(Bloomberg) — India’s government is likely to estimate economic growth close to 7% in the current fiscal year, keeping it on track to be the fastest-growing major economy in the world.
The first official estimate for gross domestic product, due to be released on Friday, will probably be set at 6.7%, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The Reserve Bank of India has already raised its projection for the fiscal year ending March 31 to 7%, while Bloomberg Economics is predicting 7.3% growth.
Strong consumer and government spending, a robust services sector, and a boost in manufacturing has helped buoy India’s economy in the face of a weaker global economy and six RBI rate hikes since 2022. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has ramped up spending on infrastructure, while foreign businesses are investing more India, especially in tech manufacturing, as they look for alternative locations to China.
Several major banks, including Barclays Plc and Citigroup Inc., have already raised their full-year projections for the current fiscal year.
Lower commodity prices are also giving a boost to growth. India’s basket of crude oil averaged $77.42 a barrel in December, its lowest level since July.
“Falling energy and other commodity prices will give room for corporates to improve their margins, which should positively influence GDP growth ahead,” said Barclays economist Rahul Bajoria.
The Indian government uses the official GDP estimate to assess spending priorities in its budget. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present an interim budget on Feb. 1 ahead of elections due in coming months.
What Bloomberg Economics Says
Supportive policies and rapid infrastructure build-out are powering the industrial sector and helping accelerate India’s integration into global supply chains.
Abhishek Gupta, India economist
For the full report, click here
Growth may be more challenging in the fiscal year beginning in April. The global economy remains uncertain, while India’s inflation is still a worry for policymakers, especially food prices. The RBI has kept interest rates unchanged for five policy meetings now.
“India could see growth over its coming fiscal year slow at the margin, as sticky inflation exerts a drag, but interest rate cuts could come into view just when the country holds national elections,” HSBC Holdings Plc’s economist Frederic Neumann wrote in a note. HSBC expects cuts of 50 basis points over 2024.
After witnessing some moderation in the past two months, services activity picked up pace in December. The HSBC India Services Purchasing Manager’s Index climbed to 59.0 in December from 56.9 a month ago as sellers were able to increase prices despite cost pressures receding to their lowest in nearly three-and-a-half years.
TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.
The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.
The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.
The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.
In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.
Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 172.18 points at 23,383.35.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 34.99 points at 40,826.72. The S&P 500 index was up 10.56 points at 5,564.69, while the Nasdaq composite was up 74.84 points at 17,470.37.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.55 cents US compared with 73.59 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up $2.00 at US$69.31 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up five cents at US$2.32 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$40.00 at US$2,582.40 an ounce and the December copper contract was up six cents at US$4.20 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
