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More Canadians to feel pinch of high rates in 2024, making way for lower inflation

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As another inflation-fighting year wraps up, the Bank of Canada’s quest to restore price stability is expected to begin drawing to a close in 2024.

The central bank’s hefty rate hikes are finally bearing fruit, allowing it to hold its key interest rate steady at five per cent over the last few months.

Higher borrowing costs have caused a pullback in business investment and consumer spending, making way for lower inflation.

The economic slowdown is expected to lay the groundwork for interest rate cuts as early as mid-2024, which would signal a turning point in the fight against inflation.

Desjardins’ chief economist says although the central bank’s rate hikes have helped get a handle on inflation, a lot of the slowdown in price growth has also come from global price pressures easing.

“We’re looking at inflation 3.1 per cent, now much less stressful than it was a year ago,” said Jimmy Jean, chief economist at Desjardins.

“And, part of it, I think, is yes, the actions the bank has taken. But another part is also things that were expected to (resolve) in their own right.”

Many of the global factors that contributed to the steep runup in prices, like mangled supply chains and high energy prices, have faded away.

And now high interest rates are doing the rest of the work.

Restoring price stability will be welcome news for Canadians, particularly lower-income households who been the hardest hit by climbing grocery bills and rents.

But getting back to low and stable inflation won’t come without some pain.

Variable rate mortgage holders were the first to feel the pinch of rate hikes. But as time passes, that squeeze is slowly spreading to other homeowners as well.

More Canadians are expected to renew their mortgages next year at higher interest rates, forcing them to cut back on expenses elsewhere.

Paul Beaudry, a former deputy governor at the Bank of Canada, says this speaks to the unequal effects of both inflation and interest rates.

“The tools that are used at the Bank of Canada, especially the interest rate, hits people very, very differentially,” Beaudry said.

“On one part, you mustn’t forget those groups that actually benefited by bringing (inflation) down. At the flip side, you have other groups that were more hit (by rate hikes).”

According to researchers at the Bank of Canada, about 45 per cent of mortgages that were taken out before the central bank started raising rates had seen an increase in their payments by the end of November.

The researchers say nearly all remaining mortgage holders in this group will renew by the end of 2026, likely meaning higher payments for them as well.

This wave of mortgage renewals is expected to have a chilling effect on the economy.

Forecasts suggest economic growth will be weak in 2024 before picking up again toward the end of the year.

Desjardins is projecting a mild recession in the first half of the year, while other forecasters expect the economy to keep its head slightly above water.

But if the economy skirts a recession and inflation falls back to two per cent, it will mean the central bank successfully walked the tight rope between raising rates by too little or too much.

For workers, a weaker economy will mean fewer job opportunities available and potentially slower wage growth.

The unemployment rate has crept up to 5.8 per cent in November and is expected to continue rising next year.

Desjardins is forecasting the unemployment rate will peak at 7.0 per cent in the third quarter next year.

The Bank of Canada has faced a lot of scrutiny over the last couple of years, particularly from the political realm, for its policy decisions since the COVID-19 pandemic hit.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre notably vowed to fire governor Tiff Macklem, blaming the central bank for the run up in inflation and accusing it of financing government spending.

Others, including New Democrats and premiers, have spoken out against the rapid rate hikes because of the financial squeeze they would cause for families.

Beaudry says the politicization of the central bank during this period of high inflation reinforces why it’s important to have a central bank that can make the right decisions, regardless of how unpopular they may be.

“I’m not surprised how much it gets politicized during an inflation period. What I think is the important part is to see how once this is over, and people look back, what credibility the bank will have. My guess it will have quite a bit of credibility,” Beaudry said.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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