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Bank of Canada expected to hold rates steady, while analysts watch for hints of coming cuts

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Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem listens during a news conference following an interest rate announcement on Oct. 25, 2023, in Ottawa.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press

The Bank of Canada is expected to remain on pause for its first interest rate decision of the year, but analysts will be watching for hints about the timing of future rate cuts as the economy stagnates.

Financial markets and Bay Street economists see the central bank holding its policy interest rate at 5 per cent on Wednesday, in what would be its fourth stand-pat decision since July. It will also publish a new set of projections for inflation and economic growth.

Governor Tiff Macklem and his team are entering 2024 in a kind of limbo. High borrowing costs have brought economic growth in Canada to a standstill, unemployment is on the rise, and businesses and consumers are feeling gloomy, according to central bank surveys published last week. Yet so far, the economy has avoided an outright recession, which many economists were predicting this time last year.

Meanwhile, the annual rate of Consumer Price Index inflation has slowed considerably since a mid-2022 peak of 8.1 per cent.

However, it ticked up to 3.4 per cent in December from 3.1 per cent the month before, and measures of core inflation, which strip out the most volatile components of the CPI to capture underlying price pressures, appear to be stuck in the 3.5-per-cent to 4-per-cent range. Average hourly wages, which the bank watches closely, continue to rise quickly across the country.

“In terms of the actual setting of monetary policy, economic developments have been soft enough to reinforce that further interest rate hikes won’t be needed, but inflation (and wage growth) have also been too sticky to push the BoC to consider starting an easing cycle yet,” Royal Bank of Canada economists Nathan Janzen and Claire Fan wrote in a note to clients.

Interest rate swap markets, which capture market expectations about monetary policy, put the odds of the first rate cut happening in April at around 60 per cent, according to Refinitiv data. Many Bay Street analysts think it will be closer to the middle of the year, at the rate decision in June or July.

Mr. Macklem said last month that he needed to be convinced that inflation was on a “sustained downward track” before cutting rates. He said inflation should be “getting close to” 2 per cent by the end of 2024, and that the bank could start cutting rates before inflation gets all the way back to target, given that monetary policy changes work with a lag.

With markets pricing a high probability of a hold on Wednesday, the big questions are around the bank’s communication: How will Mr. Macklem and senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers talk about inflation at the press conference after the rate announcement? Will they close the rhetorical door on further rate hikes, and open it to possible rate cuts in the coming quarters?

To date, central bank officials have maintained they could raise interest rates further if inflation doesn’t co-operate. But analysts and bond traders have largely dismissed the possibility. And the meeting minutes from the bank’s December rate decision suggest that most members of the bank’s governing council now believe that borrowing costs are high enough to bring inflation back to target over time.

If Mr. Macklem and Ms. Rogers focus on the stickiness of core inflation, it could be interpreted as a hawkish signal and lead traders to dial back bets on an April cut.

By contrast, if they play up the sluggish economy or the fact that inflation excluding shelter costs is now back within the bank’s 1-per-cent to 3-per-cent control range, it would be read as dovish. Shelter inflation is being heavily influenced by a jump in year-over-year mortgage interest costs, which are tied to the bank’s past interest rate hikes.

“The narrative will determine the data and not the other way around,” Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal wrote in a note to clients. “Therefore, the tone of Governor Macklem’s press conference will become increasingly more important than any new data releases because, at the end of the day, the Bank can always find an inflation number to fit its narrative.”

Analysts are also watching for a possible change in language around the Bank of Canada’s Quantitative Tightening (QT) program.

Since 2022, the bank has been shrinking the size of its balance sheet, which ballooned during the first 1½ years of the COVID-19 pandemic as it bought hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of federal government bonds to suppress interest rates.

It has been letting these bonds mature without replacing them, leading its holdings to shrink from a peak of $430-billion to around $270-billion. This process is pulling liquidity out of the financial system, as the money created to buy the bonds in the first place – essentially reserves at the central bank called “settlement balances” – is retired.

Bank officials have said they expect to end QT in late 2024 or early 2025. However, analysts have started questioning whether the bank may need to halt the process before then, after recent signs of strain in money markets. Earlier this month, the bank had to pump money temporarily into the financial system on an overnight basis to try to keep market-based interest rates trading near its target.

Previous experience with QT in the United States shows that financial markets can start to misfire when the central bank tries to reduce its bond holdings and withdraw liquidity from the system. In the past, that led the U.S. Federal Reserve to stop QT early.

“Tapering or ending QT isn’t an easy decision to take. It would mean that the Bank of Canada’s purchases of Government of Canada bonds were not temporary after all, opening the institution up to criticism that it had financed the federal government’s massive COVID deficits,” Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins, said in a note to clients.

However, if the markets department at the central bank “determines that restraining QT is necessary, they won’t hesitate to act,” he said.

 

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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