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S&P 500 Up 2% as Yields Tumble After CPI Surprise: Markets Wrap

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(Bloomberg) — Stocks climbed while bond yields sank as an unexpected inflation slowdown bolstered bets the Federal Reserve’s aggressive hiking cycle is now over — and its next move will be a cut in mid-2024.

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More than 95% of the S&P 500 companies rose, with the gauge up 2%. Tesla Inc. led gains in megacaps and Nvidia Corp. extended its rally into a 10th straight session. Financial shares also saw a big advance, especially regional banks — which climbed 6%. The Russell 2000 index of small caps jumped over 4% — the most in a year. Treasury two-year yields plunged about 20 basis points to 4.85%. The dollar fell 1%. Fed swaps priced in 50 basis points of easing in July.

Read: Wall Street Exults ‘We’re Going to Win This Thing’: Surveillance

The so-called core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy costs, increased 0.2% from September, according to government figures. Economists favor the core gauge as a better indicator of underlying inflation than the overall CPI. That measure was little changed, restrained by cheaper gasoline.

To Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance, whether or not the economy can stay out of recession remains to be seen, but the market should continue to rally as people begin to accept that higher rates are off the table — which should push stock and bond prices higher.

“The last of investors not convinced the Fed is done are likely throwing in the towel,” said Bryce Doty at Sit Fixed Income Advisors. “The next Fed action is more likely to be a cut next summer than another rate increase.”

The drop in inflation suggests that recent monetary policy has been doing its job and make the prospect of a soft landing ever more likely, according to Richard Flynn at Charles Schwab UK

“This good news reinforces the likelihood that central bankers will hold off from further rate hikes in this cycle, which is the direction they seem to be leaning in any case.”

“With the US economy holding up, the inflation data are ‘soft-landing nirvana’ for the equity markets,” said Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research.

“We need to see more months with soft inflation data, but the stock and bond market is celebrating today,” said Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group. “We’re set up nicely for a year-end rally.”

Fedspeak

Traders will also keep an eye on another slew of Fed speakers throughout the day to get their thoughts on the latest data and how that would impact the central bank’s next steps, especially when it comes to the outlook for rate cuts.

Fed Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said he’s not convinced inflation is on a clear path toward the central bank’s 2% target despite “real progress” curbing price pressures in recent months.

Bond giant Pacific Investment Management Co. — among the many whose expectations for a rally this year were disappointed — is renewing the call for 2024.

Bonds “have rarely been as attractive as they appear today” relative to stocks, Pimco managers Erin Browne, Geraldine Sundstrom and Emmanuel Sharef say in a new report predicting “prime time” for the asset class in 2024.

Investors turned the most bullish on bonds since the global financial crisis on “big conviction” that rates will move lower in 2024, according to the latest Bank of America Corp. fund manager survey. The poll showed investors were dumping cash to hold the biggest overweight position in bonds since 2009.

BofA’s Michael Hartnett said the “big change” was not the macro outlook, but expectations that inflation and yields will move lower in 2024.

Elsewhere, Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said interest rates in the UK will need to remain in “restrictive” territory to choke off the risk that inflation persists. China plans to provide at least 1 trillion yuan ($137 billion) of low-cost financing to the nation’s urban village renovation and affordable housing programs in its latest effort to shore up the struggling property market, according to people familiar with the matter.

Corporate Highlights:

  • Snap Inc. climbed after the Information reported Amazon.com Inc. agreed to let its users shop for products directly from ads on the Snapchat app.
  • Home Depot Inc. narrowed its guidance for a decline in this year’s profit and revenue as home-improvement demand wanes.
  • Boeing Co. extended its successful order haul on the second day of the Dubai Air Show, winning a deal from Ethiopian Airlines for more narrow- and widebody aircraft while rival Airbus SE continued to chase an increasingly elusive deal with Emirates.
  • Glencore Plc will buy a majority stake in Teck Resources Ltd.’s coal business, ending a months-long saga that transfixed the mining industry and setting the stage for the commodity giant to exit the coal business itself.
  • Siemens Energy AG has secured a €15 billion ($16.2 billion) deal with the German government, its biggest shareholder Siemens AG and a consortium of banks, as the troubled manufacturer weathers massive losses at its wind-turbine unit.

