FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz vowed Tuesday that his government will work “as fast as possible” to solve a budget crisis, but he offered few details on how he would achieve his goals of promoting clean energy and modernizing the struggling economy after a court decision struck down billions in planned spending.
Scholz and his quarrelsome governing coalition must decide what to cut next year after Germany’s top court ruled that 60 billion euros ($65 billion) in funding for renewable energy projects and relief for consumers and businesses from high energy prices caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine violated debt limits set out in the constitution.
Germans “need clarity in unsettled times,” Scholz said in a speech to parliament. He promised that the government would not abandon its goals of sharply reducing carbon emissions from fossil fuels and protecting social spending.
Speaking over outbursts of derisive laughter from opposition members, Scholz said it would be “a serious, an unforgivable mistake … to neglect the modernization of our country.”
In terms of where to reduce spending, he said a cap on consumers’ utility bills is no longer needed because energy prices have fallen, although the government would act if they rose again. “You’ll never walk alone,” Scholz said, quoting the song title in English.
The now-banned spending was aimed at some of the long-term problems plaguing growth in Europe’s largest economy, such as the need to invest in new sources of affordable renewable energy like wind, solar and hydrogen and to support battery and computer chip production.
That has led to calls from some to loosen the debt limits because they restrict the government’s response to new challenges.
But Scholz’s coalition of Social Democrats, Greens and pro-business Free Democrats doesn’t have the two-thirds majority to do that without the conservative opposition, the Christian Democrats, who brought the legal challenge in the first place.
Opposition leader Friedrich Merz criticized Scholz as a “know-it-all” who wasn’t willing to change course and “lacked any idea of how the country should develop in the coming years.” He vowed to uphold the debt limits.
There was a lack of details from Scholz on what could be cut next year. On top of that, a long-term solution could take years, possibly until after the next national elections scheduled for 2025.
Economists say spending cuts will only add to the challenges facing Germany after Russia cut off the cheap natural gas that fueled its factories, squeezing businesses and raising the cost of living for households paying more for energy.
The constitution limits deficits to 0.35% of economic output, though the government can go beyond that if there’s an emergency it didn’t create, such as the pandemic.
Germany’s constitutional court said the government could not shift unused emergency funding meant for COVID-19 relief to boost wind and solar projects, help with energy bills and encourage investment in computer chip production.
Some of the banned spending has already been used. To comply with the ruling, the government is changing the 2023 budget by declaring an emergency, citing Russia’s natural gas cutoff.
The question now is next year’s budget. The government would have to scramble to cover shortfalls of roughly 30 billion to 40 billion euros — plus 20 billion to 30 billion euros for 2025 — compared with earlier plans, according to Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg bank.
Some spending can be moved to public-private partnerships or taken over by the country’s development bank. But those fudges will only go so far.
Ultimately, spending may be reduced by as much as 0.5% of annual economic output for the next two budget years, Schmieding said.
The debt limits were enacted in 2009 after the government piled up debt paying to rebuild former East Germany after Germany reunified at the end of the Cold War and when tax revenue dropped during the 2007-2009 global financial crisis and Great Recession.
For years afterward, Germany balanced its budget or even ran small surpluses as the economy lived large on cheap Russian natural gas and booming exports of luxury cars and industrial machinery, with rapidly growing China serving as a major market. Economists say the government skimped on investment in infrastructure, renewable energy and digitalization — gaps it is now trying to make up.
The fallout has left Germany projected to be the worst-performing major economy this year, shrinking by 0.5%, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Prospects for next year are only a little better. Industry is struggling with energy prices and a lack of skilled labor, while Chinese automakers are challenging Germany’s Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes-Benz and have plans to expand sales across Europe.
The budget debate is ironic because Germany has the smallest long-term debt pile of any of the Group of Seven advanced democracies, with debt of 66% of gross domestic product. That compares to 102% in Britain, 121% in the U.S., 144% in Italy and 260% in Japan.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was higher in late-morning trading, helped by strength in energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also moved up.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 34.91 points at 23,736.98.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 178.05 points at 41,800.13. The S&P 500 index was up 28.38 points at 5,661.47, while the Nasdaq composite was up 133.17 points at 17,725.30.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.56 cents US compared with 73.57 cents US on Monday.
The November crude oil contract was up 68 cents at US$69.70 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up three cents at US$2.40 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$7.80 at US$2,601.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.28 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.
OTTAWA – Canada’s inflation rate fell to two per cent last month, finally hitting the Bank of Canada’s target after a tumultuous battle with skyrocketing price growth.
The annual inflation rate fell from 2.5 per cent in July to reach the lowest level since February 2021.
Statistics Canada’s consumer price index report on Tuesday attributed the slowdown in part to lower gasoline prices.
Clothing and footwear prices also decreased on a month-over-month basis, marking the first decline in the month of August since 1971 as retailers offered larger discounts to entice shoppers amid slowing demand.
The Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures of inflation, which strip out volatility in prices, also edged down in August.
The marked slowdown in price growth last month was steeper than the 2.1 per cent annual increase forecasters were expecting ahead of Tuesday’s release and will likely spark speculation of a larger interest rate cut next month from the Bank of Canada.
“Inflation remains unthreatening and the Bank of Canada should now focus on trying to stimulate the economy and halting the upward climb in the unemployment rate,” wrote CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham.
Benjamin Reitzes, managing director of Canadian rates and macro strategist at BMO, said Tuesday’s figures “tilt the scales” slightly in favour of more aggressive cuts, though he noted the Bank of Canada will have one more inflation reading before its October rate announcement.
“If we get another big downside surprise, calls for a 50 basis-point cut will only grow louder,” wrote Reitzes in a client note.
The central bank began rapidly hiking interest rates in March 2022 in response to runaway inflation, which peaked at a whopping 8.1 per cent that summer.
The central bank increased its key lending rate to five per cent and held it at that level until June 2024, when it delivered its first rate cut in four years.
A combination of recovered global supply chains and high interest rates have helped cool price growth in Canada and around the world.
Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem recently signalled that the central bank is ready to increase the size of its interest rate cuts, if inflation or the economy slow by more than expected.
Its key lending rate currently stands at 4.25 per cent.
CIBC is forecasting the central bank will cut its key rate by two percentage points between now and the middle of next year.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is also expected on Wednesday to deliver its first interest rate cut in four years.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.
FREDERICTON – New Brunswick‘s finance minister says the province recorded a surplus of $500.8 million for the fiscal year that ended in March.
Ernie Steeves says the amount — more than 10 times higher than the province’s original $40.3-million budget projection for the 2023-24 fiscal year — was largely the result of a strong economy and population growth.
The report of a big surplus comes as the province prepares for an election campaign, which will officially start on Thursday and end with a vote on Oct. 21.
Steeves says growth of the surplus was fed by revenue from the Harmonized Sales Tax and federal money, especially for health-care funding.
Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs has promised to reduce the HST by two percentage points to 13 per cent if the party is elected to govern next month.
Meanwhile, the province’s net debt, according to the audited consolidated financial statements, has dropped from $12.3 billion in 2022-23 to $11.8 billion in the most recent fiscal year.
Liberal critic René Legacy says having a stronger balance sheet does not eliminate issues in health care, housing and education.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
