In Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia, housing investment in 2022 fell by more than at any point since the 1990s. Photo by Tyler Anderson/National Post
Looking back at the year the Bank of Canada started hiking interest rates, things looked pretty good.
Canada’s real gross domestic product grew 3.8 per cent in 2022, with GDP rising in nine provinces. Saskatchewan led the pack with 6 per cent growth, followed by Alberta, at 5 per cent, according to provincial numbers released last week by Statistics Canada.
But while growth looked good on the surface, Marc Desormeaux, principal economist at Desjardins, spots several “troubling details” in the data that showed the early impacts of the most aggressive interest-rate hiking cycle in recent history.
In an effort to curb soaring inflation after the pandemic, the Bank of Canada raised its policy interest rate from 0.25 to 4.25 per cent in 2022. Three more rate hikes in 2023 brought the rate to the current 5 per cent.
“We already knew how much of a drag housing posed at the national level last year as interest rates rose sharply, but the breadth of weakness and depth in some regions was striking,” said Desormeaux in a note.
After hitting record-highs in 2021, housing investment dropped 12.1 per cent in 2022, falling in seven provinces, a count only exceeded during severe recessions in the past, he said.
Residential capital’s share of economic output in 2022 was below the average of the decade before the pandemic everywhere except in the Maritimes.
In Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia, this investment fell by more than at any point since the 1990s.
In Ontario and B.C., the economies where the housing market holds the biggest sway, growth would have been over 5 per cent if it was not for the decline in real estate, said Desormeaux. As it was, 2022 GDP for Ontario came in at 3.9 per cent and 3.8 per cent for B.C.
Home sales in these two provinces fell sharply as interest rates climbed. When the Bank of Canada paused rates at 4.50 per cent in early 2023, the market experienced a robust recovery that surprised economists. However, the decline resumed when the Bank hiked rates again in June and July, bringing the rate to 5 per cent.
Interest rates have been on pause since then, but Desjardins sees less chance of a rebound this time.
Higher borrowing costs have made the housing market even more unaffordable, and the “higher for longer” narrative from central banks will keep fixed mortgage rates elevated until the Bank of Canada cuts rates next year, said Desormeaux.
Another warning sign from 2022 was savings rates. The pile of money Canadians put away during the pandemic initially shielded consumers from the effects of high inflation and interest rates, but there were already signs that year that that defence was weakening.
Canada’s household saving rate dropped from 10.5 per cent in 2021 to 5.4 per cent in 2022, as higher spending exceeded gains in income, said Statistics Canada.
Ontario saw the steepest decline, falling to 3.2 per cent, mainly because of higher interest payments.
“In fact, households in this province had the highest debt service ratio in the country (8.1 per cent compared with 6.8 per cent for Canada), mainly because of increases in mortgage debt,” said Statistics Canada.
Meanwhile, Saskatchewan was the only province that saw its savings rate improve, rising to 8.7 per cent as incomes were boosted by improved crop conditions and higher grain prices.
Even though the provincial GDP data is a year behind, it still provides “critical takeaways” for growth in 2023 and beyond, said Desormeaux.
The drag from the housing market and risks of greater financial stress in heavily indebted regions such as Ontario and British Columbia reinforces Desjardins’ view that oil-producing provinces such as Alberta are best positioned to weather the downturn.
The records just keep coming in Canada’s rental market. The average asking price for a rental unit has hit new highs now for six months in a row, topping at $2,178 in October.
Vancouver is still the most expensive city for renters, with the average one-bedroom listing at $2,872, almost 7 per cent higher than last year. Toronto is a close second with a one-bedroom fetching $2,607.
But national rent inflation is actually being fuelled mainly by price increases in Alberta, Quebec and Nova Scotia. Rent in Calgary has jumped 14 per cent year over year to $1,733.
Ontario showed the slowest annual growth in apartment rents during October, rising 4.6 per cent to $2,492, said the data released by Rentals.ca and Urbanation Monday.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
Losing a loved one is never easy, and the legal steps that follow can add even more stress to an already difficult time.
For years, families in Vancouver (and Canada in general) have struggled with a complex probate process—filled with paperwork and legal challenges.