Key events this week:

  • China retail sales, industrial production, fixed-asset investment, Wednesday
  • Japan GDP, industrial production, Wednesday
  • UK CPI, Wednesday
  • US retail sales, business inventories, PPI, Empire manufacturing, Wednesday
  • Target earnings, Wednesday
  • China new home prices, Thursday
  • US initial jobless claims, industrial production, Thursday
  • Walmart earnings, Thursday
  • US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping expected to speak at APEC leaders summit, Thursday
  • Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, New York Fed President John Williams and Fed vice chair for supervision Michael Barr speak, Thursday
  • Bank of England deputy governor Dave Ramsden and ECB President Christine Lagarde speak at event, Thursday
  • US housing starts, Friday
  • US Congress faces a midnight deadline to pass a federal spending measure, Friday
  • ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks, Friday
  • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Boston Fed President Susan Collins and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

  • The S&P 500 rose 2% as of 10:38 a.m. New York time
  • The Nasdaq 100 rose 2.2%
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.5%
  • The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 1.5%
  • The MSCI World index rose 2%

Currencies

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.9%
  • The euro rose 1.3% to $1.0836
  • The British pound rose 1.5% to $1.2468
  • The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 150.83 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

  • Bitcoin fell 1% to $36,119.65
  • Ether fell 1.2% to $2,035.61

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined 18 basis points to 4.46%
  • Germany’s 10-year yield declined 10 basis points to 2.61%
  • Britain’s 10-year yield declined 13 basis points to 4.18%

Commodities

  • West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.8% to $79.65 a barrel
  • Spot gold rose 1% to $1,966.98 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Vildana Hajric.

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The #1 Skill I Look For When Hiring

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File this column under “for what it’s worth.”

“Communication is one of the most important skills you require for a successful life.” — Catherine Pulsifer, author.

I’m one hundred percent in agreement with Pulsifer, which is why my evaluation of candidates begins with their writing skills. If a candidate’s writing skills and verbal communication skills, which I’ll assess when interviewing, aren’t well above average, I’ll pass on them regardless of their skills and experience.

 

Why?

 

Because business is fundamentally about getting other people to do things—getting employees to be productive, getting customers to buy your products or services, and getting vendors to agree to a counteroffer price. In business, as in life in general, you can’t make anything happen without effective communication; this is especially true when job searching when your writing is often an employer’s first impression of you.

 

Think of all the writing you engage in during a job search (resumes, cover letters, emails, texts) and all your other writing (LinkedIn profile, as well as posts and comments, blogs, articles, tweets, etc.) employers will read when they Google you to determine if you’re interview-worthy.

 

With so much of our communication today taking place via writing (email, text, collaboration platforms such as Microsoft Teams, Slack, ClickUp, WhatsApp and Rocket.Chat), the importance of proficient writing skills can’t be overstated.

 

When assessing a candidate’s writing skills, you probably think I’m looking for grammar and spelling errors. Although error-free writing is important—it shows professionalism and attention to detail—it’s not the primary reason I look at a candidate’s writing skills.

 

The way someone writes reveals how they think.

 

  • Clear writing = Clear thinking
  • Structured paragraphs = Structured mind
  • Impactful sentences = Impactful ideas

 

Effective writing isn’t about using sophisticated vocabulary. Hemingway demonstrated that deceptively simple, stripped-down prose can captivate readers. Effective writing takes intricate thoughts and presents them in a way that makes the reader think, “Damn! Why didn’t I see it that way?” A good writer is a dead giveaway for a good thinker. More than ever, the business world needs “good thinkers.”

