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How long can Canadians expect to be social distancing?

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For weeks, health officials across the country have been urging Canadians to practise social distancing and avoid public gatherings in an attempt to limit the spread of the novel coronavirus.

The disease caused by the virus — COVID-19 — has infected more than 201,000 people worldwide and killed over 8,000.

In Canada, as of 9:30 a.m. on Wednesday, 569 people had been infected with COVID-19 and eight people had died.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Tuesday echoed the advice of health authorities, urging Canadians to practise social distancing, saying the window to control the spread of the disease was closing.

“As much as possible, stay home,” he said. “Don’t go out unless you absolutely have to.”

But how long can Canadians expect to be practising social distancing and is it effective?

Here’s what experts say.

 

How long will Canadians need to practise social distancing?

Dr. Jason Kindrachuk, an assistant professor and Canada Research Chair in emerging viruses at the University of Manitoba, said we can expect this to go on until we see a decrease in the number of COVID-19 cases.

“What we need to see is that new cases are decreasing over time, but we also want to be conscious that loosening of the social distancing recommendations and restrictions too quickly could result in a resurgence of transmission,” he wrote in an email to Global News.

He said recent models have predicted long periods of time for this outbreak, some greater than 12 months.

“However, there have been arguments that these models don’t take into account additional factors that are implemented to curb transmission,” he wrote.

He said ultimately, there is no “definitive timeline” as the situation will “continue to be dynamic and based on overall trends that can’t be defined within very short periods of time.”

 

Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease specialist based out of Toronto General Hospital, told Global News the length of time we spend social distancing is “completely dependent on us.”

 

“It’s completely dependent on how we implement these suggestions,” Bogoch said. “Are we going to actually do what it takes to practise these social distancing measures and truly flatten the curve and mitigate the spread of this infection in the country?

He said if Canadians do practise the social distancing measures, we may start to see the benefits and may be able to “slowly and carefully take our foot off the gas pedal in the coming months.”

“I would say plural, in the coming two-ish or more months,” he said. “Depending on how well we do.”

What’s more, Kindrachuk said the sooner Canadians heed the advice of health authorities and practise social distancing, the sooner it will be over.

“This virus relies on people transmitting it between each other,” he said. “In the absence of vaccines or therapeutics, our greatest defence against this virus is to take away the ability for it to be spread from person to person. This is easier to do when there are fewer overall cases in the community.”

Has it worked elsewhere?

Bogoch said both China and South Korea have experienced “tremendous benefits” from their social distancing policies.

Across China, more than 50 million people were placed under strict quarantine as the virus spread. Travel into and out of cities was cut, and schools and businesses were shuttered as health officials scrambled to contain the disease.

South Korea implemented similar measures in an effort to limit the virus’s spread.

“They’re starting to relax some of their social distancing policies now,” Bogoch said. “Life is slowly returning back to normal.”

He said in both cases, the countries implemented measures for around two and a half months.

“So if we do well, we could be in the same boat,” he said.

Kindrachuk, too, said we have already seen “indications of success” of social distancing in Hong Kong, South Korea and Singapore.

“While these are not the only measures that were employed, they appeared to have a central role in curbing transmission,” he said. “China was able to limit the spread as well through massive quarantine procedures in Hubei province as well.”

How dire is the situation in Canada?

On Sunday, Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer said the window for Canada to control the spread of the virus and keep it at a level that Canada’s health-care system can manage is closing.

But how much time do we have?

Kindrachuk said that is something “we don’t know.”

 

“Think of this as a hurricane warning without any accompanying radar to give us a timeline of when it will hit,” he said. “We know that the virus will spread across Canada. We don’t know exactly how cases will continue to increase across the country, though we know that they will, given that the virus is here.”

However, he said we do have the opportunity to try and change the total timeline for transmission by practising social distancing, testing and tracing the contacts of those who are infected.

Dr. Craig Janes, a professor at the University of Waterloo School of Public Health and Health Systems, said the situation in Canada is “dire.”

This is one of the complex things socially about the epidemic is that I think for many people we say, ‘Wait a minute, we don’t see many cases. It just doesn’t seem that serious,’” he said. “But based on the information we have from China, from Italy and that sort of thing, it is dire. And we need to be doing all this now.”

 

 

He said what we do now to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 will have an “enormous impact” on reducing the number of people who die, and on the health-care system’s ability to treat those who are sick.

Bogoch said the “ball is in our court” when it comes to limiting the spread of the virus.

