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China to ramp up spending to revive economy, could cut growth target – sources – National Post

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BEIJING — China is set to unleash trillions of yuan of fiscal stimulus to revive an economy expected to shrink for the first time in four decades amid the coronavirus pandemic, while a planned growth target is likely to be cut, according to four policy sources.

The ramped-up spending will aim to spur infrastructure investment, backed by as much as 2.8 trillion yuan ($394 billion) of local government special bonds, said the sources. The national budget deficit ratio could rise to record levels, they added.

Beijing is likely to have to lower its economic growth target for 2020 given the prolonged impact of the pandemic, according to the sources involved in internal policy discussions who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.

Chinese leaders are considering proposals from advisers to cut it to as low as 5% from the original target of around 6% agreed in December, they added.

The National Development and Reform Commission, the top state planner, the finance ministry and the central bank did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request for comment.

The measures come at a time when private-sector analysts are slashing their growth forecasts for China to lows not seen since the Cultural Revolution ended in 1976, with a sharp contraction expected in the first quarter.

China’s growth hit a near 30-year low of 6.1% in 2019, and the landscape has darkened significantly this year as the virus outbreak and strict containment have severely disrupted businesses.

“When the economy is suffering a big shock, it’s necessary to step up fiscal policy support given that monetary policy will have limited effectiveness,” a policy source said.

Higher spending could push the 2020 budget deficit ratio to as high as 3.5% – up from last year’s 2.8%, the sources said.

The government has long kept a 3% ceiling on the annual budget deficit ratio, which was last reached in 2017, and a level of 3.5% would be the highest on record, analysts said.

On Monday, National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Mao Shengyong said at a briefing that there was room for appropriately raising the annual budget deficit ratio.

The central bank could, meanwhile, cut banks’ reserve requirement ratios and interest rates further to help spur lending and lower funding costs for firms, the policy sources said.

China has already rolled out a raft of fiscal and monetary measures to provide credit and tax relief to companies, especially small businesses that have borne the brunt of the outbreak.

NEW INFRASTRUCTURE

Beijing is targeting infrastructure investment as a recovery in consumption could be slowed by rising job losses rise, while exports could be hit as the global economy reels from the pandemic, the policy sources said.

Local governments will be allowed to issue more special bonds, which could hit 2.5-2.8 trillion yuan this year, compared with 2.15 trillion yuan in 2019, the sources said.

The government aims to speed up the construction of planned key infrastructure projects as well as to launch some new projects for public health, emergency materials supply, 5G networks and data centers that have been endorsed by top leaders, the policy sources said.

“We need to find infrastructure projects that are vital to the economy, but it’s more difficult to find good projects than in 1998 and 2008,” said a second source, referring to the Asian financial crisis and global crisis.

Beijing faces constraints from rising debt levels and falling investment returns, following repeated stimulus efforts since the global financial crisis, when it unleashed a massive spending package.

GROWTH TARGET CUT LIKELY

Faced with limited room to stimulate its highly-leveraged economy, Chinese leaders may have to lower their planned growth target for 2020 due to the pandemic, the sources said.

Policy advisers are proposing a revised target of 5-5.5% or around 5%, from the planned target of around 6% that looks to be well beyond China’s reach.

This year could be crucial for President Xi Jinping’s ruling Communist Party to fulfill its goal of doubling gross domestic product (GDP) and incomes in the decade from 2010 to 2020.

A growth rate of about 5.6% this year would be enough for achieving those goals.

Any target revisions would be decided by top leaders ahead of the annual parliament meeting, which was originally scheduled for March 5 but was postponed due to the outbreak, the policy sources said.

China tentatively plans to hold its delayed parliamentary gathering in late April or early May, sources have previously told Reuters, as new coronavirus cases in the country drop sharply even as they surge elsewhere in the world.

($1 = 7.0724 Chinese yuan renminbi) (Reporting by Kevin Yao; Editing by Pravin Char)

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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