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Poilievre breathes new life into Trudeau’s chances

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He’s not dead yet, folks. After months of increasingly dire public opinion polls, Justin Trudeau and his Liberal Party of Canada are finally showing a political pulse. After Pierre Poilievre’s lousy week in mid-November, highlighted by a conspicuously obnoxious confrontation with a journalist and his party’s nonsensical opposition to a Ukraine-Canada free trade deal, I wrote that it might eventually be seen as a turning point.

Well, as I like to say in situations like this: Ahem.

This new Abacus Data poll shows Liberal support snapping back and Poilievre’s negatives on the rise. “It appears that the Conservatives and Pierre Poilievre have made themselves less acceptable to these past Liberal supporters over the past few weeks and may have even alienated a small portion of their own past supporters, pushing most back into the Liberal fold,” Abacus Data CEO David Coletto said on Twitter.

Poilievre’s recent shenanigans in the House of Commons, which included his party voting repeatedly against the Canada-Ukraine Free Trade Agreement, aren’t likely to help his numbers here. Neither will recent news of the federal government’s deal with Google on Bill C-18, or the growing international trail of evidence behind the Indian government’s involvement in extrajudicial killings in Canada and illegitimate involvement in our democracy. One by one, the issues that Poilievre had been stacking up against the Liberal government are starting to backfire.

Even housing, which has looked like Poilievre’s ace in the hole with young people for a while now, is starting to turn in favour of the government. No, Housing Minister Sean Fraser won’t have single-handedly made homes affordable for young people by 2025, but it will be increasingly difficult to ignore progress being made on that front. For example, as housing expert Mike Moffatt noted, his recent decision to reintroduce the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s catalogue of housing designs “has the potential to be massively beneficial.”

Fraser may not be moving mountains yet with his seemingly endless schedule of funding announcements and regulatory changes, but he’s definitely moving the needle. How far he can get it to budge, and how clearly young Canadians see that, will weigh heavily on the next election’s outcome.

So, too, of course, will inflation. With each new batch of monthly data, it becomes increasingly clear the worst of the inflationary crisis is behind us and central banks around the world will start cutting interest rates as soon as early next year. The president of the New York Federal Reserve, for example, thinks the United States will hit its two per cent inflation target by 2025 — and as the United States goes, so does Canada. By the time we’re in a federal election, the affordability issues top of mind for so many Canadians may have eased significantly as interest rates for mortgages and lines of credit drop precipitously.

What might that leave as ground over which the election will be fought? Climate, for one, especially if the election is held at the tail end of another smoky summer. Trust might be another battleground, and Poilievre is vulnerable here, given his previous dalliances with far-right influencers and personalities who more mainstream Canadians find hard to stomach. And, of course, there’s always the possibility of another Trump administration, which would upend the political table in ways we still can’t quite (or don’t want to) fathom.

None of this is to suggest that a Liberal comeback is a safe bet, much less a sure thing. But there are historical parallels that show it’s far from impossible. In both 2007 and 2011, Dalton McGuinty’s Ontario Liberals were well behind the opposition PCs in pre-election polls and still won both handily. In 2013, the BC Liberal Party’s Christy Clark was down by 15 points and ended up winning by four. And, of course, Trudeau’s father was actually defeated in an election in 1979 before coming back the following year and winning a crushing majority. Campaigns do matter, and more so in Canada than it might seem.

The polls are starting to show a meaningful bounce in Liberal support — one that could portend a much better year for Justin Trudeau’s government in 2024 than it had in 2023.

In the months leading up to the next election, expect the Trudeau Liberals to channel legendary strategist Keith Davey’s famous line that helped pull both his dad and McGuinty out of the political ditch. “Don’t compare me to the almighty,” it advises. “Compare me to the alternative.”

So long as that alternative is a guy who takes cryptocurrency more seriously than climate change and talks about foreign policy like he’s Neville Chamberlain, the Trudeau Liberals will have a fighting chance.

 

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Opinions on what Tagovailoa should do next vary after his 3rd concussion since joining Dolphins

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MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. (AP) — Nick Saban has a message for Tua Tagovailoa: Listen to experts, then decide what happens next.

Antonio Pierce had another message: It’s time to retire.

Saban, Pierce and countless others within the game were speaking out Friday about Tagovailoa, the Miami Dolphins quarterback who is now dealing with the third confirmed concussion of his NFL career — all coming within the last 24 months. He was hurt in the third quarter of the Dolphins’ 31-10 loss to the Buffalo Bills on Thursday night, leaving the game after a scary and all-too-familiar on-field scene.

“This has to be a medical decision,” Saban said on ESPN, where the now-retired coach works as an analyst. “I mean, you have to let medical people who understand the circumstances around these injuries, these concussions — and when you have multiple concussions, that’s not a good sign.

“I think Tua and his family and everyone else should listen to all the medical evidence to make sure you’re not compromising your future health-wise by continuing to play football.”

That process — gathering the medical facts — was getting underway in earnest on Friday, when Tagovailoa was set to be further evaluated at the team’s facility. He was diagnosed with a concussion within minutes of sustaining the injury on Thursday and there is no timetable for his return.