“The messaging is clear, there should be no ambiguity on what we should and shouldn’t be doing now as individuals, businesses and also as the government,” he said. “Everyone has a job to do.”

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STD epidemic slows as new syphilis and gonorrhea cases fall in US

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NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. syphilis epidemic slowed dramatically last year, gonorrhea cases fell and chlamydia cases remained below prepandemic levels, according to federal data released Tuesday.

The numbers represented some good news about sexually transmitted diseases, which experienced some alarming increases in past years due to declining condom use, inadequate sex education, and reduced testing and treatment when the COVID-19 pandemic hit.

Last year, cases of the most infectious stages of syphilis fell 10% from the year before — the first substantial decline in more than two decades. Gonorrhea cases dropped 7%, marking a second straight year of decline and bringing the number below what it was in 2019.

“I’m encouraged, and it’s been a long time since I felt that way” about the nation’s epidemic of sexually transmitted infections, said the CDC’s Dr. Jonathan Mermin. “Something is working.”

More than 2.4 million cases of syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia were diagnosed and reported last year — 1.6 million cases of chlamydia, 600,000 of gonorrhea, and more than 209,000 of syphilis.

Syphilis is a particular concern. For centuries, it was a common but feared infection that could deform the body and end in death. New cases plummeted in the U.S. starting in the 1940s when infection-fighting antibiotics became widely available, and they trended down for a half century after that. By 2002, however, cases began rising again, with men who have sex with other men being disproportionately affected.

The new report found cases of syphilis in their early, most infectious stages dropped 13% among gay and bisexual men. It was the first such drop since the agency began reporting data for that group in the mid-2000s.

However, there was a 12% increase in the rate of cases of unknown- or later-stage syphilis — a reflection of people infected years ago.

Cases of syphilis in newborns, passed on from infected mothers, also rose. There were nearly 4,000 cases, including 279 stillbirths and infant deaths.

“This means pregnant women are not being tested often enough,” said Dr. Jeffrey Klausner, a professor of medicine at the University of Southern California.

What caused some of the STD trends to improve? Several experts say one contributor is the growing use of an antibiotic as a “morning-after pill.” Studies have shown that taking doxycycline within 72 hours of unprotected sex cuts the risk of developing syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia.

In June, the CDC started recommending doxycycline as a morning-after pill, specifically for gay and bisexual men and transgender women who recently had an STD diagnosis. But health departments and organizations in some cities had been giving the pills to people for a couple years.

Some experts believe that the 2022 mpox outbreak — which mainly hit gay and bisexual men — may have had a lingering effect on sexual behavior in 2023, or at least on people’s willingness to get tested when strange sores appeared.

Another factor may have been an increase in the number of health workers testing people for infections, doing contact tracing and connecting people to treatment. Congress gave $1.2 billion to expand the workforce over five years, including $600 million to states, cities and territories that get STD prevention funding from CDC.

Last year had the “most activity with that funding throughout the U.S.,” said David Harvey, executive director of the National Coalition of STD Directors.

However, Congress ended the funds early as a part of last year’s debt ceiling deal, cutting off $400 million. Some people already have lost their jobs, said a spokeswoman for Harvey’s organization.

Still, Harvey said he had reasons for optimism, including the growing use of doxycycline and a push for at-home STD test kits.

Also, there are reasons to think the next presidential administration could get behind STD prevention. In 2019, then-President Donald Trump announced a campaign to “eliminate” the U.S. HIV epidemic by 2030. (Federal health officials later clarified that the actual goal was a huge reduction in new infections — fewer than 3,000 a year.)

There were nearly 32,000 new HIV infections in 2022, the CDC estimates. But a boost in public health funding for HIV could also also help bring down other sexually transmitted infections, experts said.

“When the government puts in resources, puts in money, we see declines in STDs,” Klausner said.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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World’s largest active volcano Mauna Loa showed telltale warning signs before erupting in 2022

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Scientists can’t know precisely when a volcano is about to erupt, but they can sometimes pick up telltale signs.

That happened two years ago with the world’s largest active volcano. About two months before Mauna Loa spewed rivers of glowing orange molten lava, geologists detected small earthquakes nearby and other signs, and they warned residents on Hawaii‘s Big Island.

Now a study of the volcano’s lava confirms their timeline for when the molten rock below was on the move.

“Volcanoes are tricky because we don’t get to watch directly what’s happening inside – we have to look for other signs,” said Erik Klemetti Gonzalez, a volcano expert at Denison University, who was not involved in the study.

