Since mid-summer, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, a benchmark for many loans, has steadily climbed, causing a spillover rise in other borrowing costs. The costs of mortgages, auto loans and credit card debt have all risen in response. The collective impact of higher rates across the economy could also weaken the government’s own finances.
Economy
Rising long-term interest rates are posing the latest threat to a US economic ‘soft landing’
The strike by the United Auto Workers, now in its third week with no resolution in sight, could reduce vehicle sales in coming months. And the threat of a government shutdown, narrowly averted this past weekend, looms large, especially given the chaos over the leadership of the House of Representatives. Far-right Republican House members deposed their leader, Rep. Kevin McCarthy, on Tuesday for working with Democrats to temporarily avoid a shutdown.
The economy is coming off a robust summer, fueled by strong consumer spending on travel, concert tours and movie blockbusters. The economy is estimated to have grown at a healthy 3.5% annual rate in the July-September quarter, according to economists at Goldman Sachs.
Yet growth will likely slow to a meager 0.7% annual rate in the final three months of the year, Goldman estimates. With borrowing rates high and inflation still relatively elevated, consumers, who drive about 70% of economic growth, are expected to spend more cautiously.
But the substantial rise in borrowing costs could intensify the economy’s slowdown. The yield on the 10-year Treasury touched a 16-year high of 4.8% on Tuesday, up from 3.3% in April. Last week, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage hit 7.3%, the highest rate in 23 years, according to mortgage buyer Freddie Mac.
On Tuesday, Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said she and other Fed policymakers will have to consider the rise in long-term rates in deciding whether to raise their key rate once more before year’s end. Her remarks suggested that the higher borrowing costs might lead the Fed to forgo another hike.
“That will influence not only our policy decisions but how the economy evolves over the next year,” Mester said. “Those tighter, higher rates will have an impact on the economy.”
The economy’s resilience in the face of higher rates could mean that borrowing costs will stay higher than they did after the 2008-2009 financial crisis, which led the Fed to cut its rate to near zero. During that period, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to as low as 1.5%, and mortgage rates even fell below 3% during the pandemic.
The Treasury Department is now also auctioning off more debt to cover the government’s swelling budget deficit, which reached $1.5 trillion this year and is expected to rise further in 2024. The supply of Treasurys is growing even as the Fed is reducing its holding of bonds. Overseas buyers have reduced their purchases, thereby forcing rates higher to attract buyers.
“All of that is driving these fears of higher rates, and no one knows when it’s going to stop,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rates strategy at TD Securities.
Benson Durham, a former Fed economist who is head of global policy at Piper Sandler, suggested that long-term rates are rising because investors consider it riskier to hold government debt for the long run when the economy appears particularly volatile and uncertain, as it does now.
And Fed officials, Durham noted, have shifted from well-telegraphed rate hikes to a hazier stance. Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly stressed that the central bank is “data dependent,” meaning it will raise rates again only if the latest economic data supports doing so — or forgo a rate hike if inflation falls steadily.
“What they’re really telling us is, ‘We’re all over it like a cheap suit, but we’re not sure what exactly we’re going to do,’ ” Durham said.
In addition to higher rates, student loans are expected to take a noticeable bite out of the economy. Roughly 43 million people will resume paying several hundred dollars a month to the government, which Goldman estimates could cut one-half of a percentage point from annual growth in the October-December quarter. More expensive gas could shave an additional 0.3 percentage point from growth in both the fourth quarter and the first three months of next year, Goldman estimates.
“We think the narrative is going to shift quite materially before the end of the year,” said David Page, head of macro research at AXA IM, a London-based investment manager, who expects the economy to actually shrink in the fourth quarter.
Rather than optimism for a “soft landing,” in which inflation is curbed without causing a recession, there will be renewed fears of a downturn, he said.
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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.
Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.
The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.
“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.
“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”
Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.
The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.
The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.
Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.
More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.
Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.
“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.
Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.
“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.
Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.
Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.
Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”
“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
FREDERICTON – The six chiefs of the Wolastoqey Nation in New Brunswick distributed a survey on Indigenous issues to political parties ahead of the provincial election, which is scheduled to kick off Thursday. Here are some of the answers from the Progressive Conservative, Liberal and Green parties.
Q: How does your party plan to demonstrate a renewed commitment to recognizing our joint treaty responsibilities and acknowledging that the lands and waters of this territory remain unceded?
Progressive Conservative: The party respectfully disagrees with the assertion that land title has been unceded. This is a legal question that has not been determined by the courts.
Liberal: When we form government, the first conversations the premier-designate will have is with First Nations leaders. We will publicly and explicitly acknowledge your treaty rights, and our joint responsibility as treaty people.
Green: The Green Party acknowledges that New Brunswick is situated on the unceded and unsurrendered territories of the Wolastoqiyik, Mi’kmaq and Peskotomuhkati peoples, covered by the Treaties of Peace and Friendship. Our party is committed to establishing true nation-to-nation relationships with First Nations, grounded in mutual respect and co-operation as the treaties intended.
Q: How does your party propose to approach the issue of provincial tax agreements with First Nations?
Progressive Conservative: The government of New Brunswick operates in a balanced and fair manner with all organizations, institutions and local governments that represent the citizens of this province, including First Nations. Therefore, we cannot offer tax agreements that do not demonstrate a benefit to all citizens.
Liberal: Recent discussions with First Nations chiefs shed light on the gaps that existed in the previous provincial tax agreements with First Nations. Our party is committed to negotiating and establishing new tax agreements with First Nations that address the local needs and priorities and ensure all parties have a fair deal.
Green: The Green Party is committed to fostering a respectful relationship with First Nations in New Brunswick and strongly opposes Premier Blaine Higgs’s decision to end tax-sharing agreements. We believe reinstating these agreements is crucial for supporting the economic development and job creation in First Nation communities.
Q: How will your party ensure more meaningful participation of Indigenous communities in provincial land use and resource management decision-making?
Progressive Conservative: The government of New Brunswick has invested significant resources in developing a robust duty to consult and engagement process. We are interested in fully involving First Nations in the development of natural resources, including natural gas development. We believe that the development of natural gas is better for the environment — because it allows for the shutdown of coal-fired power plants all over the globe — and it allows for a meaningful step along the path to reconciliation.
Liberal: Our party is focused on building strong relations with First Nations and their representatives based on mutual respect and a nation-to-nation relationship, with a shared understanding of treaty obligations and a recognition of your rights. This includes having First Nations at the table and engaged on all files, including land-use and resource management.
Green: We will develop a new Crown lands management framework with First Nations, focusing on shared management that respects the Peace and Friendship Treaties. We will enhance consultation by developing parameters for meaningful consultation with First Nations that will include a dispute resolution mechanism, so the courts become the last resort, not the default in the face of disagreements.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – A crew member of a Canadian Coast Guard ship has been lost at sea off southern Newfoundland.
The agency said in a release Wednesday that an extensive search and rescue effort for the man was ended Tuesday evening.
He was reported missing on Monday morning when the CCGS Vincent Massey arrived in St. John’s, N.L.
The coast guard says there was an “immediate” search on the vessel for the crew member and when he wasn’t located the sea and air search began.
Wednesday’s announcement said the agency was “devastated to confirm” the crew member had been lost at sea, adding that decisions to end searches are “never taken lightly.”
The coast guard says the employee was last seen on board Sunday evening as the vessel sailed along the northeast coast of Newfoundland.
Spokeswoman Kariane Charron says no other details are being provided at this time and that the RCMP will be investigating the matter as a missing person case.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
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