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Opinion | Today’s Opinions: U.S. economy; Clarence Thomas; Israel; and more

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In today’s edition:

The economy is good, unless you say it’s bad

Here’s some good news: The U.S. economy is beating forecasts. Here’s some great news: Those forecasts were made even before the pandemic upended everything.

So with GDP growing at a brisk annualized rate of almost 5 percent, why does everybody still think the economy is so bad?

Catherine Rampell’s column takes a tour through this week’s Commerce Department report on the economy, which also contained encouraging numbers on inflation and rising wages. Things, in short, are looking very good.

But look over your shoulder, as many Americans seem to be doing, and the shock of inflation is still there, preserved in the freezer-case window next to the very expensive Eggos. As Catherine writes, “historical research from developed countries suggests that few things make the public angrier than an unexpected burst of inflation.”

Ramesh Ponnuru frames Americans’ discontent a little differently. He writes that wages just haven’t caught up to prices. A great chart in his column shows that wages are one area in which growth is still well below pre-pandemic trends.

“Americans will not consider the economy to be performing well unless their paychecks rise faster than their bills,” Ramesh predicts, arguing also that if the people who make up an economy say the economy is not doing well, it isn’t, period.

Could Republicans do better? The Editorial Board pulled together what it found to be the 2024 presidential candidates’ best and worst ideas for the economy.

Winners included Nikki Haley’s sensible proposals to reform Social Security; losers included Vivek Ramaswamy’s, well, mostly everything. Find the full list in the editorial.

Prudent loan forgiveness?

“The case of Clarence Thomas’s motor home gets curiouser and curiouser.” I’m always saying this!

That’s the headline on Ruth Marcus’s column on the latest news of the Supreme Court justice’s fishy financial entanglements. If you’re not up to date, Thomas had claimed he repaid the $267,000 loan from a friend that allowed him to purchase a luxury motor home. But now, a Senate Finance Committee report’s findings on the transaction don’t square with that claim.

If this were a one-off, fine, maybe. But after all the other money high jinks, Ruth writes, Thomas “has forfeited the benefit of the doubt.”

Chaser: Read Alexandra Petri’s imaginary dispatch from the luxury yacht Thomas wished was actually a motor home parked in a Walmart parking lot.

From George Will’s column explaining his concern about the military readiness of the Navy and, therefore, its deterrence capabilities. He considers the fleet “shockingly short of capacities commensurate with the world’s multiplying threats.”

And things aren’t really getting fixed, either. To comply with certain international commitments, the United States would need to be building on average at least 2.3 attack subs every year; it is building 1.2.

Take one more step back: “Shipbuilding facilities sufficient to fulfill the aspirations do not exist and cannot be quickly created,” George writes. That’s not to mention the military’s recruiting shortfalls.

The country is becoming complacent, George worries, and history is not usually kind to leaders who flub safeguards against war.

Chaser: Last month, former defense secretary Mark Esper proposed some promising solutions for the military’s dip in recruiting.

More politics

As different as this crisis in the Middle East feels from earlier emergencies in the area — on scale, on global attention — the challenge the United States faces is the same as ever, David Ignatius writes: “How can it protect Israel, its closest ally in the region, while also bolstering stability and maintaining its partnerships with Arab neighbors?”

David recognizes it as a tricky tightrope and lauds President Biden as a particularly talented funambulist so far. His column lays out where the United States ought to go from here, all the while keeping up its leadership mantle.

Jason Willick, however, is not so convinced that the administration is making the right moves. His column is a warning: Constrain Israel too much, and the region might end up more dangerous than ever.

Chaser: Chuck Lane spoke this week with the daughter of an Israeli held hostage by Hamas. Her plea to the world is moving.

Smartest, fastest

It’s a goodbye. It’s a haiku. It’s… The Bye-Ku.

Forgive inflation

But don’t ever forget it

(Also, don’t forgive)

Plus! A Friday bye-ku (Fri-ku!) from reader Karen P.:

Poor little peace dove

Feathers charred, plucked out and lost

No calm for this world

***

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Economy

B.C.’s debt and deficit forecast to rise as the provincial election nears

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VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.

Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.

Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”

The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.

Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.

“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”

Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.

Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.

Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.

B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.

The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.

“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”

Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.

Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.

The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.

Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.

Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Mark Carney mum on carbon-tax advice, future in politics at Liberal retreat

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NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.

But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.

He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.

Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.

Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Nova Scotia bill would kick-start offshore wind industry without approval from Ottawa

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HALIFAX – The Nova Scotia government has introduced a bill that would kick-start the province’s offshore wind industry without federal approval.

Natural Resources Minister Tory Rushton says amendments within a new omnibus bill introduced today will help ensure Nova Scotia meets its goal of launching a first call for offshore wind bids next year.

The province wants to offer project licences by 2030 to develop a total of five gigawatts of power from offshore wind.

Rushton says normally the province would wait for the federal government to adopt legislation establishing a wind industry off Canada’s East Coast, but that process has been “progressing slowly.”

Federal legislation that would enable the development of offshore wind farms in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador has passed through the first and second reading in the Senate, and is currently under consideration in committee.

Rushton says the Nova Scotia bill mirrors the federal legislation and would prevent the province’s offshore wind industry from being held up in Ottawa.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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