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China’s Bank System Is Collapsing, Set for Huge Real Estate Losses: CIO

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China’s banking system is collapsing, and the real estate crisis in the country could end up wiping out $4 trillion from its financial system, according to veteran investor Kyle Bass.

In an interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin on CNBC on Monday , the Hayman Capital Management CIO pointed to China’s property sector, which has been reeling in recent years as debts from major property owners sour and some firms default on their bonds. The real estate crisis has left enough empty homes in China to house 3 billion people, a former top Chinese official said, and the flood of unused supply will generation huge financial losses in the real estate sector.

Those losses are bound to have a big impact on China’s banking system, which is highly-levered, Bass said. Meanwhile, China’s local real estate market is mostly financed through local government financing vehicles, a market worth around $13 trillion, though much of that debt financing now in default, Bass said.

That suggests China’s banking losses could dwarf those seen in the US during the Great Financial Crisis, when US banks lost around $700 billion.

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“”We think that [China’s] real estate losses are $4 trillion at least. And the local government financing vehicle market, we don’t even know where the bottom to that market is,” Bass said. “To have a properly functioning capital market, you have to understand the banking system, and their banking system is in freefall right now.”

Experts have warned that China’s property sector could be troubled for a long time. Developers in the country embarked on a massive building spree in the last decade—much of it financed with debt—and that supply now has vastly surpassed the demand for housing. Real estate woes could take up to a decade to solve, one economist estimated, as China is facing a wide array of economic headwinds that will stunt its growth.

 

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Mortgage rule changes will help spark demand, but supply is ‘core’ issue: economist

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TORONTO – One expert predicts Ottawa‘s changes to mortgage rules will help spur demand among potential homebuyers but says policies aimed at driving new supply are needed to address the “core issues” facing the market.

The federal government’s changes, set to come into force mid-December, include a higher price cap for insured mortgages to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

CIBC Capital Markets deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal calls it a “significant” move likely to accelerate the recovery of the housing market, a process already underway as interest rates have begun to fall.

However, he says in a note that policymakers should aim to “prevent that from becoming too much of a good thing” through policies geared toward the supply side.

Tal says the main issue is the lack of supply available to respond to Canada’s rapidly increasing population, particularly in major cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17,2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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National housing market in ‘holding pattern’ as buyers patient for lower rates: CREA

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OTTAWA – The Canadian Real Estate Association says the number of homes sold in August fell compared with a year ago as the market remained largely stuck in a holding pattern despite borrowing costs beginning to come down.

The association says the number of homes sold in August fell 2.1 per cent compared with the same month last year.

On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, national home sales edged up 1.3 per cent from July.

CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart says that with forecasts of lower interest rates throughout the rest of this year and into 2025, “it makes sense that prospective buyers might continue to hold off for improved affordability, especially since prices are still well behaved in most of the country.”

The national average sale price for August amounted to $649,100, a 0.1 per cent increase compared with a year earlier.

The number of newly listed properties was up 1.1 per cent month-over-month.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Two Quebec real estate brokers suspended for using fake bids to drive up prices

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MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.

Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.

She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.

The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.

One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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