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The Russians are spending big on infrastructure to absorb occupied Ukraine – CBC.ca

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Armies rarely measure their success by the roads they’ve paved or the rail lines they’ve laid down — but that may be the metric Russia is using in occupied portions of Ukraine, where major infrastructure projects are underway or are being planned.

Over the last few months, Moscow-based media have reported on the construction of a new railway line between Rostov-on-Don in Russia, near the Sea of Azov and the border with Ukraine, and Yakymivka, about 10 kilometres north of the Crimean peninsula.

Experts in both Europe and North America describe it, and other potential public works projects, as part of a far-reaching attempt by the Kremlin to bind the territory it has captured more closely to Russia — something to which western nations backing Ukraine need to pay close attention.

Although details are scarce, the new rail line would mainly go through occupied Ukrainian territory — the southern regions of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia — and past the key cities of Mariupol and Melitopol.

The Russian and Ukrainian armies may be locked in a death struggle with little movement of the frontlines, but the bricks and mortar work behind those lines (and the economic consolidation that comes with it) is becoming increasingly important, said one expert.

“I think Putin can still win the war, in the post-fighting period,” said Matthew Schmidt, an expert on Eastern Europe at the University of New Haven Connecticut.

“If Ukraine doesn’t become a modernized, economically stable and prosperous country, then eventually Putin can exert the kind of political control over Ukraine that he was trying to do by military means and failed to do.”

Schmidt said the consolidation underscores how “countries like Canada and the United States have to absolutely come through [on] supporting Ukraine economically with donor funds, and with support for large-scale foreign direct investment.”

Ukraine’s Ambassador to Canada Yuliya Kovaliv has for months been making the same argument to political and business audiences — most recently when she defended the modernization of the Canada-Ukraine Free Trade Agreement.

Yuliya Kovaliv, Ukraine’s ambassador to Canada, has been pushing for aid and investment to restore her country’s shattered infrastructure. (Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press)

“This stability and security will serve as a catalyst for increased investment and economic co-operation, which will create jobs in both countries,” Kovaliv told the House of Commons standing committee on international trade.

She noted that Ukraine is starting with an infrastructure deficit, due to the widespread destruction caused by Russian bombs and missiles.

“Infrastructure is one of the sectors that suffered the most in terms of damages, including the critical infrastructure,” she testified.

“Only last winter, 50 per cent of all of the electricity grids, part of the critical infrastructure in Ukraine, has been damaged. This paves the way for the structural rebuilding of the sectors, and we would welcome Canadian companies to cooperate with Ukrainians in the rebuilding of the infrastructure sector.”

A view of Podil district during a blackout after a Russian rocket attack in Kyiv, Ukraine, Wednesday, Nov. 23, 2022.
A view of Podil district during a blackout after a Russian rocket attack in Kyiv, Ukraine on Wednesday, Nov. 23, 2022. (Andrew Kravchenko/Associated Press)

The $107 billion the United States has sent to Ukraine makes it by far the country’s largest donor of economic and military aid, according to tracking carried out by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

On Friday, the United Kingdom announced a package of mostly military aid worth $4.2 billion Cdn. The government of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is, however, among the top contributors to Ukraine, with overall assistance pledges amounting to $15.8 billion Cdn.

Canada, meanwhile, has contributed $4.85 billion in loan assistance to Ukraine in addition to $2.4 billion in military aid.

Allies’ aid pledges have started to dwindle

But analysts at the Kiel Institute have noted that allied pledges have seen a steep decline as the war has dragged on.

“Newly committed aid has reached a new low between August to October 2023 — an almost 90 per cent drop compared to the same period in 2022,” said a report by the German-based institute dated Dec. 7, 2023.

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (IFSW) has also noted Russia’s increased investment in the occupied regions.

“Russian regional and occupation authorities continue infrastructure programs designed to integrate occupied Ukraine into Russia,” the IFSW said in a situation report.

Oleksandr Musiienko, the head of the Center for Military and Legal Studies in Kyiv, said there’s a clear-cut military imperative for Russia to construct a rail line through occupied regions of Ukraine.

“They’re thinking about alternative routes to the Kerch Bridge,” Musiienko told CBC News, referring to the parallel bridges — one a four-lane road and the other a double-track railway — that connect occupied Crimea with Russia.

Smoke billows from a train on a bridge, which also shows several box cars in flames.
Black smoke billows from a fire on the Kerch bridge that links Crimea to Russia after a truck exploded near Kerch on October 8, 2022. (AFP/Getty Images)

Much of Moscow’s war materiel is funnelled over the bridge, which has been a frequent target for Ukrainian forces.

“They’re scared what could happen if Ukrainians have success” in destroying the structure, Musiienko said.

Musiienko said it’s also clear the Kremlin wants to demonstrate to the people in the occupied regions how they would “rebuild and restore” the territories.

The flip side, he said, is that whatever Russia tries to build, Ukraine will try to knock down with long-range missile and drone strikes.

Speaking before the House of Commons defence committee in December, Rand Corporation expert Howard Shatz said the West is a unique position to give Ukraine a leg-up in terms of investment.

Historically, the kind of aid the United States, the U.K. and Canada have been providing only moves the investment needle so far.

“Private investment that Ukraine mobilizes from new and existing foreign investors, residents and even — or especially — the Ukrainian diaspora will be essential to successful reconstruction,” Shatz said, noting that investment needs to be coupled with western security guarantees.

“The only thing I’ll say about security now is that durable security arrangements, supported by the West, will help Ukraine deter and defend against future Russian attacks. However, they’ll do more than that. Historically, we have seen that such arrangements give investors the confidence to take risks and make long-term commitments.”

