Canadian real estate markets are preparing for another raid, said one of the country’s largest banks. BMO warns the early data for September markets generally shows loosening conditions. Markets like Toronto, which usually have scarce supply, are now flush with the most inventory since 2010. Markets are only expected to get more loose in the coming months, as higher yields push mortgage rates even higher.
Greater Toronto Real Estate Saw The Most Inventory Since 2010
Canada’s largest real estate market showed less than stellar performance. Greater Toronto home sales showed an annual decline of 7% for September. At the same time, new listings ripped 44% higher, effectively creating a market where supply is rising while demand is falling, loosening conditions. The bank warns the number of active listings was the most for September since 2010.
These conditions are being observed broadly across the country, and mortgage rates aren’t going to help.
Canadian Mortgage Rates Expected To Continue Rising
Some sighed in relief as the Bank of Canada (BoC) hit pause again, expecting a repeat of January. Not likely to be the case this time around, and it may be good news for buyers.
“Since the spring, the lowest available mortgage rate is up 150- 200 bps,” explains Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO. “… With sales still struggling under the weight of high (and going even higher) mortgage rates, the market balance has swung back in favor of buyers again after a brief firming of conditions through the spring.”
The Rest of Ontario Is Doing Worse, Calgary Still Strong
Not all regions report sales at the beginning of the month, so we’ll have to wait until mid-month for the data. However, Kavcic’s preliminary data was less than optimistic, and he sees it getting worse in the near-term. “It’s not shaping up to be a pleasant fall/winter period in the GTA market,” he explained.
“Note that other regions look a bit different. The rest of Ontario is probably seeing even soggier conditions than the core of the GTA; within the GTA, condo-market conditions look much looser than for single-detached; and a few other markets in Canada, namely Calgary, are still tight.”
OTTAWA – The Canadian Real Estate Association says the number of homes sold in August fell compared with a year ago as the market remained largely stuck in a holding pattern despite borrowing costs beginning to come down.
The association says the number of homes sold in August fell 2.1 per cent compared with the same month last year.
On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, national home sales edged up 1.3 per cent from July.
CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart says that with forecasts of lower interest rates throughout the rest of this year and into 2025, “it makes sense that prospective buyers might continue to hold off for improved affordability, especially since prices are still well behaved in most of the country.”
The national average sale price for August amounted to $649,100, a 0.1 per cent increase compared with a year earlier.
The number of newly listed properties was up 1.1 per cent month-over-month.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.
Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.
She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.
The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.
One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
MONTREAL – The Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers says Montreal-area home sales rose 9.3 per cent in August compared with the same month last year, with levels slightly higher than the historical average for this time of year.
The association says home sales in the region totalled 2,991 for the month, up from 2,737 in August 2023.
The median price for all housing types was up year-over-year, led by a six per cent increase for the price of a plex at $763,000 last month.
The median price for a single-family home rose 5.2 per cent to $590,000 and the median price for a condominium rose 4.4 per cent to $407,100.
QPAREB market analysis director Charles Brant says the strength of the Montreal resale market contrasts with declines in many other Canadian cities struggling with higher levels of household debt, lower savings and diminishing purchasing power.
Active listings for August jumped 18 per cent compared with a year earlier to 17,200, while new listings rose 1.7 per cent to 4,840.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.
