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Commercial real estate a 'manageable' problem but some banks will close: Powell – Yahoo Finance

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Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell is predicting that more small banks will likely close or merge due to commercial real estate weaknesses, but that the problem is ultimately “manageable.”

The central bank official made this point during a 60 Minutes interview that aired Sunday night. It was Powell’s first comments about the industry following a new bout of turmoil cascading through the stocks of many regional banks.

“I don’t think there’s much risk of a repeat of 2008,” Powell said, referring to a financial crisis 16 years ago that took down some of the biggest institutions on Wall Street as well as hundreds of banks across the US.

“I do think it’s a manageable problem,” he added.

Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell arrives to speak during a news conference about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy at the Federal Reserve, Wednesday, Jan. 31, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell arrives to speak during a news conference about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy at the Federal Reserve, Wednesday, Jan. 31, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

The new concerns about regional banks were triggered by $116 billion commercial real estate lender New York Community Bancorp (NYCB), which shocked Wall Street last Wednesday when it slashed its dividend, reported a surprise quarterly loss, and stockpiled millions for future loan losses related to commercial real estate holdings.

The stock of the Hicksville, N.Y.-based lender fell 38% on Wednesday and another 11% on Thursday, dragging the rest of the sector down with it. The stocks recovered Friday but are in the red once again on Monday. New York Community Bancorp was down more than 7% in morning trading.

Powell acknowledged in his 60 Minutes interview that some smaller banks will “have to be closed” or merged “out of existence” due to losses tied to the falling values of properties across the US that are suddenly worth much less due to the Fed’s elevated interest rates and the effect of a pandemic that emptied out many city-center buildings.

But “we looked at the larger banks’ balance sheets, and it appears to be a manageable problem,” Powell said on 60 Minutes.

“There’s some smaller and regional banks that have concentrated exposures in these areas that are challenged. And, you know, we’re working with them. This is something we’ve been aware of for, you know, a long time, and we’re working with them to make sure that they have the resources and a plan to work their way through the expected losses.”

Regional banks are particularly vulnerable because they hold a lot more exposure to these properties than larger rivals. For banks with more than $100 billion in assets, commercial real estate loans only account for 13% of total credit. For smaller banks, they account for 44% of total bank credit.

Loans tied to offices and certain multifamily housing properties are showing the most weakness. Not all segments of commercial real estate are expected to face the same problems.

David Chiaverini, a regional and midsized bank analyst for Wedbush Securities, told Yahoo Finance that commercial real estate “will be managed better at some of the other banks” than at New York Community Bancorp, which also has a high level of exposure to rent-controlled apartment complexes in New York City. Those buildings account for 22% of its loans.

A man walks past a closed branch of the New York Community Bank in New York City, U.S., January 31, 2024. REUTERS/Mike Segar/File PhotoA man walks past a closed branch of the New York Community Bank in New York City, U.S., January 31, 2024. REUTERS/Mike Segar/File Photo

New York Community Bancorp has a sizable presence in New York City. REUTERS/Mike Segar/File Photo (Reuters / Reuters)

Chiaverini said the bank should have set aside more in reserves last year while booking a gain from its purchase of assets from the failed Signature Bank.

“The severity of the issue is, I would say, mostly idiosyncratic to New York Community Bank because they were so under-reserved relative to the risk in their portfolio,” he added.

The “perfect storm” that could create problems for the rest of the industry, according to Chiaverini, is that if inflation goes back up, forcing the Fed to keep rates higher for longer, and the US economy enters a recession. Borrowers would then have problems keeping up with their loans.

If those things don’t happen, the commercial real estate pain should be “manageable” for the banks, he added.

The Fed chair repeated that same word three times in his 60 Minutes interview.

“It should be manageable,” Powell said.

David Hollerith is a senior reporter for Yahoo Finance covering banking, crypto, and other areas in finance.

Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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