Business

Canada’s economy faces $900-billion mortgage renewal shock

Published

1 year ago

November 3, 2023

The sharp run-up in interest rates over the past 19 months has been painful for consumers, but unless rates drop significantly, almost two-thirds of Canadian mortgage holders still face a punishing “payment shock” over the next three years.

Between 2024 and 2026, an estimated $900-billion worth of Canadian mortgages – almost 60 per cent of all outstanding mortgages at chartered banks – are due to renew and could face a sharp increase in payments, according to a report released this week by Darko Mihelic, an analyst who covers the banking sector for RBC Capital Markets. Those payment increases range from a weighted average of 32 per cent next year to 48 per cent in 2026.

The focus of the report is the impact the payment shocks will have on the retail operations at Canada’s big banks, but the economic fallout is obvious if the current interest rate environment persists.

The biggest shock awaits variable-rate mortgages set to renew in 2026. A five-year variable mortgage renewing that October would see payments jump 76 per cent if mortgage rates stayed around 6 per cent. A one-percentage-point drop to 5 per cent would ease the payment shock, but only to 63 per cent. “Interest rates would need to decline significantly to ‘save’ this cohort,” the report says. Even if the Bank of Canada were to slash its benchmark rate to 0.25 per cent by that year, payments for variable-rate mortgages as a whole would still shoot up 20 per cent.

There have been fears these increases could lead to a rise in defaults, but Mr. Mihelic believes those fears are overblown. That’s because banks are already taking measures to help overstretched borrowers, such as working with their clients to increase monthly payments or extending the amortization of their loans.

But those measures will still leave households with less money to spend elsewhere. As it is, the report notes, the Bank of Canada’s latest consumer survey found that almost 60 per cent of respondents have been reducing their spending.

Decoder is a weekly feature that unpacks an important economic chart.

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Business

Cineplex reports $24.7M Q3 loss on Competition Tribunal penalty

Published

2 hours ago

November 6, 2024

Anne Joseph

TORONTO – Cineplex Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year ago as it was hit by a fine for deceptive marketing practices imposed by the Competition Tribunal.

The movie theatre company says it lost $24.7 million or 39 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $29.7 million or 40 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The results in the most recent quarter included a $39.2-million provision related to the Competition Tribunal decision, which Cineplex is appealing.

The Competition Bureau accused the company of misleading theatregoers by not immediately presenting them with the full price of a movie ticket when they purchased seats online, a view the company has rejected.

Revenue for the quarter totalled $395.6 million, down from $414.5 million in the same quarter last year, while theatre attendance totalled 13.3 million for the quarter compared with nearly 15.7 million a year earlier.

Box office revenue per patron in the quarter climbed to $13.19 compared with $12 in the same quarter last year, while concession revenue per patron amounted to $9.85, up from $8.44 a year ago.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:CGX)

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Restaurant Brands reports US$357M Q3 net income, down from US$364M a year ago

Published

1 day ago

November 5, 2024

Anne Joseph

TORONTO – Restaurant Brands International Inc. reported net income of US$357 million for its third quarter, down from US$364 million in the same quarter last year.

The company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, says its profit amounted to 79 cents US per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with 79 cents US per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue for the parent company of Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes and Firehouse Subs, totalled US$2.29 billion, up from US$1.84 billion in the same quarter last year.

Consolidated comparable sales were up 0.3 per cent.

On an adjusted basis, Restaurant Brands says it earned 93 cents US per diluted share in its latest quarter, up from an adjusted profit of 90 cents US per diluted share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents US per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:QSR)

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Electric and gas utility Fortis reports $420M Q3 profit, up from $394M a year ago

Published

1 day ago

November 5, 2024

Anne Joseph

ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – Fortis Inc. reported a third-quarter profit of $420 million, up from $394 million in the same quarter last year.

The electric and gas utility says the profit amounted to 85 cents per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30, up from 81 cents per share a year earlier.

Fortis says the increase was driven by rate base growth across its utilities, and strong earnings in Arizona largely reflecting new customer rates at Tucson Electric Power.

Revenue in the quarter totalled $2.77 billion, up from $2.72 billion in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Fortis says it earned 85 cents per share in its latest quarter, up from an adjusted profit of 84 cents per share in the third quarter of 2023.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 82 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:FTS)

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