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Political parties cool to idea of new federal regulations for nomination contests

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OTTAWA – Several federal political parties are expressing reservations about the prospect of fresh regulations to prevent foreign meddlers from tainting their candidate nomination processes.

Elections Canada has suggested possible changes to safeguard nominations, including barring non-citizens from helping choose candidates, requiring parties to publish contest rules and explicitly outlawing behaviour such as voting more than once.

However, representatives of the Bloc Québécois, Green Party and NDP have told a federal commission of inquiry into foreign interference that such changes may be unwelcome, difficult to implement or counterproductive.

The Canada Elections Act currently provides for limited regulation of federal nomination races and contestants.

For instance, only contestants who accept $1,000 in contributions or incur $1,000 in expenses have to file a financial return. In addition, the act does not include specific obligations concerning candidacy, voting, counting or results reporting other than the identity of the successful nominee.

A report released in June by the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians expressed concern about how easily foreign actors can take advantage of loopholes and vulnerabilities to support preferred candidates.

Lucy Watson, national director of the NDP, told the inquiry Thursday she had concerns about the way in which new legislation would interact with the internal decision-making of the party.

“We are very proud of the fact that our members play such a significant role in shaping the internal policies and procedures and infrastructure of the party, and I would not want to see that lost,” she said.

“There are guidelines, there are best practices that we would welcome, but if we were to talk about legal requirements and legislation, that’s something I would have to take away and put further thought into, and have discussions with folks who are integral to the party’s governance.”

In an August interview with the commission of inquiry, Bloc Québécois executive director Mathieu Desquilbet said the party would be opposed to any external body monitoring nomination and leadership contest rules.

A summary tabled Thursday says Desquilbet expressed doubts about the appropriateness of requiring nomination candidates to file a full financial report with Elections Canada, saying the agency’s existing regulatory framework and the Bloc’s internal rules on the matter are sufficient.

Green Party representatives Jon Irwin and Robin Marty told the inquiry in an August interview it would not be realistic for an external body, like Elections Canada, to administer nomination or leadership contests as the resources required would exceed the federal agency’s capacity.

A summary of the interview says Irwin and Marty “also did not believe that rules violations could effectively be investigated by an external body like the Office of the Commissioner of Canada Elections.”

“The types of complaints that get raised during nomination contests can be highly personal, politically driven, and could overwhelm an external body.”

Marty, national campaign director for the party, told the inquiry Thursday that more reporting requirements would also place an administrative burden on volunteers and riding workers.

In addition, he said that disclosing the vote tally of a nomination contest could actually help foreign meddlers by flagging the precise number of ballots needed for a candidate to be chosen.

Irwin, interim executive director of the Greens, said the ideal tactic for a foreign country would be working to get someone in a “position of power” within a Canadian political party.

He said “the bad guys are always a step ahead” when it comes to meddling in the Canadian political process.

In May, David Vigneault, director of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service at the time, said it was very clear from the design of popular social media app TikTok that data gleaned from its users is available to the Chinese government.

A December 2022 CSIS memo tabled at the inquiry Thursday said TikTok “has the potential to be exploited” by Beijing to “bolster its influence and power overseas, including in Canada.”

Asked about the app, Marty told the inquiry the Greens would benefit from more “direction and guidance,” given the party’s lack of resources to address such things.

Representatives of the Liberal and Conservative parties are slated to appear at the inquiry Friday, while chief electoral officer Stéphane Perrault is to testify at a later date.

After her party representatives appeared Thursday, Green Leader Elizabeth May told reporters it was important for all party leaders to work together to come up with acceptable rules.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

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New Brunswick election candidate profile: Green Party Leader David Coon

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FREDERICTON – A look at David Coon, leader of the Green Party of New Brunswick:

Born: Oct. 28, 1956.

Early years: Born in Toronto and raised in Montreal, he spent about three decades as an environmental advocate.

Education: A trained biologist, he graduated with a bachelor of science from McGill University in Montreal in 1978.

Family: He and his wife Janice Harvey have two daughters, Caroline and Laura.

Before politics: Worked as an environmental educator, organizer, activist and manager for 33 years, mainly with the Conservation Council of New Brunswick.

Politics: Joined the Green Party of Canada in May 2006 and was elected leader of the New Brunswick Green Party in September 2012. Won a seat in the legislature in 2014 — a first for the province’s Greens.

Quote: “It was despicable. He’s clearly decided to take the low road in this campaign, to adopt some Trump-lite fearmongering.” — David Coon on Sept. 12, 2024, reacting to Blaine Higgs’s claim that the federal government had decided to send 4,600 asylum seekers to New Brunswick.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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New Brunswick election profile: Progressive Conservative Leader Blaine Higgs

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FREDERICTON – A look at Blaine Higgs, leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick.

Born: March 1, 1954.

Early years: The son of a customs officer, he grew up in Forest City, N.B., near the Canada-U.S. border.

Education: Graduated from the University of New Brunswick with a degree in mechanical engineering in 1977.

Family: Married his high-school sweetheart, Marcia, and settled in Saint John, N.B., where they had four daughters: Lindsey, Laura, Sarah and Rachel.

Before politics: Hired by Irving Oil a week after he graduated from university and was eventually promoted to director of distribution. Worked for 33 years at the company.

Politics: Elected to the legislature in 2010 and later served as finance minister under former Progressive Conservative Premier David Alward. Elected Tory leader in 2016 and has been premier since 2018.

Quote: “I’ve always felt parents should play the main role in raising children. No one is denying gender diversity is real. But we need to figure out how to manage it.” — Blaine Higgs in a year-end interview in 2023, explaining changes to school policies about gender identity.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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