ADVANTAGE INCUMBENT?— The coronavirus is laying waste to the presidential primary, postponing elections and canceling traditional campaign activities as a fearful nation hunkers down.
And then there’s the general election. The conventional wisdom is that President Donald Trump’s uneven, and at times chaotic, handling of this crisis is deeply problematic for his reelection chances. But it may not be that simple.
But Trump has time on his side, with the coronavirus spreading early in the election cycle. This week, the Republican president adopted a more somber tone, and Democrats are beginning to worry that he could mold the narrative to his benefit. A massive stimulus, including direct payments to Americans, could help him in November.
“The initial mishandling of the coronavirus by the government doesn’t mean voters will penalize Trump in November,” said Michael Ceraso, who worked for Sanders in 2016 and was Pete Buttigieg’s New Hampshire director before leaving his campaign last year. “We know we have two candidates who can pivot this generation’s largest health crisis to their policy strengths. But history tells us that an incumbent who steers us through a challenging time, a la Bush and 9/11 and Obama and the Great Recession, are rewarded with a second term.”
And that’s exactly how some in Trump’s inner circle view it. People close to the Trump campaign acknowledge to our colleague, Alex Isenstadt, that the president didn’t handle the response well in the opening weeks. But if the pandemic abates and the economy stabilizes by the fall, they see a scenario in which Trump comes out of the crisis framing it as an American comeback story and positioning himself as the leader who navigated the country through a crisis.
Adding to Democrats’ concerns is that it could be months before they mount a unified offensive against Trump. In a normal year, the presidential primary would be shutting down by now, with Joe Biden extending his delegate lead and little left on the electoral map for Bernie Sanders to look forward to.
But the coronavirus is freezing the 2020 campaign. Maryland announced today that it is delaying its April primary to June 2, becoming the fifth state to push its primary back due to the pandemic. Rallies are canceled, campaign workers — like everyone else — are confined to their homes.
What we’re watching — The next 24 hours will be critical to understanding Sanders’ intentions. Sanders lost in Florida tonight, and in Illinois. If he also loses Arizona, he will face enormous pressure to withdraw. But many of his allies are lobbying him to stay in — not to win, likely, but to amass more delegates to help advance progressive policy causes at the Democratic National Convention this summer.
Sanders has staff in place for states voting in late April, suggesting he isn’t eyeing the exits. One reason to stay: A lot can happen in two weeks — or longer, if future primaries are delayed. (An idea some, like Tom Ridge and Terry McAuliffe, aren’t keen on.)
Welcome to POLITICO Nightly: Coronavirus Special Edition, a nightly intelligence brief from our global newsroom on the impact of the coronavirus on politics and policy, the economy and global health. Reach out: [email protected] and @renurayasam.
Talking to the Experts
How can the U.S. build a nationwide system of online voting?
“You should never start building your e-government system from a voting system. It should start with low-risk services like tracking a child’s progress at school. The system of voting is made safe by the fact that it’s in the government service ecosystem. So when I enter the system, nobody knows that I am going there to vote. I might be there just to check my driver’s license. Cyberservices are not necessarily 200 percent safe, but it’s definitely safer than paper. Privacy is easier to protect in the digital environment than on paper. We pay 1 percent of our GDP on the upkeep of the government digital ecosystem, but it’s money well-spent because it’s a great equalizer.”— Estonian President Kersti Kaljulaid, speaking with POLITICO’s Ryan Heath.
In the U.S., some election experts warn that an abrupt adoption of vote-by-mail systems in states that aren’t sufficiently prepared would introduce new risks and avenues for disruption, Kim Zetter reports for POLITICO. The results, they say, could bring widespread confusion or even disenfranchise voters.
Shutdowns take hold— In the latest edition of POLITICO Dispatch, a new podcast from POLITICO’s newsroom, we explore the “shelter in place” order that went into effect for most of the San Francisco Bay Area on Monday night amid the coronavirus pandemic. Reporter Marisa Lagos gives an inside look at what it’s like in the first U.S. city to shut down. Plus, what happens if the entire nation does the same?
On The Economy
WALL STREET WATCH — Markets are looking for major action from the federal government and local officials as the virus continues to spread, POLITICO’s Chief Economic Correspondent Ben White tells us. The bigger the better. This week traders are focused on the bailout billions moving through Congress and they are largely supportive of efforts by local officials to shut down businesses to slow down the outbreak.
