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Interest rates may have peaked – is it time to jump into the housing market?

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After the Bank of Canada on Wednesday gave its clearest hints yet that its interest rate cycle might have peaked, some real estate experts are expecting hope for lower borrowing costs will set up a busy spring housing market.

The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate at 5.0 per cent for the fourth consecutive time on Wednesday, with governor Tiff Macklem saying that conversations at the central bank have shifted from whether rates need to rise higher to how long they need to stay at current levels.

Macklem was asked by reporters for a timeline for rate cuts, but he pushed back, arguing he didn’t want to give Canadians a “false sense of precision.” The bank’s rate path is still dependent on inflation, with additional hikes not off the table if price pressures reignite.

Many economists said, however, that the Bank of Canada’s shift in tone away from emphasizing the need for future tightening is in line with calls for interest rate cuts to begin sometime in the spring or summer of this year.

Phil Soper, CEO of Royal LePage, tells Global News that Wednesday’s widely expected hold and the communications from the central bank solidify the national real estate brokerage’s forecast for a modest rebound in the housing market this year.

“We believe this will provide Canadians with more comfort that home prices in their city have stabilized and the next step will be a return to home price appreciation,” he says.

 

Signs of an early start to the spring housing market

After more than a year of housing correction tied to the Bank of Canada’s rapid rate hike campaign that began in March 2022, there are already signs of life in the Canadian housing market.

December’s home sales figures showed an uptick in activity to end 2023, with market watchers pointing to warmer weather and a pullback in borrowing costs driving deals before the end of the year.

TD Bank chief economist Beata Caranci told Global BC on Wednesday that declining bond yields have fed through to fixed mortgage rates on offer in the market, pulling buyers off the sidelines as they qualify for cheaper mortgages.

“We are already seeing homebuyers jump back into the market,” she said.

If the Bank of Canada delivers on expectations for interest rate cuts – TD Bank expects a decline of 100-150 basis points this year – that will serve to ignite housing activity, particularly in the second half of the year, Caranci said.

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Soper, too, reports that clients have been contacting Royal LePage agents in greater numbers since mid-November, which he says sets up more activity for the start of 2024. Coming off a slow 2023, he expects the spring housing market to be “more or less balanced” for buyers and sellers.

But if lower mortgage rates mean a rising number of homes change hands, expect that prices won’t be far behind, Soper says.

That sets up a conundrum for homebuyers who are debating jumping into the housing market at today’s rates in hopes of timing the bottoming for home prices, he says.

“The decision that consumers need to make is, do I wait for cheaper money or do I get in ahead of rising home prices?”

 

Soper expects that buyers in some of Canada’s largest housing markets – the greater Toronto and Vancouver areas, Victoria and Ottawa to name a few – will be most keen to jump into the market early, worried that they’ll miss their “window.”

On the year, he expects Calgary will remain the leading housing market for sales activity with a still-strong economy underpinned by interprovincial migration. He expects Toronto and southern Ontario, which saw some of the steepest corrections over the past year and a half, will similarly see a “stronger rebound” in 2024.

Soper expects a “sharp increase” in the number of first-time homebuyers as well this year. This cohort was missing during the housing correction in 2023, he says, but lower borrowing costs could be more favourable to those who have been able to build up savings as interest rates were rising.

Growing entry of first-timers into the housing market will likely put more pressure on home prices, however, because they’re not adding to the supply of resale listings, Soper says.

“When a first-time buyer comes to market, they’re not bringing a property. It’s like someone coming to a party without a bottle of wine,” he says.

“They’re just consuming, they’re not contributing. And it puts pressure on inventory.”

 

Be wary of putting stake in rate cut forecasts

For Canadians on the sidelines of the housing market debating whether now is the time to buy their first home or upsize, some experts urge caution about putting too much stake in rate forecasts.

“People like to gamble on rates. But when it’s your whole life savings at stake, it’s just not worth it,” says Clay Jarvis, financial expert with Nerdwallet Canada.

Expectations for interest rate cuts can also influence the decision between a variable mortgage, which sees payments or the loan’s amortization rate rise and fall directly in line with the Bank of Canada’s policy rate, and a fixed-rate option, which is typically set based on the bond market and steady through the contract term.

Jarvis notes that many Canadians were likely keen to jump into the housing market for the first time during the COVID-19 pandemic, when rock-bottom interest rates made variable mortgages particularly affordable. Those same homeowners have since faced ballooning payments during the Bank of Canada’s interest rate hike cycle, Jarvis notes.

Canadians eyeing variable-rate mortgages today based on expectations that rates are going to fall in the year to come will have some tricky calculations to consider.

Jarvis says that with the spread between variable rates and fixed rates around one percentage point currently, prospective buyers and those with mortgages up for renewal will have to consider how long they’re willing to wait before the central bank’s interest rate falls enough to hit a break-even point on the fixed alternatives.

“You also have to think about the stability offered by a fixed rate. If the risk of a variable rate freaks you out, that might be the best course for you,” he says.

While economists are holding to their forecasts for interest rate cuts now, Jarvis emphasizes that there is no guarantee that rates will drop soon or they won’t rise again.

The annual rate of inflation ticked back up to 3.4 per cent in December, a move that Soper says gave forecasters like him some slight pause that the Bank of Canada could be forced back to rate hikes to reach its two per cent target.

Yields on the five-year government of Canada bond, which informs the popular five-year fixed mortgage, have increased since the start of 2024, though not quite erasing recent easing towards the end of last year.

James Laird, co-CEO of Ratehub.ca, noted in a statement Wednesday that lenders had held off on raising fixed mortgage rates in response to those moves in anticipation of the Bank of Canada’s rate decision.

He said lenders will now consider raising those rates again with no timeline for rate cuts yet offered from the central bank.

If a prospective buyer’s financial plan to enter the housing market hinges on interest rates or home prices heading in a certain direction, Jarvis advises taking a step back.

Speak to a lending or real estate professional to get a better sense of the kind of home you can afford in today’s market and decide where to go from there, he suggests. Focusing on a down payment savings strategy, for example, instead of hoping for interest rate cuts, can help to maximize your buying potential when conditions are right for you to enter the housing market on solid footing.

“You need to focus on the things that you can control,” Jarvis says.

 

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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