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South Korea’s Economy Holds Steady as Credit Risks Persist

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(Bloomberg) — South Korea’s economic growth held steady last quarter as exports maintained momentum, but lingering credit risks cloud the outlook ahead of parliamentary elections crucial to President Yoon Suk Yeol’s policy initiatives.

Gross domestic product grew 0.6% in the three months through December from the previous quarter, the Bank of Korea said Thursday. That figure matched economists’ forecast of a 0.6% expansion. From a year earlier, the economy expanded by 2.2%.

For 2023 as a whole, the economy expanded 1.4%, in line with an earlier BOK projection.

South Korea’s economy serves as an leading indicator of the health of the world economy as it depends heavily on international trade. Its performance is closely tied to major economies, in particular, its key trading partners China and the US.

Yoon has made stronger economic and technology ties with the US a centerpiece of his presidency since taking office in 2022. The US last month overtook China as South Korea’s largest export destination for the first time in two decades.

Yoon’s ruling party is seeking to retake a majority through elections in April. A win would help lower political hurdles for Yoon to reduce wealth taxes, take a tougher stance on North Korea and continue his emphasis on tightening relations with the US and Japan during the remainder of his tenure that ends in 2027.

Yoon also has drummed up support for a bigger semiconductor cluster in South Korea, in recognition of tech exports as a pillar of the nation’s future prosperity. Policymakers expect chip exports to rebound this year, boosting economic growth to above 2% and underpinning investment.

If and when growth does pick up, the BOK will be wary of the potential for inflation to flare up. For now the bank is poised to keep its benchmark interest rate at 3.5%, which it characterizes as restrictive. The BOK has kept the policy rate at that level for a full year.

Higher rates have put a strain on Korea’s credit markets, and a debt crisis has engulfed local developer Taeyoung E&C since late last year. Developers play a major role in the economy, and a property market slump adds to concerns for the government.

The construction industry took the biggest hit last quarter in GDP, shrinking 4.2% from the previous three-month period and marking its biggest drop since the first quarter of 2012.

Meanwhile, private consumption eked out 0.2% growth, while government spending was up 0.4%. Meanwhile, South Korea’s exports in real terms increased 2.6%, as facilities investment advanced 3%.

An economic slowdown in China particularly weighed on Korea’s exports through last summer, while geopolitical tensions between Washington and Beijing cast a cloud over the semiconductor industry. South Korea has large chipmaking facilities in China, with the companies running them subject to technology controls by the US.

Consumption remains weak in China in another headwind for Korea. Exports to the world’s second-largest economy eked out just 0.1% growth from a year in the first 20 days of January, according to customs office data.

“We expect a modest rebound in exports to China this year,” Duncan Wrigley, an economist with Pantheon Economics, said in a note this week. “The upcycle in semiconductor shipments should continue, led by high-end chips for AI-related applications.”

The World Trade Organization has predicted that growth in global commerce will accelerate to 3.3% this year from 0.8% in 2023, while the World Bank projects a 2.3% gain in trade volume, versus 0.2% last year.

 

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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