 

Therefore, when I come across a candidate who’s a good writer, hence a good thinker, I know they’re likely to be able to write:

 

  • Emails that don’t get deleted immediately and are responded to
  • Simple, concise, and unambiguous instructions
  • Pitches that are likely to get read
  • Social media content that stops thumbs
  • Human-sounding website copy
  • Persuasively, while attuned to the reader’s possible sensitivities

 

Now, let’s talk about the elephant in the room: AI, which job seekers are using en masse. Earlier this year, I wrote that AI’s ability to hyper-increase an employee’s productivity—AI is still in its infancy; we’ve seen nothing yet—in certain professions, such as writing, sales and marketing, computer programming, office and admin, and customer service, makes it a “fewer employees needed” tool, which understandably greatly appeals to employers. In my opinion, the recent layoffs aren’t related to the economy; they’re due to employers adopting AI. Additionally, companies are trying to balance investing in AI with cost-cutting measures. CEOs who’ve previously said, “Our people are everything,” have arguably created today’s job market by obsessively focusing on AI to gain competitive advantages and reduce their largest expense, their payroll.

 

It wouldn’t be a stretch to assume that most AI usage involves generating written content, content that’s obvious to me, and likely to you as well, to have been written by AI. However, here’s the twist: I don’t particularly care.

 

Why?

 

Because the fundamental skill I’m looking for is the ability to organize thoughts and communicate effectively. What I care about is whether the candidate can take AI-generated content and transform it into something uniquely valuable. If they can, they’re demonstrating the skills of being a good thinker and communicator. It’s like being a great DJ; anyone can push play, but it takes skill to read a room and mix music that gets people pumped.

 

Using AI requires prompting effectively, which requires good writing skills to write clear and precise instructions that guide the AI to produce desired outcomes. Prompting AI effectively requires understanding structure, flow and impact. You need to know how to shape raw information, such as milestones throughout your career when you achieved quantitative results, into a compelling narrative.

So, what’s the best way to gain and enhance your writing skills? As with any skill, you’ve got to work at it.

Two rules guide my writing:

 

  • Use strong verbs and nouns instead of relying on adverbs, such as “She dashed to the store.” instead of “She ran quickly to the store.” or “He whispered to the child.” instead of “He spoke softly to the child.”
  • Avoid using long words when a shorter one will do, such as “use” instead of “utilize” or “ask” instead of “inquire.” As attention spans get shorter, I aim for clarity, simplicity and, most importantly, brevity in my writing.

 

Don’t just string words together; learn to organize your thoughts, think critically, and communicate clearly. Solid writing skills will significantly set you apart from your competition, giving you an advantage in your job search and career.

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Nick Kossovan, a well-seasoned veteran of the corporate landscape, offers “unsweetened” job search advice. You can send Nick your questions to artoffindingwork@gmail.com.

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Politics likely pushed Air Canada toward deal with ‘unheard of’ gains for pilots

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MONTREAL – Politics, public opinion and salary hikes south of the border helped push Air Canada toward a deal that secures major pay gains for pilots, experts say.

Hammered out over the weekend, the would-be agreement includes a cumulative wage hike of nearly 42 per cent over four years — an enormous bump by historical standards — according to one source who was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter. The previous 10-year contract granted increases of just two per cent annually.

The federal government’s stated unwillingness to step in paved the way for a deal, noted John Gradek, after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made it plain the two sides should hash one out themselves.

“Public opinion basically pressed the federal cabinet, including the prime minister, to keep their hands clear of negotiations and looking at imposing a settlement,” said Gradek, who teaches aviation management at McGill University.

After late-night talks at a hotel near Toronto’s Pearson airport, the country’s biggest airline and the union representing 5,200-plus aviators announced early Sunday morning they had reached a tentative agreement, averting a strike that would have grounded flights and affected some 110,000 passengers daily.

The relative precariousness of the Liberal minority government as well as a push to appear more pro-labour underlay the prime minister’s hands-off approach to the negotiations.

Trudeau said Friday the government would not step in to fix the impasse — unlike during a massive railway work stoppage last month and a strike by WestJet mechanics over the Canada Day long weekend that workers claimed road roughshod over their constitutional right to collective bargaining. Trudeau said the government respects the right to strike and would only intervene if it became apparent no negotiated deal was possible.