Wall Street doesn’t normally relish the idea of measures that lead to shuttered businesses and laid off workers. About 18 percent of households already reported someone being laid off or having hours reduced because of the coronavirus outbreak, according to an NPR/Marist poll conducted Thursday and Friday.
But traders are looking for any moves that will keep the virus contained. “If it looks like there is a flattening of the curve, it’s a hugely bullish signal,” White says.
At the moment, though, don’t expect wild market swings to abate. The market closed up today, but it could be down again Wednesday if the Senate delays a vote on the stimulus package. Partisan gridlock would be a “nightmare scenario” for traders. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said his chamber is working on a massive package at “warp speed.”
And any gains from the stimulus package could be completely wiped out if the virus continues to spread at this or faster rate.
Volatility is the order of the day.
Health Care
BRACING—Hospitals around the country are scrambling to try to ready themselves for a surge of severely ill coronavirus patients. As the U.S. death toll tops 100, they’re looking at Italy and other countries, where hospitals were overwhelmed with patients and providers had to triage care, to make sure they have enough beds, staff and equipment available to treat virus victims, POLITICO’s Amanda Eisenberg in New York and Debra Kahn in California report.
Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital and University of California-San Francisco are postponing nonessential surgeries and appointments. In New York City, it’s not a choice: Mayor Bill de Blasio ordered all hospitals, both private and public, to postpone elective surgeries and procedures by Thursday. New York is expecting a wave of critically ill patients to show up to hospital emergency rooms starting later this week
Bellevue, one of NYC Health + Hospitals’ 11 facilities, is setting up a huge tent to expand care for patients. New York-Presbyterian Queens and Montefiore Health System are working to discharge patients. Despite the drastic steps, however, most hospitals say that they are unprepared for the surge. They say the country’s slow response is boosting the number of patients who will need acute care.
“I was around at the beginning of the AIDS crisis,” said Robin Krinsky, registered nurse director at large at Mount Sinai Hospital. “It was not like this.”
By the Numbers
With the help of The COVID Tracking Project — a volunteer-run accounting of every coronavirus test conducted in America — POLITICO is monitoring how many Americans have been tested in all 50 states, Our live tracker will continue to update with the latest numbers across the country as they come in.
The Global Fight
KEEP CALM AND CAMPAIGN—The presidents of Mexico and Brazil continue to go to mass events and interact directly with voters. Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador says he’ll only stop “when the time is right.” Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro operates a split coronavirus personality: he swings between tweeting the government’s actions to limit the virus, while also campaigning and encouraging his supporters to gather, despite 12 of his entourage testing positive. The president himself underwent a second coronavirus test today and is awaiting the results. Meanwhile Australians tell pollsters they are more worried about recession than infection.
YOUR MOBILE IS WATCHING YOU —Austrian mobile operator A1 is proactively handing over the movement data of all its users to the Austrian government to help government officials and epidemiologists better understand if social distance rules are being followed. Israel will use counterterrorism technology — and previously secret databases — for real-time monitoring of cell phones.
The bipartisan appeal of cash— At a time when Washington is bitterly polarized over almost everything — including other stimulus proposals that would target beleaguered industries or low-income workers — airlifting cash into American households is one of those rare concepts that almost every politician can embrace, regardless of the deficit or growth in the federal government, writes POLITICO’s Michael Grunwald. In under 48 hours, the debate has shifted from whether to do it to how big to make it, with $1,000 now looking like a baseline, and some proposing to give some Americans as much as $4,500. “It makes sense on so many levels,” said Arshi Siddiqui, who was House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s senior policy adviser when she negotiated the Bush stimulus in January 2008. “It can get money to people quickly, especially people living paycheck to paycheck, and it has real bipartisan appeal.”
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.
Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.
A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”
Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.
“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.
In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”
“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”
Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.
Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.
Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.
“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.
“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.
“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”
Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.
“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”
NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”
“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.
Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.
She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.
Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.
Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.
The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.
Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.
“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.
“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”
The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.
In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.
“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”
In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.
“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”
Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.
Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.
“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”
In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.
In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.
“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”
Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.
“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”
The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.
“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.
“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
