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The five challenges facing Italy’s economy in 2024

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In its latest forecast, the Bank of Italy estimates the country’s economy will slow down further in 2024, with inflation expected to see a rise.

Italy’s financial matters are likely to remain one of the country’s most important issues this year, with its public finances still in a precarious condition. Italy needs more workers for various industries but a drive to increase workers from outside Italy is likely to be held back because of growing far-right influence.

Slowing GDP growth rate

In its latest forecast, the Bank of Italy estimates gross domestic product (GDP) will slow down further in 2024, down to 0.6% from 0.7% in 2023. Inflation, something that impacts consumers directly and significantly, has toned down a little but is expected to increase once again to above the 2% threshold. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, still stands at 3.1%, as per the figures released in December. Measures put in place to curb the impact of rising energy prices – such as a 22% VAT rate on gas – are being lifted, thereby leading to another inflationary jump.

Investment, especially in the construction sector, declined sharply in 2023 and, according to GlobalData, there will be a further decline of 8.6% this year,  in combination with falling employment, permits, and residential permits. Analysts Fitch Solutions forecasts a slowdown in consumer spending and investment on the previous two years. It expects  GDP growth in 2024 to slow to 0.3%, below an estimate of 0.8%.

Soft labour market

Another function of a slowing economy is it leads to a tightening of financial conditions. Fitch Solutions believes the European Central Bank (ECB) will keep its rate at 4% until October which might adversely affect business/manufacturing activity.

It is important to note that 75.1% of loans taken out in 2023 by households and businesses were what is called a floating-rate loan, where the level of interest paid back on the loan is varied, not fixed. This means that, if interest rates rise, those with the floating-rate loans will have to pay back more interest on their loans. An increased cost of borrowing for business and individuals means both groups are likely to have less money to spend elsewhere.

Another possible impact could be a softening of labour markets. The rating agency expects unemployment to reach 8.5% by end of 2024 vs 7.6% in Q2 of 2023 in Italy.

Consumers to expect more pain

Falling employment levels and slowing wage growth is expected to put further pressure on consumers and their spending. For instance, if we look at the mortgage rate in August 2023, it stood at 4.3%, up from a previous 3%. This inevitably has an adverse effect on consumers’ disposable income.

Climate

With climate disasters becoming more prevalent in the country, the catastrophic floods of 2023 seemed to becoming more common in some parts of Italy. If the trend remains in 2024, it seems that the climate inconsistency of Italy may lead to the country experiencing a series of extreme weather events that will prove hazardous for its socio-economic landscape.

Considering that the second year of El Nino is usually warmer than the first, 2024 may bring climatic challenges for Italy in the major sectors of health, energy and food.

Italy and the G7 leadership challenge

The year began with the Italy taking over the presidency of G7 from Japan. This could turn out to be one of the main challenges for Italy as the transfer of power comes at a crucial time. With the ongoing national challenges such as slow GDP growth, an immigration crisis and a soft labour market, the global scenario seems bleak. The war between Russia and Ukraine continues while the ongoing Israel-Gaza crisis is further exacerbated by the Red Sea standoff.

 

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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