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Canadian students’ math, reading scores have dropped since 2018 — but study says it’s not all COVID’s fault

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Math and reading scores of Canadian students continue to decline steeply, matching a global trend, according to a new study.

The state of global education was given a bleak appraisal in the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), which is the first study to examine the academic progress of 15-year-old students in dozens of countries during the pandemic.

Released Tuesday, it finds the average international math score fell by the equivalent of 15 points compared to 2018 scores, while reading scores fell 10 points.

The study found Canada’s overall math scores declined 15 points between 2018 and 2022. According to PISA, which defines a drop of 20 points as losing out on a fully year of learning, that means Canada’s math score dropped by an equivalent of three-quarters of a year of learning.

During that same time period, reading scores of Canadian students dropped by 13 points and science by three.

 

Grade 10 math scores are slipping in Canada, study finds

 

Results from an international math assessment of 15-year-olds in dozens of countries place Canada in the top 10. But rankings aside, the numbers paint a troubling picture of declining math skills in the country.

Only 12 per cent of Canadian students were high math achievers, scoring at Level 5 or 6. That’s fewer than some of the top Asian countries and economies: In Singapore, 41 per cent of students performed at the top level; in Hong Kong, 27 per cent; and in Japan and Korea, 23 per cent.

Louis Volante, a professor of education governance at Brock University in St. Catharines, Ont., believes the pandemic had more of a negative effect on math learning than reading and science.

“I think reading skills, for instance, can still be developed outside of a traditional face-to-face classroom,” Volante told CBC News.

“But I do think that having a student in a classroom with a teacher getting that support, either individually or in small groups, will have a more beneficial impact in terms of achievement outcomes.”

Volante added that Canada’s PISA scores may not be indicative of the whole country, as some provinces — notably Alberta, B.C., Ontario and Quebec — often score higher than the national average.

‘Some provinces declining more than others’

Anna Stokke, a math professor at the University of Winnipeg, notes that math scores in Canada have been trending in the wrong direction since 2003, “with some provinces declining more than others.”

According to the study, the provinces with the largest drop in math scores since 2018 were Newfoundland Labrador with 29, Nova Scotia with 24, New Brunswick with 23 and Manitoba with 22. Meanwhile, Alberta’s score only dropped by seven and B.C.’s just eight.

“I do think part of the problem is the philosophy of how to teach math,” Stokke told CBC News.

“First of all, we’re not spending enough time on math in schools. And second of all, kids just aren’t getting good instruction in a lot of cases. They’re not getting explicit instruction. They’re not getting enough practice. And that really needs to change.”

Pandemic’s effect ‘not so direct,’ study says

The new results point to an “unprecedented drop in performance,” the PISA report says. It raises concerns about countries like Germany, Iceland and the Netherlands, which saw drops of 25 points or more in math scores.

Across all participating countries, the average math score fell by about 15 points since the 2018 tests. Reading scores fell by 10 points. Neither subject had seen a change of more than five points previously. The bright light was in science, where scores changed little since 2018.

There’s no doubt the disruption of the pandemic was a major factor in the global setbacks. But the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) also cautions against blaming it all on COVID-19. It agrees science and reading scores were falling before the pandemic, and some countries such as Belgium, Finland, Canada and France were already trending downward in math.

High schools face exam anxiety after years of pandemic learning

 

Some high school students are anxiously preparing to write exams for the first time ever, since many schools paused the tests during the height of the pandemic. It’s reigniting a debate among educators over whether exams are truly the best way to grade students.

It also finds the link between school closures and academic setbacks was “not so direct.”

A survey of students found about half faced closures of more than three months, but it didn’t always lead to lower scores. There was “no clear difference” in performance trends between countries that had limited closures, including Iceland and Sweden, and those with longer closures, including Brazil and Ireland, according to the report.

“Many other factors impacted learning during this period, such as the quality of remote teaching and levels of support granted to struggling students,” it said.

Canada still in top 10

Singapore, long seen as an education powerhouse, had the highest scores by far in every subject. It was joined in the upper echelons by other East Asian countries, including Japan and China.

Despite the declines across the subjects, Canada did well compared to the other countries in the report, placing ninth in math, sixth in reading and seventh in science.

Albania saw the biggest decrease in math scores, with a staggering 69-point decrease, followed by Jordan with 39 points, and Iceland with 36. Iceland’s drop knocked it below the U.S. and the OECD average. Norway fell 33 points, dropping to the global average.

