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Fuel That Powers the Economy Flashes Supply Tightness in Europe – BNN Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — The diesel market in Europe is flashing signs of tightness as refinery halts and Red Sea disruption squeeze supplies of a fuel that helps to power the continent’s economy.

The market has been tight for a while, pressured by sanctions cutting off seaborne imports from Russia, the closure of European plants and refiners’ output of products slightly changing — partly in response to OPEC+ supply curbs. Now, traders are facing seasonal plant maintenance and attacks on Russian energy facilities as well as Red Sea disruption that has caused some freight rates to soar.

Diesel’s premium over crude has jumped to the highest for the time of year since at least 2012. As well as being an inflation booster, the situation also puts pressure on vital economic sectors such as trucking, farming and construction. Speculators have also become more bullish.

Diesel for delivery this month is also much more expensive than for later in the year, a structure known as backwardation that typically signals tightness.

“We expect to see a fall in northwest Europe diesel/gasoil stocks over the next two months,” said Emma Howsham, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie Ltd. She cited spring refinery maintenance, as well as “tight supply from key export hubs, and the Red Sea-Suez Canal disruption impact on flows into Europe.”

Diesel is the most important fuel used across the continent. Demand for diesel-type fuel in OECD Europe totaled more than 6 million barrels a day in 2021 and 2022, far outpacing other petroleum products like gasoline, according to the International Energy Agency.

Read More: Red Sea Attacks Are Helping Make Europe’s Diesel More Expensive

Relatively low imports are contributing to the supply problem. Overall shipments of diesel-type fuel into the European Union and UK in January were below both month-earlier and year-earlier levels, according to data from analytics firm Vortexa Ltd. compiled by Bloomberg.

Still, barrels from India and the Middle East continue to arrive, with many shipments going around South Africa’s Cape of Good Hope to avoid attacks by Houthi militants in the Red Sea, adding to voyage time and costs. Other suppliers, like the US and Turkey, also continue to send shipments.

Maintenance Impact

Plant maintenance is also keeping a lid on diesel supplies. Work on crude distillation units — the beating heart of an oil refinery — in Europe is reported to total 440,000 barrels a day this quarter, Howsham said. While that’s 110,000 barrels lower than last year, the lost output is still greater than if the region’s largest refinery were to suddenly shut down.

Arguably the biggest wildcard, however, is the threat of more drone attacks by Ukraine on Russian facilities. Despite Western sanctions, Russia still exports millions of barrels of diesel-type fuel, and any disruption to those flows will ripple across the global market.

Woodmac’s expectation for gasoil and diesel stockpiles to fall this month and next chimes with historical data for the EU and UK from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative.

That expected drop is predicted to take place despite Woodmac forecasting demand this quarter to fall roughly 5% from a year earlier in northwest Europe. After that, the consultancy expects inventories to recover.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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