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Opinion: Poloz's firm stand on interest rate cuts shows the Bank of Canada isn't toeing the Fed's line – The Globe and Mail

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Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz (right) and Finance Minister Bill Morneau (left) speak during a news conference on Parliament Hill, on March 18, 2020 in Ottawa.

DAVE CHAN/AFP/Getty Images

As Stephen Poloz sat at a podium on Wednesday with Finance Minister Bill Morneau telling reporters about the massive support package that Ottawa unfurled to aid a distressed Canadian economy, perhaps the biggest surprise of the entire spectacle is something the Bank of Canada’s Governor didn’t say.

Mr. Poloz talked about the range of pretty arcane financial market measures that the central bank has put into action in the past few days to keep “credit channels” well-greased and keep bank lending flowing to increasingly needy businesses and consumers. “Back plumbing,” he called it – the necessary if unglamorous mechanics of keeping the financial system from gumming up while the government wrestles with an economic aid package in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Yet the Governor conspicuously didn’t drop the shoe that the markets very much expected him to drop – the one he dropped the last time he gave a joint news conference with Mr. Morneau, just four days earlier. He did not announce another interest-rate cut. On a day when the federal government unleashed its big guns, Mr. Poloz left his biggest weapon in the holster.

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Okay, so it wasn’t entirely a surprise by the time the news conference began – which itself was surprising. The bank took the extraordinary step of forewarning reporters via e-mail that Mr. Poloz wouldn’t announce a rate cut or any other new measures at the news conference.

Now, the central bank never says what it’s planning to do, or not do, in advance. The fact it felt compelled to do so on Wednesday just speaks to what deeply weird times we are in. At this point, we’re actually starting to get used to the Bank of Canada not doing what we expect when we expect it.

Yet ever since the U.S. Federal Reserve’s massive move last Sunday (Sunday!) that sliced a full percentage point off its key rate and took it down to near-zero, markets have fully expected the Bank of Canada to follow the Fed’s lead and make another cut to its own rate – at least to 0.25 per cent from the current 0.75 per cent. They had assumed Mr. Poloz would be in somewhat of a hurry to do so. It’s now pretty clear that he’s not.

Mr. Poloz signalled on Wednesday that the most important role for the Bank of Canada right now isn’t to stimulate economic activity through still-lower rates – which, frankly, would have minimal effect when big swaths of the economy are effectively shut down. And, even more important, wouldn’t work anyway if the cuts couldn’t be properly transmitted through a misfiring financial system, which has become a legitimate concern.

Rather, the bank’s priority now is to use its might to maintain stability in the financial system, and to keep the credit taps as wide open as possible so that businesses and consumers have access to the funds that will see them through this mess.

Not everyone agrees. Many economists feel that, given the seriousness of the situation, the central bank should cut rates as deeply as it can as soon as it can. Rate cuts take months to work their way through an economy, they argue; the longer you wait, the further you fall behind.

But one statement from Mr. Poloz on Wednesday explains why he’s not subscribing to that argument:

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“We know that this is a temporary thing. We don’t know how long or how big, but it’s temporary.”

If you’re a central bank boss who believes that the shock your economy is experiencing will pass before those rates have a chance to truly sink in, slashing rates further ends up becoming more for show than for impact. Investing your energies in financial system stability, on the other hand, can have a much more immediate impact to address the profound but, hopefully, relatively short-lived fallout from the COVID-19 shock.

Mr. Poloz also talked about the need to be “nimble and adaptable” – which may provide a second clue to his preference against following the Fed’s lead on rates.

Through much of his 6½ years as head of the Bank of Canada, Mr. Poloz has stressed the independence of Canadian interest-rate policy from that of other central banks, especially the Fed. He has always seen a separate path for his policy as an important tool in applying rates to help guide the Canadian economy.

The last thing he would want, especially at a time when policy flexibility is paramount, is for the markets to start believing that the Bank of Canada would follow a rate path that the Fed had laid out for it. An immediate cut in the days after the Fed move would have sent the wrong signal – one that the Bank of Canada would have a very hard time undoing in the coming weeks and months.

But by passing over the obvious opportunity to cut on Wednesday, Mr. Poloz has effectively de-linked Canadian rate policy from the Fed’s rate timetable in the minds of the markets. In doing so, he may be buying himself some crucial room to manoeuvre when he most needs it.

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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