Most of the countries that saw math gains had relatively low performance levels to start with, including Saudi Arabia, Dominican Republic and Cambodia.

Usually given every three years, the latest test was delayed a year because of the pandemic. It was administered in 2022 to a sample of 15-year-olds in 37 countries that are OECD members, plus 44 other partner countries. The test has been conducted since 2000.

In 2022, 81 countries participated, with 23,000 Canadian high school students writing the test.

 

Canadian schools grappling with use of ChatGPT

 

As artificial intelligence like ChatGPT begins to arrive in Canadian schools, teachers consider its impact on education. Some argue it should be banned, while others suggest making it a part of learning while focusing on critical thinking and creativity.

Over the years, the test has helped drive policy decisions and curriculum changes in many jurisdictions, but has also exposed government inaction.

Volante says he hopes the results spur officials to improve the education experience overall instead of fixating on specific subjects highlighted in the study.

“I think there is a danger with these results for governments in different provinces to narrow the curriculum, focus specifically on math to the exclusion of other subject areas,” he said.

“There’s simply students that come to school and their strengths lie outside of those tested domains. We need to create an environment where those strengths are also recognized.”

 

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As plant-based milk becomes more popular, brands look for new ways to compete

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When it comes to plant-based alternatives, Canadians have never had so many options — and nowhere is that choice more abundantly clear than in the milk section of the dairy aisle.

To meet growing demand, companies are investing in new products and technology to keep up with consumer tastes and differentiate themselves from all the other players on the shelf.

“The product mix has just expanded so fast,” said Liza Amlani, co-founder of the Retail Strategy Group.

She said younger generations in particular are driving growth in the plant-based market as they are consuming less dairy and meat.

Commercial sales of dairy milk have been weakening for years, according to research firm Mintel, likely in part because of the rise of plant-based alternatives — even though many Canadians still drink dairy.

The No. 1 reason people opt for plant-based milk is because they see it as healthier than dairy, said Joel Gregoire, Mintel’s associate director for food and drink.

“Plant-based milk, the one thing about it — it’s not new. It’s been around for quite some time. It’s pretty established,” said Gregoire.

Because of that, it serves as an “entry point” for many consumers interested in plant-based alternatives to animal products, he said.

Plant-based milk consumption is expected to continue growing in the coming years, according to Mintel research, with more options available than ever and more consumers opting for a diet that includes both dairy and non-dairy milk.

A 2023 report by Ernst & Young for Protein Industries Canada projected that the plant-based dairy market will reach US$51.3 billion in 2035, at a compound annual growth rate of 9.5 per cent.

Because of this growth opportunity, even well-established dairy or plant-based companies are stepping up their game.

It’s been more than three decades since Saint-Hyacinthe, Que.-based Natura first launched a line of soy beverages. Over the years, the company has rolled out new products to meet rising demand, and earlier this year launched a line of oat beverages that it says are the only ones with a stamp of approval from Celiac Canada.

Competition is tough, said owner and founder Nick Feldman — especially from large American brands, which have the money to ensure their products hit shelves across the country.

Natura has kept growing, though, with a focus on using organic ingredients and localized production from raw materials.

“We’re maybe not appealing to the mass market, but we’re appealing to the natural consumer, to the organic consumer,” Feldman said.

Amlani said brands are increasingly advertising the simplicity of their ingredient lists. She’s also noticing more companies offering different kinds of products, such as coffee creamers.

Companies are also looking to stand out through eye-catching packaging and marketing, added Amlani, and by competing on price.

Besides all the companies competing for shelf space, there are many different kinds of plant-based milk consumers can choose from, such as almond, soy, oat, rice, hazelnut, macadamia, pea, coconut and hemp.

However, one alternative in particular has enjoyed a recent, rapid ascendance in popularity.

“I would say oat is the big up-and-coming product,” said Feldman.

Mintel’s report found the share of Canadians who say they buy oat milk has quadrupled between 2019 and 2023 (though almond is still the most popular).

“There seems to be a very nice marriage of coffee and oat milk,” said Feldman. “The flavour combination is excellent, better than any other non-dairy alternative.”

The beverage’s surge in popularity in cafés is a big part of why it’s ascending so quickly, said Gregoire — its texture and ability to froth makes it a good alternative for lattes and cappuccinos.

