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Producers advised to spend nothing on drilling as oil price hovers at US$25 amid COVID-19 pandemic – Global News

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World oil prices have fallen so low that producers in Canada are being advised not to spend any money on drilling and, in some cases, to stop producing crude oil from existing wells.

Benchmark U.S. crude oil prices rebounded Thursday from near-20-year-lows on Wednesday but remained near US$25 per barrel, a level at which conserving cash is the only way to ensure survival, according to a report entitled “A World Without Rigs” from Tudor, Pickering, Holt and Co.

READ MORE: Kenney says Alberta faces ‘period of profound adversity’ because of COVID-19 crisis

“If you believe prices are staying this low forever then we really don’t have an industry, but I think all of us believe there will be a recovery at some point in time,” said report author Jordan McNiven, a Calgary-based analyst, in an interview.

“It’s about hunkering down and making sure you’re around to see the other side … the most defensive approach you can take is to do nothing.”

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He said an analysis of the financial strength of Canadian producers his firm covers shows all can survive even if prices remain as low as US$25 through 2021 — provided they stop most spending.

It’s unlikely the low price environment will last that long but it could easily last more than six months, he warned.






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Oil price drop to historic lows amid COVID-19 pandemic


Oil price drop to historic lows amid COVID-19 pandemic

The list of companies cutting 2020 capital spending plans grew longer Thursday with Paramount Resources Ltd. reducing its budget range to between $185 million and $250 million, compared with earlier guidance for between $350 million and $450 million.

Fellow Calgary-based producer Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd., meanwhile, slashed its 2020 budget to about $100 million from $175 million.


READ MORE:
CNRL cuts spending, salaries as more oil producers trim capital plan

West Texas Intermediate crude prices tumbled to US$20.83 per barrel on Wednesday, their lowest level since at least 2003.

Bitumen-blend Western Canadian Select (WCS) crude, which trades in lockstep with WTI, closed at US$9.12 per barrel, a level that translates to less than half as much for the bitumen after subtracting the costs of buying light petroleum blend.

Global oil prices are being hit by fears that demand will fall due to the COVID-19 outbreak, at the same time that the market is flooded with barrels of cheap oil after Russia and Saudi Arabia failed to set new production limits.

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“With crude oil demand slowing and Russian and Saudi production ramping up, we are in an oversupply situation, and have seen third party estimates ranging from two million barrels per day to potentially about nine million barrels per day delta, with no clarity on when either of the two new phenomena might revert to prior levels,” said Stifel FirstEnergy in a research report.

READ MORE: More dividends chopped as energy firms address oil prices below US$30 per barrel

“While we clearly think that recent WTI prices are unsustainably low over the medium term, we have no particularly poignant insights as to whether the current status persists for weeks, months, quarters, or extends beyond a year.”

Consultancy Wood Mackenzie expects no production growth in Canada in 2020 compared with last year, said senior analyst April Read, adding it’s impossible to say how long low prices will persist.

“There are only a few levers companies can pull to handle these prices and reducing capex is one of them. It’s good to see companies being very decisive,” she said in an interview.

“It really is a price war between Russia and Saudi. In Canada we’re more of a price taker than a price setter for oil and gas.”


READ MORE:
Pembina Pipeline cuts capital spending plan by up to $1.1 billion

McNiven said he expects to see more producers to follow the example of Baytex Energy Corp. in shutting down production from wells that are less productive or more expensive to maintain.

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On Wednesday, Baytex announced it would stop producing about 3,500 bpd of low- or negative-margin heavy oil production, adding it will be able to quickly turn off more wells or restart shut-in ones if conditions change.

It reduced its production forecast by 8,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day to between 85,000 and 89,000 boe/d.

In a report Thursday, AltaCorp Capital noted that capital spending has been cut by an average of about 30 per cent compared with last year for 29 American and 17 Canadian producers who have announced reduced capital budgets so far.

“We note that revised 2020 budgets were mostly set when WTI was in the US$30 to $35 per barrel range and, given the continued declines in global crude prices over recent weeks, we believe further cuts could occur,” it said.

It said Canadian producers have collectively cut roughly $4.5 billion in capital spending since March 9.

© 2020 The Canadian Press

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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