Thankfully, recent changes to Canada’s probate laws aim to make this process simpler and easier to navigate.
Let’s unearth how these updates can simplify the process for you and your family.
What is probate?
Probate might sound complicated, but it’s simply the legal process of settling someone’s estate after death.
Here’s how it works.
Validating the will. The court checks if the will is legal and valid.
Appointing an executor. If named in the will, the executor manages the estate. If not, the court appoints someone.
Settling debts and taxes. The executor (and you) pays debts and taxes before anything can be given.
Distributing the estate. Once everything is settled, the executor distributes the remaining assets according to the will or legal rules.
Probate ensures everything is done by the book, giving you peace of mind during a difficult time.
Recent Changes in Canadian Probate Laws
Several updates to probate law in the country are making the process smoother for you and your family.
Here’s a closer look at the fundamental changes that are making a real difference.
1) Virtual witnessing of wills
Now permanent in many provinces, including British Columbia, wills can be signed and witnessed remotely through video calls.
Such a change makes estate planning more accessible, especially for those in remote areas or with limited mobility.
2) Simplified process for small estates
Smaller estates, like those under 25,000 CAD in BC, now have a faster, simplified probate process.
Fewer forms and legal steps mean less hassle for families handling modest estates.
3) Substantial compliance for wills
Courts can now approve wills with minor errors if they reflect the person’s true intentions.
This update prevents unnecessary legal challenges and ensures the deceased’s wishes are respected.
These changes help make probate less stressful and more efficient for you and other families across Canada.
The Probate Process and You: The Role of a Probate Lawyer
(Image: Freepik.com)
Working with a probate lawyer in Vancouver can significantly simplify the probate process, especially given the city’s complex legal landscape.
Here’s how they can help.
Navigating the legal process
Probate lawyers ensure all legal steps are followed, preventing costly mistakes and ensuring the estate is managed properly.
Handling paperwork and deadlines
They manage all the paperwork and court deadlines, taking the burden off of you during this difficult time.
Resolving disputes
If conflicts arise, probate lawyers resolve them, avoiding legal battles.
Providing you peace of mind
With a probate lawyer’s expertise, you can trust that the estate is being handled efficiently and according to the law.
With a skilled probate lawyer, you can ensure the entire process is smooth and stress-free.
Why These Changes Matter
The updates to probate law make a big difference for Canadian families. Here’s why.
Less stress for you. Simplified processes mean you can focus on grieving, not paperwork.
Faster estate settlements. Estates are settled more quickly, so beneficiaries don’t face long delays.
Fewer disputes. Courts can now honor will with minor errors, reducing family conflicts.
Accessible for everyone. Virtual witnessing and easier rules for small estates make probate more accessible for everyone, no matter where you live.
With these changes, probate becomes smoother and more manageable for you and your family.
How to Prepare for the Probate Process
Even with the recent changes, being prepared makes probate smoother. Here are a few steps to help you prepare.
Create a will. Ensure a valid will is in place to avoid complications.
Choose an executor. Pick someone responsible for managing the estate and discuss their role with them.
Organize documents. Keep key financial and legal documents in one place for easy access.
Talk to your family. Have open conversations with your family to prevent future misunderstandings.
Get legal advice. Consult with a probate lawyer to ensure everything is legally sound and up-to-date.
These simple steps make the probate process easier for everyone involved.
Wrapping Up: Making Probate Easier in Vancouver
Recent updates in probate law are simplifying the process for families, from virtual witnessing to easier estate rules. These reforms are designed to ease the burden, helping you focus on what matters—grieving and respecting your dead loved ones’ final wishes.
Despite these changes, it’s best to consult a probate lawyer to ensure you can manage everything properly. Remember, they’re here to help you during this difficult time.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was higher in late-morning trading, helped by strength in energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also moved up.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 34.91 points at 23,736.98.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 178.05 points at 41,800.13. The S&P 500 index was up 28.38 points at 5,661.47, while the Nasdaq composite was up 133.17 points at 17,725.30.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.56 cents US compared with 73.57 cents US on Monday.
The November crude oil contract was up 68 cents at US$69.70 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up three cents at US$2.40 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$7.80 at US$2,601.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.28 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.