“I’ll be honest: I’d just tell him to retire,” Pierce, the coach of the Las Vegas Raiders, said Friday. “It’s not worth it. It’s not worth it to play the game. I haven’t witnessed anything like I’ve seen that’s happened to him three times. Scary. You could see right away, the players’ faces on the field, you could see the sense of urgency from everybody to get Tua help. He’s going to live longer than he’s going to play football. Take care of your family.”

Concern — and opinions — have poured in from all across the football world ever since Tagovailoa got hurt. It is not a surprising topic — the questions of “should he? or shouldn’t he?” continue to play — nor is this the first time they have been asked. Tagovailoa himself said in April 2023 that he and his family weighed their options after he was diagnosed twice with concussions in the 2022 season.

But Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel said it’s not his place, nor is it the time, to have discussions about whether Tagovailoa should play again.

“Those types of conversations, when you’re talking about somebody’s career, it probably is only fair that their career should be decided by them,” McDaniel said.

The Dolphins said Friday that they will bring in another quarterback, and for now are entrusting the starting job to Skylar Thompson. McDaniel said the team will not rush to any other judgments, that the only opinions that truly matter right now come from two sides — Tagovailoa and his family, and the medical experts who will monitor his recovery.

“The thing about it is everybody wants to play, and they love this game so much, and they give so much to it that when things like this happen, reality kind of hits a little bit,” Jacksonville coach Doug Pedersen said Friday. “It just shows the human nature, or the human side of our sport.”

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AP Sports Writer Mark Long in Jacksonville, Florida, contributed to this report.

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Canada’s Sarah Mitton captures shot put gold at Diamond League in Brussels

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BRUSSELS – Canadian shot putter Sarah Mitton rebounded from a disappointing performance at the Paris Olympics by capturing Diamond League gold on Friday.

Mitton, of Brooklyn, N.S., won the competition, the final Diamond League event of the season, with a heave of 20.25 metres on her third throw.

Chase Jackson of the U.S. placed second with a throw of 19.90, while German’s Yemisi Ogunleye, the Olympic gold medallist, claimed bronze with a toss of 19.72.

Mitton, the runner-up of last year’s world championship, failed to qualify for the top eight in Paris.

Edmonton runner Marco Arop, who won silver for Canada in the men’s 800 metres at the Paris Games, was scheduled to race in the 800 on Saturday.

Olympic bronze-medallist Alysha Newman, of London, Ont., also competes Saturday in the women’s pole vault.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

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Michigan’s Greg Harden, who advised Tom Brady, Michael Phelps and more, dies at 75

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ANN ARBOR, Mich. (AP) — Greg Harden, who counseled countless people at the University of Michigan from Tom Brady to Michael Phelps, and Desmond Howard to J.J. McCarthy, has died. He was 75.

Michigan athletics spokesman Dave Ablauf said the family informed the athletic department that Harden died Thursday due to complications from surgery.

The late Bo Schembechler, a College Football Hall of Fame coach, hired Harden in 1986 as a staff consultant and student-athlete personal development program counselor.

“He meant the world to me and I could never have had the success I had without the time, energy, love and support he had given me,” said Brady, a former Michigan quarterback who went on to win seven Super Bowls in a 22-year career.

Howard, who won the Hesiman Trophy in 1991, was part of the first wave of Wolverines to count Harden as a confidant, mentor and friend.

“Greg brought wisdom, joy and his calming nature to every encounter,” Howard said. “His presence will be missed by all of us.

“Although my family and I are heartbroken, we hold on to the lessons, guidance and memories that will forever be Greg’s legacy. We are blessed beyond measure to have had him in our lives.”

Harden, who was from Detroit, earned undergraduate and master’s degrees at Michigan.

Phelps lived and trained in Ann Arbor, Michigan, after emerging as swimming star at the 2004 Athens Olympics, and worked on his mental health with Harden.

Harden retired from his role as director of counseling for Michigan’s athletic department in 2020. He still continued to work, advising student-athletes at Michigan along with the Toronto Maple Leafs as the NHL team’s peak performance coach.

He published his first book, “Stay Sane in an Insane World: How to Control the Controllables and Thrive,” last year.

Michigan athletics announced Harden’s death, and shared statements from some of the many people who knew him.

McCarthy, a Minnesota Vikings rookie quarterback, sent the school his thoughts in the form of a letter to Harden.

“You gave me the courage and belief as we fought hand and hand against the demons that I’ve spent my entire life fighting,” McCarthy wrote. “You have inspired me by your ability to unconditionally love everyone and everything.”

While many famous football players worked with Harden, he also was a trusted adviser for women and men in all sports and walks of life, including broadcaster Michelle McMahon, who played volleyball at Michigan.

“He poured his heart into thousands of students, athletes, and celebrities alike without any expectation of gaining anything in return,” McMahon said. “He dedicated his entire life to making a difference and investing in the growth of the young impressionable minds that were lucky enough to meet him.

“His captivating presence and charisma captured the rooms he walked in. Greg’s gift to the world was his unwavering ability to help people see themselves fully, in full acceptance of their flaws and their gifts. His relentless approach made it impossible for his mentees to give up on themselves.”

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Follow Larry Lage at https://twitter.com/larrylage

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