while most tokens traded within ±3% of Tuesday’s prices.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

VeThor Token (VTHO) was the standout token of the day with an increase of 57% after it was unexpectedly added to Coinbase. Other notable gainers include Storj (STORJ), Galxe (GAL), and Metal DAO (MTL), which increased 10.9%, 9.1%, and 8.3%, respectively. Astar (ASTR) was the biggest loser with a decline of 7.6%, followed by a loss of 5.5% for Akash Network (AKT) and Ribbon Finance (RBN).

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.04 trillion, and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 49.1%.

 

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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Amazon rejects plea to stop selling taxi roof signs as cab scam spreads across Canada

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After a long day at a work event in July, Kathryn Kozody was relieved when she spotted a car with a lit-up taxi sign.

She thought it was odd when the driver told her she’d have to pay her fare with a debit card. Still, a tired Kozody hopped in the car.

“I was like, ‘Fine, it’s kind of weird, but let’s go home,'” said Kozody, who lives in Calgary.

Nothing else seemed off — until the next day when she discovered that almost $2,000 was missing from her bank account. On top of that, her debit card had someone else’s name on it.

Kozody concluded that the taxi driver was a fraudster who, during the debit card transaction, recorded her PIN, stole her card and handed her back a fake.

“I started freaking out,” she said. “It’s terrifying when they have your debit card.”

It took Kozody about two weeks to get her money back from her bank, and she’s still rattled by the experience.

 Kathryn Kozody standing on the street
The day after taking what she thought was a ride in a taxi, Kathryn Kozody of Calgary found out someone had withdrawn almost $2,000 from her bank account. (James Young/CBC News)

“It really felt like an invasion of privacy and a violation to be a victim of this scam,” she said. “I really don’t want it to happen to anybody else.”

The taxi scam isn’t new; Toronto and Montreal have been seeing it for years. But the crime is becoming more widespread.

This summer, police in Calgary, Edmonton and at least five cities in southern Ontario, including Kingston and Ottawa, posted warnings online that they had received multiple reports of the scam.

Police and the Canadian Taxi Association say the fraudsters have a helping hand: with the click of a button, they can purchase a generic — but official looking — taxi roof sign on e-commerce sites like Amazon.

A Facebook post by the Edmonton Police.
Edmonton Police posted this alert on Facebook in July, warning people about an ongoing taxi scam. The city’s police department says that it received about 10 reports of the scam that month. (Edmonton Police/Facebook )

The taxi association has asked Amazon, by far Canada’s most popular online shopping site, to stop making the roof signs so easily available.

“They do have a moral responsibility to at least sell the signs to individuals that are properly licensed,” said association president Marc André Way.

However, the U.S.-based company continues to sell the product to all customers.

“These lights are legal to sell in Canada,” Amazon told CBC News in an email.

‘Eye-popping’ numbers

The taxi scam has several variations but typically ends the same way: the victim pays with a debit card, then the scammer secretly steals it and hands the victim a similar but fake card. Shortly thereafter, money disappears from the victim’s account.

Ron Hansen, deputy chief of police in Sarnia, Ont., said his department received 12 reports of the scam in July, with one victim losing $9,900.

Toronto police report that since June 2023 the department has received 919 reports of the taxi scam, totalling $1.7 million in losses.

Jessica Chin King standing on the street.
Jessica Chin King of Toronto said after a recent cab ride, she got a suspicious activity alert from her bank. She learned $600 had been withdrawn from her account. (Craig Chivers/CBC)

The numbers are “eye-popping,” said Toronto police detective David Coffey.

“When they do get a victim, they are quick to go right into the bank accounts. They’re quick to empty them out.”

Jessica Chin King of Toronto said just 15 minutes after a recent cab ride, she got a suspicious activity alert from her bank. Turns out, $600 had been withdrawn from her account.

“I was like, ‘Wow, I can’t believe that just happened.’ I was in shock,” said Chin King, whose bank later reimbursed the cash.

She said she too was fooled by the taxi sign atop the car.

“I was in the car with somebody who wasn’t a taxi driver. Anything could have happened,” she said. “I was thankful that it was only my bank [account] that was compromised.”

Taxi light for $35 on Amazon

CBC News bought a taxi sign from Amazon for $35. It has a magnetic strip on the bottom, so it easily sticks to the top of a car.

To power the light, an attached wire can be run through the driver’s window and plugged into the car’s auxiliary power outlet, also known as the cigarette lighter outlet.

The taxi association says licensed taxi drivers typically get their roof signs from speciality suppliers, and they are hardwired to the car — not powered via the cigarette lighter.

“When you see that … it’s obvious that it’s not a legitimate taxi,” said Way, the association president.

Last month, Way sent Amazon a letter on behalf of the Canadian Taxi Association, asking it to stop selling the product.

“This is not a safe, practical way to distribute the trusted ‘Taxi’ signs,” he wrote.

A yellow taxi sign with an attached wire.
CBC News ordered this $35 taxi sign on Amazon. The attached wire can be run through the driver’s window and plugged into the car’s auxiliary power outlet, while the lights for licensed drivers are hardwired into the vehicle. (Sophia Harris/CBC News)

But Amazon told Way — and CBC News — the signs will remain on its site, because the company isn’t breaking any rules.

“It’s going to be quite difficult, I think, for anyone to stop Amazon from selling a product that is perfectly legal to sell,” said Toronto criminal lawyer, Daniel Goldbloom. “It’s true that these taxi signs can be used to commit scams, but kitchen knives can be used to commit murder — and we don’t stop retailers from selling those.”

But Way isn’t giving up hope.

He says the taxi association also plans to ask other online retailers, such as Temu and eBay, to stop selling the taxi signs and will lobby provincial governments for legislation that regulates the sale of the product.

However, Coffey said he believes the best way to fight the taxi scam is to educate people about it.

“Never, never give another person control of your debit card,” the detective said.

Victims Chin King and Kozody also want to spread the word.

“The more people know, the less likely it is to happen again to somebody else,” Kozody said.

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