It’s also a good example of companies making a strong “use case” for yet another new entrant in a competitive market, he said.

Amid the long-standing brands and new entrants, there’s another — perhaps unexpected — group of players that has been increasingly investing in plant-based milk alternatives: dairy companies.

For example, Danone has owned the Silk and So Delicious brands since an acquisition in 2014, and long-standing U.S. dairy company HP Hood LLC launched Planet Oat in 2018.

Lactalis Canada also recently converted its facility in Sudbury, Ont., to manufacture its new plant-based Enjoy! brand, with beverages made from oats, almonds and hazelnuts.

“As an organization, we obviously follow consumer trends, and have seen the amount of interest in plant-based products, particularly fluid beverages,” said Mark Taylor, president and CEO of Lactalis Canada, whose parent company Lactalis is the largest dairy products company in the world.

The facility was a milk processing plant for six decades, until Lactalis Canada began renovating it in 2022. It now manufactures not only the new brand, but also the company’s existing Sensational Soy brand, and is the company’s first dedicated plant-based facility.

“We’re predominantly a dairy company, and we’ll always predominantly be a dairy company, but we see these products as complementary,” said Taylor.

It makes sense that major dairy companies want to get in on plant-based milk, said Gregoire. The dairy business is large — a “cash cow,” if you will — but not really growing, while plant-based products are seeing a boom.

“If I’m looking for avenues of growth, I don’t want to be left behind,” he said.

Gregoire said there’s a potential for consumers to get confused with so many options, which is why it’s so important for brands to find a way to differentiate themselves, whether it’s with taste, health, or how well the drink froths for a latte.

Competition in a more crowded market is challenging, but Taylor believes it results in better products for consumers.

“It keeps you sharp, and it forces you to be really good at what you’re doing. It drives innovation,” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2024.



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Inflation expected to ease to 2.1%, lowest level since March 2021: economists

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Economists anticipate that Canada’s annual inflation rate in August fell to its lowest level since March 2021.

Ahead of Statistics Canada’s consumer price index set to be released on Tuesday, economists polled by Reuters are expecting the report to show prices rose 2.1 per cent from a year ago, down from a 2.5 per cent annual gain in July. The forecasters also anticipate inflation remained flat on a month-over-month basis.

“Unless there’s something lurking out there that we’re not aware of, it looks like we’re headed for a pretty favourable reading,” said BMO chief economist Douglas Porter.

RBC economists Nathan Janzen and Claire Fan said in a report last week that those expectations would put the headline inflation rate just a hair over the Bank of Canada’s two per cent inflation target.

“Most of that August slowing is expected from a pullback in gasoline prices, but the (Bank of Canada’s) preferred core CPI measures are also expected to trend lower, with the closely-watched three-month annualized growth rate easing from an average of 2.6 per cent in July,” the RBC economists said.

The continued progress on slowing inflation comes as the central bank has signalled a willingness to speed up cuts to its key lending rate if circumstances warrant.

The Bank of Canada reduced its key lending rate by a quarter-percentage point earlier this month — the third consecutive cut — to 4.25 per cent. Governor Tiff Macklem said the decision was motivated by falling inflation, noting if the CPI moving forward “was significantly weaker than we expected … it could be appropriate to take a bigger step, something bigger than 25 basis points.”

On the other hand, Macklem said if inflation is stronger than expected, the bank could slow the pace of rate cuts.

Inflation has remained below three per cent since January and fears of price growth reaccelerating have diminished as the economy has weakened.

Porter said despite progress on the inflation rate, it’s still “not in a place where it’s a compelling argument that the bank has to go even faster.”

He forecasts the central bank will cut its key lending rate by a quarter-percentage point at every meeting until July 2025, bringing it down to 2.5 per cent by that time. That prediction also comes after data released last week that showed Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 6.6 per cent in August from 6.4 per cent in July.

However, Porter said it’s possible the bank could speed up its rate cutting cycle if inflation continues easing.

“If we’re going to be wrong, it’s that we’re going to get to 2.5 per cent even more quickly and possibly lower than that,” said Porter.

“There is a case to be made that if the economy were to weaken further, there’s little reason for the bank to keep rates in what they consider to be the neutral zone. They could go below that.”

