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This chart will tell you when to bolt from Canadian investments

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I firmly believe there’s one chart that represents the most important data relationship for the domestic economy in 2024. It measures the extent to which mortgage debt is strangling Canadian economic growth.

This chart right now isn’t sending a definitive signal of what’s to come. But the backdrop to this data relationship couldn’t be more alarming: The ratio of total household debt to disposable income stands near record highs at 182 per cent.

The red line on the chart shows the year-over-year percentage change in the debt service ratio (the proportion of disposable income necessary to make monthly service payments on debt), and the blue line is the year-over-year percentage change in retail sales.

The premise in comparing these series is that if Canadian households are struggling with the effects of higher borrowing costs and mortgage renewals, the stress will first be apparent in retail sales data. Mortgage and credit card payments can’t be skipped, but overall spending can be curtailed to compensate.

The correlation between the debt service ratio and retail sales has been inconsistent at best over the past 30 years – extremely low from 1993 to 2008, and then significantly higher, but not excessive, in the post-financial-crisis, prepandemic era.

Things got a lot more interesting starting in September, 2022, with rising interest rates pushing the debt service ratio sharply higher while retail sales growth headed straight south. The data reached extremes during the first half of 2023. The 0.7 per cent year-over-year decline in retail sales was only exceeded during the financial crisis and early in the pandemic. The 9.7-per-cent jump in debt service costs registered in March, 2023, is the biggest increase in at least 30 years.

The divergence in the chart closed somewhat last September (the most recent debt-to disposable-income report available), with the debt ratio higher by a still-elevated 6.7 per cent and retail sales recovering to 2.7 per cent growth, year over year.

I’m not suggesting the recent data prove that debt payments are crowding out spending – not yet. As it stands, the chart shows a debt-to-disposable-income ratio that continues to trend higher, while retail sales growth remains well below the 20-year average of 4.5 per cent, year over year.

A healthy domestic job market and fading (if stubborn) inflation pressure should prevent a worst-case scenario of mortgage defaults, a deep recession and a collapse in consumption. Economic and investment risk will rise, on the other hand, if the two lines on the chart diverge.

Domestic gross domestic product growth has been anemic lately – Bank of Montreal strategist Benjamin Reitzes noted that the “Canadian economy is going nowhere” in a recent report. This provides an economic backdrop that is likely to pressure retail sales precisely when higher interest rates are making life more difficult for more households.

Investors should pay careful attention to both data series as 2024 progresses. If the divergence on the chart expands, investors should favour market sectors with higher foreign rather than domestic revenue.

Scott Barlow is a market strategist for The Globe and Mail

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Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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