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Brookfield's Bruce Flatt says commercial real estate market is at a turning point – The Globe and Mail

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Bruce Flatt, Brookfield Asset Management Inc, CEO, speaks at the Milken Institute’s 21st Global Conference in Beverly Hills, Calif. on May 1, 2018.LUCY NICHOLSON/Reuters

Brookfield Corp.BN-T chief executive officer Bruce Flatt is predicting “a much different story” for the beleaguered commercial real estate sector over the next two years, suggesting falling interest rates and an uptick in transactions should create “major tailwinds” for property owners.

Mr. Flatt signalled what he sees as a turning point for gloomy real estate trends, particularly in the United States. He acknowledged the stress that has weighed on commercial real estate owners as a rapid rise in interest rates drove up the cost of borrowing, pushed down building values and slowed the volume of property deals to a trickle.

But that was last year’s story, Mr. Flatt told analysts on a Thursday conference call as the parent company for Brookfield’s varied asset management business reported fourth-quarter earnings.

“The new story will become soon that there are major tailwinds behind real estate, fundamentals are good and interest rates are coming down by 200 basis points,” Mr. Flatt said. (100 basis points equal one percentage point.)

Assuming that prediction for rates is correct, he expects that real assets such as infrastructure and “real estate in particular” are going to see cash flows and profits improve significantly “because the fundamental revenues are flat to going up, and interest costs are coming down dramatically,” he said.

In turn, cap rates – a measure of the yield from owning a property, based on its operating income relative to its value – should settle at more “realistic” levels, “and therefore transaction activity will come back,” Mr. Flatt said.

“I think the next 24 months in real estate, you’re going to see a much different story play out than what you imagined. And those stories that people are still talking about are stories from 24 months ago, not the next 24 months,” Mr. Flatt said.

Brookfield built its vast scale – it manages US$916-billion of assets, including infrastructure, private equity, renewable power and credit – with real estate as its cornerstone. It is still the company’s largest business, managing a US$276-billion portfolio.

In a difficult, expensive market for real estate owners in recent years, as many industry observers predicted widespread pain from high interest rates, Mr. Flatt has consistently said that the best quality real estate assets would continue to perform well, even in hard hit sectors such as office towers. It was the owners of second-class buildings that were at risk, he said.

Brookfield has not been immune to the market’s woes, and has defaulted on some commercial mortgages in the U.S. That included buildings in Los Angeles, Washington and New York, where Brookfield chose to walk away from properties that weren’t performing well if it couldn’t renegotiate better terms with lenders.

The asset manager is also planning to cut the amount of capital it has invested in real estate from US$24-billion to US$15-billion by 2028. It will keep most of what it calls its core real estate portfolio, which holds its trophy assets in major world cities, and sell transitional and development assets that have had a harder time, as well as residential holdings.

Last year, Brookfield raised US$8-billion for the latest vintage of its main real estate fund, which aims to bring in US$15-billion before the end of this year. But it has taken longer to secure that money from investors than it did the last time Brookfield raised a flagship real estate fund.

Even when refinancing real estate was at its most challenging last year, Brookfield said it completed US$30-billion of real estate financings on more than 150 different investments. Now, financing markets for properties are getting more liquid so far in 2024, “and that should be very supportive of transaction activity as well,” said chief financial officer Nick Goodman.

Brookfield Corp. reported a US$5.1-billion profit in 2023. The parent company of Brookfield Asset Management BAM-T, with a 75-per-cent stake in the asset manager, had distributable earnings of US$4.8-billion – a proxy for cash that could be paid out to shareholders – which was down from US$5.2-billion in 2022.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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