Upswelling ground and increased earthquake activity near the volcano resulted from magma rising from lower levels of Earth’s crust to fill chambers beneath the volcano, said Kendra Lynn, a research geologist at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory and co-author of a new study in Nature Communications.

When pressure was high enough, the magma broke through brittle surface rock and became lava – and the eruption began in late November 2022. Later, researchers collected samples of volcanic rock for analysis.

The chemical makeup of certain crystals within the lava indicated that around 70 days before the eruption, large quantities of molten rock had moved from around 1.9 miles (3 kilometers) to 3 miles (5 kilometers) under the summit to a mile (2 kilometers) or less beneath, the study found. This matched the timeline the geologists had observed with other signs.

The last time Mauna Loa erupted was in 1984. Most of the U.S. volcanoes that scientists consider to be active are found in Hawaii, Alaska and the West Coast.

Worldwide, around 585 volcanoes are considered active.

Scientists can’t predict eruptions, but they can make a “forecast,” said Ben Andrews, who heads the global volcano program at the Smithsonian Institution and who was not involved in the study.

Andrews compared volcano forecasts to weather forecasts – informed “probabilities” that an event will occur. And better data about the past behavior of specific volcanos can help researchers finetune forecasts of future activity, experts say.

(asterisk)We can look for similar patterns in the future and expect that there’s a higher probability of conditions for an eruption happening,” said Klemetti Gonzalez.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Waymo’s robotaxis now open to anyone who wants a driverless ride in Los Angeles

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Waymo on Tuesday opened its robotaxi service to anyone who wants a ride around Los Angeles, marking another milestone in the evolution of self-driving car technology since the company began as a secret project at Google 15 years ago.

The expansion comes eight months after Waymo began offering rides in Los Angeles to a limited group of passengers chosen from a waiting list that had ballooned to more than 300,000 people. Now, anyone with the Waymo One smartphone app will be able to request a ride around an 80-square-mile (129-square-kilometer) territory spanning the second largest U.S. city.

After Waymo received approval from California regulators to charge for rides 15 months ago, the company initially chose to launch its operations in San Francisco before offering a limited service in Los Angeles.

Before deciding to compete against conventional ride-hailing pioneers Uber and Lyft in California, Waymo unleashed its robotaxis in Phoenix in 2020 and has been steadily extending the reach of its service in that Arizona city ever since.

Driverless rides are proving to be more than just a novelty. Waymo says it now transports more than 50,000 weekly passengers in its robotaxis, a volume of business numbers that helped the company recently raise $5.6 billion from its corporate parent Alphabet and a list of other investors that included venture capital firm Andreesen Horowitz and financial management firm T. Rowe Price.

“Our service has matured quickly and our riders are embracing the many benefits of fully autonomous driving,” Waymo co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana said in a blog post.

Despite its inroads, Waymo is still believed to be losing money. Although Alphabet doesn’t disclose Waymo’s financial results, the robotaxi is a major part of an “Other Bets” division that had suffered an operating loss of $3.3 billion through the first nine months of this year, down from a setback of $4.2 billion at the same time last year.

But Waymo has come a long way since Google began working on self-driving cars in 2009 as part of project “Chauffeur.” Since its 2016 spinoff from Google, Waymo has established itself as the clear leader in a robotaxi industry that’s getting more congested.

Electric auto pioneer Tesla is aiming to launch a rival “Cybercab” service by 2026, although its CEO Elon Musk said he hopes the company can get the required regulatory clearances to operate in Texas and California by next year.

Tesla’s projected timeline for competing against Waymo has been met with skepticism because Musk has made unfulfilled promises about the company’s self-driving car technology for nearly a decade.

Meanwhile, Waymo’s robotaxis have driven more than 20 million fully autonomous miles and provided more than 2 million rides to passengers without encountering a serious accident that resulted in its operations being sidelined.

That safety record is a stark contrast to one of its early rivals, Cruise, a robotaxi service owned by General Motors. Cruise’s California license was suspended last year after one of its driverless cars in San Francisco dragged a jaywalking pedestrian who had been struck by a different car driven by a human.

Cruise is now trying to rebound by joining forces with Uber to make some of its services available next year in U.S. cities that still haven’t been announced. But Waymo also has forged a similar alliance with Uber to dispatch its robotaxi in Atlanta and Austin, Texas next year.

Another robotaxi service, Amazon’s Zoox, is hoping to begin offering driverless rides to the general public in Las Vegas at some point next year before also launching in San Francisco.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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