‘I think Calgary is going to see some of the stronger price gains, in part because we’re coming form such a low inventory level’
Sellers in Calgary will likely remain in the driver’s seat for 2024 despite loosening conditions in the city’s housing market, the local real estate board says.
Calgary’s real estate market is struggling to keep up with demand despite hitting new highs for housing starts, according to Calgary Real Estate Board’s (CREB) annual outlook report, released Tuesday.
Several risks continue to hold for the market this year, but Calgary remains significantly more affordable than other major Canadian cities.
Four key markers were down significantly in 2023: sales (down eight per cent), new listings (down 13 per cent), inventory (down 26 per cent) and months of supply (down 20 per cent). Meanwhile, the benchmark price in Calgary rose six per cent, hitting $556,975.
The housing crunch has led to a significant uptick in apartment building starts, which drove overall housing starts to the highest levels in the past 18 years.
But that was offset by the fastest population growth in Alberta since 1981, as the province added 145,000 new residents over the first three quarters of 2023. (In 2021, Alberta added 28,640 people — which included a net loss of more than 6,000 people to interprovincial migration.)
“What’s really the differentiator is for the second year in a row, Alberta has been only second to (Prince Edward Island) in terms of total employment growth,” she said. “When you have strong employment gains, people come here.”
Despite price increases over the past two years, the average apartment or condo in Toronto and Vancouver still goes for about the same amount as a single-detached home in Calgary.
Calgary, a city defined by suburban sprawl, saw record apartment sales as those units became an increasingly dominant choice for buyers due to their relative affordability.In 2021, apartments made up just 15 per cent of all home sales. That number has nearly doubled — hitting 28.8 per cent in 2023 — and is projected to rise.
Calgary and Edmonton’s real estate markets told very different stories over the past year, as Calgary welcomed a comparatively large number of the international and domestic migrants.
In fact, while Calgary’s benchmark price increased six per cent, Edmonton’s dropped nearly five per cent to $368,350.
Sales, inventory and new listings also dropped substantially in Edmonton — but the city has more than double the months of supply (3.4) than Calgary (1.3).
That was explained by Edmonton’s higher supply levels at the beginning of last year, Lurie said, which is partly due to employment gains between the two cities. In 2022, Calgary added more than 56,000 jobs to Edmonton’s 30,500. That flipped in 2023, with Calgary adding more than 25,000 workers and Edmonton bringing in more than 41,000.
Rising prices and fewer sales defined smaller surrounding communities; Canmore, Airdrie, Cochrane, Strathmore, Okotoks and High River all experienced double-digit percentage drops in sales, and all saw their benchmark prices increase between four and eight per cent.
Calgary will likely remain undersupplied in 2024, Lurie said.
While the number of housing starts increased in 2023, Lurie noted the average house takes nine months to complete, while the average apartment complex takes 18 months, meaning many homes are still in the pipeline.
Alberta will likely see job openings this year as employment gains have started tapering, according to a recent report from the Business Council of Alberta. Residential investment is also 17 per cent below 2021 levels on Canada’s construction investment index, the same report said.
Christian Twomey, a Calgary real estate agent and CREB chair, said employment is compelling Canadians — specifically in the Lower Mainland of B.C. and southern Ontario — to move to Alberta. The province’s unprecedented population boom, he said, has been different than past growth because it’s been fuelled by more than just the energy sector.
“It’s bringing more employment opportunities for people to migrate to this province, which is fantastic,” he said.
Several environmental policies have CREB’s attention, too. The report noted recent federal policy announcements, such as the Clean Energy Regulations and emissions cap on oil and gas companies, could affect investment and the number of new jobs being created in Alberta. Lurie said she’s uncertain whether they will have a negative economic effect, but she’s watching whether traditional energy jobs are transitioned into new sectors.
“It’s really about that total employment number — are we still creating employment, is there a concern with that? . . . A sudden change in employment and job loss, that’s where that tends to have an impact on the housing market.”
TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.
The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.
“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.
“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”
The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.
New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.
In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.
The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.
“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.
“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”
He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.
“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.
“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”
All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.
Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.
“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.
“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.
Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.
Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.
The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.
Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.
They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.
The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.
Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.
Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500
Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438
Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103
Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359
Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent
How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
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