“They felt that they really didn’t want to try for a third attempt at intervention and basically said, ‘Let’s let the airline decide how they want to deal with this one,'” said Gradek.

“Air Canada ran out of support as the week wore on, and by the time they got to Friday night, Saturday morning, there was nothing left for them to do but to basically try to get a deal set up and accepted by ALPA (Air Line Pilots Association).”

Trudeau’s government was also unlikely to consider back-to-work legislation after the NDP tore up its agreement to support the Liberal minority in Parliament, Gradek said. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, whose party has traditionally toed a more pro-business line, also said last week that Tories “stand with the pilots” and swore off “pre-empting” the negotiations.

Air Canada CEO Michael Rousseau had asked Ottawa on Thursday to impose binding arbitration pre-emptively — “before any travel disruption starts” — if talks failed. Backed by business leaders, he’d hoped for an effective repeat of the Conservatives’ move to head off a strike in 2012 by legislating Air Canada pilots and ground crew to stick to their posts before any work stoppage could start.

The request may have fallen flat, however. Gradek said he believes there was less anxiety over the fallout from an airline strike than from the countrywide railway shutdown.

He also speculated that public frustration over thousands of cancelled flights would have flowed toward Air Canada rather than Ottawa, prompting the carrier to concede to a deal yielding “unheard of” gains for employees.

“It really was a total collapse of the Air Canada bargaining position,” he said.

Pilots are slated to vote in the coming weeks on the four-year contract.

Last year, pilots at Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and American Airlines secured agreements that included four-year pay boosts ranging from 34 per cent to 40 per cent, ramping up pressure on other carriers to raise wages.

After more than a year of bargaining, Air Canada put forward an offer in August centred around a 30 per cent wage hike over four years.

But the final deal, should union members approve it, grants a 26 per cent increase in the first year alone, retroactive to September 2023, according to the source. Three wage bumps of four per cent would follow in 2024 through 2026.

Passengers may wind up shouldering some of that financial load, one expert noted.

“At the end of the day, it’s all us consumers who are paying,” said Barry Prentice, who heads the University of Manitoba’s transport institute.

Higher fares may be mitigated by the persistence of budget carrier Flair Airlines and the rapid expansion of Porter Airlines — a growing Air Canada rival — as well as waning demand for leisure trips. Corporate travel also remains below pre-COVID-19 levels.

Air Canada said Sunday the tentative contract “recognizes the contributions and professionalism of Air Canada’s pilot group, while providing a framework for the future growth of the airline.”

The union issued a statement saying that, if ratified, the agreement will generate about $1.9 billion of additional value for Air Canada pilots over the course of the deal.

Meanwhile, labour tension with cabin crew looms on the horizon. Air Canada is poised to kick off negotiations with the union representing more than 10,000 flight attendants this year before the contract expires on March 31.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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Federal $500M bailout for Muskrat Falls power delays to keep N.S. rate hikes in check

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HALIFAX – Ottawa is negotiating a $500-million bailout for Nova Scotia’s privately owned electric utility, saying the money will be used to prevent a big spike in electricity rates.

Federal Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson made the announcement today in Halifax, saying Nova Scotia Power Inc. needs the money to cover higher costs resulting from the delayed delivery of electricity from the Muskrat Falls hydroelectric plant in Labrador.

Wilkinson says that without the money, the subsidiary of Emera Inc. would have had to increase rates by 19 per cent over “the short term.”

Nova Scotia Power CEO Peter Gregg says the deal, once approved by the province’s energy regulator, will keep rate increases limited “to be around the rate of inflation,” as costs are spread over a number of years.

The utility helped pay for construction of an underwater transmission link between Newfoundland and Nova Scotia, but the Muskrat Falls project has not been consistent in delivering electricity over the past five years.

Those delays forced Nova Scotia Power to spend more on generating its own electricity.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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