Shelter costs have remained the main driver of inflation as Canadians face high rents and mortgage payments. Porter noted that when factoring out housing costs, inflation in both Canada and U.S. is hovering slightly above one per cent.

“So really, the only thing keeping Canadian inflation above two per cent is shelter and it does look like shelter costs are probably going to fade,” he said.

“It looks as if rents are starting to moderate. They’re not necessarily falling, but not rising as quickly. And of course with interest rates coming down, ultimately the big kahuna here, mortgage interest costs, will recede as well.”

With the U.S. Federal Reserve set to meet on Wednesday, Janzen and Fan said they expect the American central bank to announce its first rate cut in four years.

“Gradual but persistent labour market softening and slowing inflation make it clear that current high interest rates are no longer needed,” they wrote.

“We think governor (Jerome) Powell’s comments will likely stay on the cautious side — hinting at future rate cuts without committing to a pre-determined path to allow for more flexibility in future decisions.”

—With files from Nojoud Al Mallees in Ottawa

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Air Canada, pilots reach tentative deal, averting work stoppage

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MONTREAL – Passengers with plans to fly on Canada’s largest airline can breathe a sigh of relief after Air Canada said Sunday it has reached a tentative agreement with the union representing more than 5,200 of its pilots.

The news of a preliminary deal with the Air Line Pilots Association came shortly after midnight on Sunday when the airline issued a press release just days ahead of a potential work stoppage for Air Canada and Air Canada Rouge.

The tentative deal averts a strike or lockout that could have begun on Wednesday, with flight cancellations expected before then.

“The new agreement recognizes the contributions and professionalism of Air Canada’s pilot group, while providing a framework for the future growth of the airline,” the carrier said in the statement.

It said Air Canada and Air Canada Rouge will continue to operate as normal while union members vote on the tentative four-year contract.

It said the terms of the new deal will remain confidential pending a ratification vote by the membership, expected to be completed over the next month, and approval by Air Canada’s board of directors.

ALPA issued a statement after midnight Sunday, saying if ratified, the tentative agreement will generate an approximate additional $1.9 billion of value for Air Canada pilots over the course of the agreement.

First Officer Charlene Hudy, chair of the Air Canada ALPA MEC, says in a Sunday statement, “The consistent engagement and unified determination of our pilots have been the catalyst for achieving this contract.” She added that progress was made on several key issues including compensation, retirement, and work rules.

The airline said customers who changed flights originally scheduled from between Sunday and Sept. 23 under its labour disruption plan can change their booking back to their original flight in the same cabin at no cost, providing there is space available.

In the lead-up to Sunday’s deadline to issue notice of a stoppage, the two sides said they remained far apart on the issue of pay, which was central in the negotiations that had stretched for more than a year.

The pilots’ union argued Air Canada continues to post record profits while expecting pilots to accept below-market compensation. It had also said about a quarter of pilots report taking on second jobs, with about 80 per cent of those doing so out of necessity.

The airline had said it has offered salary increases of more than 30 per cent over four years, plus improvements to benefits, and said the union was being inflexible with “unreasonable wage demands.”

Air Canada and numerous business groups had called on the government to intervene in the matter, including the Canadian Federation of Independent Business and the Canadian and U.S. Chambers of Commerce.

“The Government of Canada must take swift action to avoid another labour disruption that negatively impacts cross-border travel and trade, a damaging outcome for both people and businesses,” said the chambers and the Business Council of Canada in a statement Friday.

The union had called for the opposite approach, with Association President Capt. Tim Perry issuing a Friday statement asking Ottawa to respect workers’ collective rights and refrain from getting involved in the bargaining process. He said the government intervention violates the constitutional rights and freedoms of Canadians.

For his part, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had said it’s up to the two sides to hash out a deal.

Trudeau said Friday the government isn’t just going to step in and fix the issue, something it did promptly after both of Canada’s major railways saw lockouts in August and during a strike by WestJet mechanics on the Canada Day long weekend.

He said the government respects the right to strike and would only intervene if it became clear no negotiated agreement was possible.

Air Canada had already begun preparing for a possible shutdown, saying its cargo service had stopped accepting items such as perishables and indicating a wind-down plan for passenger flights would take effect if a notice of a strike or lockout was issued.

The tentative deal averts travel disruptions for the 670 daily flights on average operated by Air Canada and Air Canada Rouge, and the travel of more than 110,000 passengers.

This report from The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:AC)



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