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What's next after S&P 500’s worst inflation data day in years – Financial Post

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Investors are staring at a potentially long way down before they find support

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The S&P 500 index blew past a series of troubling markers in its relentless rally to 5,000. Now, after the rout on Feb. 13, investors are staring at a potentially long way down before they find support.

Signs of overexuberance are everywhere. The S&P 500s 15-week rally, in which it gained 22 per cent through Feb. 12’s close, pushed the gauge 13 per cent above its 200-day moving average, something that has occurred on just five per cent of the trading days this century. Hedge funds’ exposure to money-losing tech firms is hovering near a two-year high. And positioning across the stock market is stretched and demand for loss protection muted.

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The cold water to douse those flames arrived on the morning of Feb. 13 in the form of consumer price index (CPI) data showing inflation remains stickier than expected. The rally that had been predicated on the belief that the United States Federal Reserve’s imminent pivot to interest rate cuts slammed into reality, as those bets are being frantically rolled back.

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“The data put in doubt investors’ optimism that the central bank’s interest-rate cuts are basically a done deal,” Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance LLC, said. “It reinforced the idea that interest rate cuts are not coming any time soon. And if that’s the case, all of a sudden, the stock market rally is looking stretched.”

The risk-off momentum pushed the S&P 500 down 1.4 per cent on Feb. 13, its worst CPI-day performance since September 2022. The Nasdaq 100 index fell 1.6 per cent, while the stocks with the highest short interest dropped 5.5 per cent in the biggest loss in almost a year. Roughly 91 per cent of the stocks on the New York Stock Exchange traded lower, the most since March 2023.

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Whether this rout continues is anyone’s guess, but a 13 per cent gap between the S&P 500 and its 200-day moving average historically is a bad sign. The setup preceded losses for the S&P 500 in 2011, 2015 and 2018, data compiled Andrew Thrasher, technical analyst and portfolio manager at Financial Enhancement Group LLC, shows.

SP500 lows

“The spark for this selloff is the inflation data, but coming into this week, momentum was already pretty stretched,” he said. “The rubber band can only go so far, and the momentum for many stocks was showing signs of exhaustion.”

What’s next? A line of defence for the S&P 500 could be at 4,909, its 20-day moving average (DMA), Thrasher said. Its 50-DMA will be another critical milestone. After that, traders will watch this year’s intraday low of 4,682 on Jan. 5. And then it’s the 4,600 level, which capped the S&P 500’s rally in July, but ultimately yielded to the risk-on momentum in December as the gauge powered to new highs.

Another issue for bulls is that fewer stocks have been participating in the rally this year, which could worsen the pain as indexes decline. Some 51 per cent of stocks in the S&P 500 are trading above their 50-day moving average, the fewest since November.

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That said, there are signs of fundamental strength. Corporate America’s profit machine keeps chugging, the U.S. consumer is solid and unemployment remains in check. But a relative lack of hedging demand amid a 15-week, 22 per cent S&P 500 rally is a worrisome sign of complacency. The so-called put-to-call skew on the Top 50 stocks in the S&P 500 is approaching the level last seen in the first quarter of 2021.

“Market participants had been conditioned to expect a linear decline in inflation,” Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, said. “They were hoping numbers would cooperate with a glide path toward a two per cent target, leading to the rate cuts that the market had priced in.”

— With assistance from Hema Parmar.

Bloomberg.com

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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