The COVID-19 pandemic is having a major impact on business, markets and the economy. For continuous updates, follow along with The Financial Post’s James McLeod @jamespmcleod as he live blogs here. Send tips, announcements and information to jmcleod@postmedia.com.
2:13 p.m. — “Worse than 9/11”: U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that the COVID-19 pandemic is “Worse than 9/11 for the airline industry” and a bailout for Boeing Co. appears to be in the works, according to a report from Bloomberg.
Bloomberg is also saying that the Trump administration is considering allowing homeowners to delay morgage payments.
1:20 p.m. — Freeland says more economic support imminent: Speaking at a news conference in Ottawa, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said that she expects government action to support business and the economy “very soon.”
Freeland said that people should expect a very strong response.
“We have the fiscal firepower to act, and we will,” Freeland said.
“The federal government will do what it takes toget us through this crisis and make sure that Canadian workers, Canadian businesses are in a position to come roaring back when the measures imposed by social distancing can be set aside.”
1:15 p.m. — Shopify tracking supports for business: When I’m not liveblogging a pandemic, I normally write about tech. I’m finding the Shopify Inc. reaction to COVID-19 really interesting. The Ottawa-based e-commerce platform processes payments and performs other vital functions for more than a million merchants.
1:05 p.m. — Economic woes could hurt CAD more: Deutsche Bank strategist Michael Hsueh published new research today indicating it could get worse.
At worst, Hsueh said that the dollar could be trading at 66 cents by the end of the year.
“We believe the Canadian dollar does not yet fully price in a protracted oil shock. Circumstances are lining up for a more substantial weakening in CAD. We expect an oil shock which is both deep and persistent enough to result in a major oil industry downturn. We have written elsewhere that we see risks of oil falling below the previous cycle lows into the USD 20’s/bbl, and for more sustained periods than in 2015-16.”
Scroll down a little bit farther in this liveblog for a graph of the CAD price; it’s stark.
12:55 p.m. — TSX rebounding: After a drop of nearly 10 per cent on Monday, the TSX is rebounding today, with the market up by more than 4 per cent midday. Other major North American indexes, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Average are also in positive territory.
11:59 a.m. — Bank of Canada rate cut coming: Here’s an interesting little Twitter thread from FP columnist Kevin Carmichael on the Bank of Canada’s deliberations, and what to expect on macroeconomic policy in response to COVID-19.
From Kevin: Bottom line on the BoC: we’re going to 0.25% by April, if not sooner. A global recession obviously is a big deal, but oil prices are front and centre. Statement is a nice bit of transparency.
11:47 a.m. — Trudeau says more economic measures coming soon: Speaking to journalists in Ottawa, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he expects that the federal government will have more to announce on Wednesday about economic measures in response to COVID-19.
Trudeau also said that tax changes are coming: “By the end of the week we will have more to say about changes for the upcoming tax season.”
He also said that Ottawa is looking at recalling the House of Commons for a short session to pass legislation to modify the Employment Insurance program, and other federal services to aid the economy.
11:18 a.m. — Goldman, Morgan Stanley, declare global recession: Figuring out what’s happening in the economy is tough, as the COVID-19 situation is unfolding so quickly.
11:05 a.m. — Amazon shifting service: Bloomberg is reporting that Amazon.com Inc. is prioritizing essential goods and medical supplies in response to COVID-19.
Bloomberg reports: “On Tuesday, Amazon told third-party sellers on its marketplace that the company wouldn’t accept shipments from sellers in other product categories through at least April 5. Amazon said it was taking a similar approach with the big brands it buys directly from. Business Insider reported the restrictions on other product categories earlier.”
10:43 a.m. — Big six banks scaling back branch operations: The six largest banks in Canada will limit their hours and take other steps to encourage social distancing in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. That would include RBC, TD, Scotiabank, CIBC, BMO and National Bank.
The news came from the Canadian Bankers Association, shortly after CIBC announced measures to curtail branch activities.
10:30 a.m. — U.S. Treasury to seek US$850b stimulus: Bloomberg is reporting that U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is expected to seek a third stimulus package of US$850 billion, in response to the COVID-19 crisis. According to the report, the package would include a payroll tax cut and an airline bailout.
10:20 a.m. — ZipRecruiter job postings crater: In an early indication of how COVID-19 is impacting the economy, hiring service ZipRecruiter shared some data Tuesday which indicates that job postings are way down.
For the first two weeks of 2019, catering job postings are down by a staggering 67.9 per cent year-over-year, and restaurant jobs are down 42 per cent. According to the ZipRecruiter data, food service is the hardest hit, but other sectors are down too.
On the other hand, the company reports that cleaning job postings are up by 13.9 per cent, and nursing job postings have increased by 2.9 per cent.
10:15 a.m. — Posthaste roundup: In case you missed it, Financial Post editor Yadullah Hussain has a good roundup of the business landscape this morning with his regular Posthaste feature.
10:05 a.m. — Loonie sinking: Even before concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic went into overdrive, the Canadian dollar was down. Reuters reports that Tuesday morning, the Loonie hit a four-year low against the U.S. dollar.
On Friday, the Bank of Canada cut its key benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 0.75 per cent, then over the weekend the U.S. Federal Reserve slashed their rate to a range between zero and 0.25 per cent.
Part of the Canadian dollar weakness is driven by Canada’s economic reliance on oil production, and the crash in oil prices due to a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia. According to Bloomberg, WTI crude was trading at US$29.35 around 10 a.m. Tuesday.
9:45 a.m. — Markets open after a rough Monday: Markets bounced back a bit in the first minutes of trading Tuesday. From Reuters: “The main U.S. stock indexes opened higher on Tuesday, a day after their biggest drop since the 1987 crash, as efforts to contain the rapidly spreading coronavirus upended parts of the economy and dampened business sentiment.”
In Toronto, the TSX was also up a bit. Reuters reports: “The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index was up 158.48 points, or 1.28%, at 12,518.88.”
9:15 a.m. — CIBC adjusting bank branch operations:CIBC announced Tuesday that it will temporarily close 206 banking locations that do not offer over-the-counter banking services. Another 816 locations will remain open, but will have modified hours.
CIBC also said that clients facing financial hardship can call an advisor at 1-877-454-9030to discuss flexible options to improve cash flow. You can read the full release from CIBC here.
8:35 a.m. — Ontario state of emergency: Ontario declared a state of emergency at 8:30 a.m. Tuesday.
Premier Doug Ford said he is prohibiting public events with more than 50 people until March. 31. The order also closes indoor recreational programs, public schools, libraries, theatres, regulated child care centres, and all bars and restaurants except for takeout.
“This is not a provincial shutdown,” he said.
Ford said that the vast majority of businesses will still be able to operate. Grocery stores, convenience stores, pharmacies, office buildings, and construction sites can continue to operate.
Ford called for more support for businesses, and changes to Employment Insurance to support workers.
8 a.m. — Westjet slashes international flights: Overnight, Westjet announced that it is cutting international flights in response to COVID-19. This is a developing story, but initial information can be found here.
The crisis is having a huge impact on airlines. For a broader view of how that’s unfolding, check out Emily Jackson’s report from yesterday on the turmoil, and Air Canada’s decision to cut back on flights by 50 per cent.
March 17, 2020
Good morning! Today is shaping up to be a strange St. Patrick’s Day, with government officials telling people to skip the usual revelry, in light of the pandemic. As the pandemic continues to unfold, we’re still watching for government announcements about how to support business and soften the economic disruptions. Keep refreshing this page to stay up to date on the latest COVID-19 business news as it happens.
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
