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OMERS chief executive sees better days ahead for real estate portfolio – The Globe and Mail

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Falling property values across the commercial real estate sector put a dent in the Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System’s investment returns last year, but chief executive officer Blake Hutcheson predicts that “the worst is behind us.”

OMERS investments gained 4.6 per cent in 2023, or $5.6-billion after expenses. The pension fund manager’s results were buoyed by strong gains from stocks and bonds, but its real estate portfolio lost 7.2 per cent as higher borrowing costs and operating expenses drove down commercial property values.

OMERS missed its internal target to earn 7 per cent for the year. But its longer-term returns have cleared that mark, with the fund averaging an 8-per-cent annual gain over the past three years, after expenses, and 7.3 per cent over 10 years.

It has been a harrowing year for commercial real estate investors, and OMERS’s business in the sector “got hit hard,” Mr. Hutcheson said. High interest rates drove up borrowing costs, inflation increased operating costs and vacancy rates climbed higher. That has forced investors to sharply mark down property values after many had stubbornly stuck by higher valuations even as central banks ratcheted up interest rates.

Much of the angst has focused on office buildings and retail outlets such as shopping malls, as hybrid working arrangements took hold and consumer purchases tilted more toward e-commerce after the COVID-19 pandemic.

But Mr. Hutcheson said OMERS felt the impact on property values across its real estate portfolio in 2023, including for industrial properties that have generally been more resilient. That was in spite of a 9-per-cent increase in income from properties owned by its real estate subsidiary, Oxford Properties.

“This year it was pretty universal,” Mr. Hutcheson said.

With interest rates likely at their peak, however, he predicted that capitalization rates – the ratio that measures the annual yield from an investment property, and gives an indication of how risky it is – have hit a high, meaning that property values could soon start to stabilize, easing the risks to investors.

“As the cost of money comes down, by definition appraisers bring cap rates down,” Mr. Hutcheson said. “We think, on a go-forward basis, real estate as an asset class will start to pick up. … The worst is behind us from a valuation perspective.”

That doesn’t mean the pain is over for real estate, as some property owners will struggle to refinance expensive debt and to off-load lower-quality buildings, except at bargain prices.

That could create buying opportunities, not only in real estate but other sectors as well, and OMERS has stockpiled capital to take advantage as assets come up for sale at attractive prices.

“We didn’t see any of it in 2023, of note,” Mr. Hutcheson said. “We do expect more of that in the next year and two years.”

Last year, OMERS had a wide divergence in performance between publicly traded stocks and bonds and privately held investments. Stocks gained 10.4 per cent and bonds were up 5.8 per cent. By contrast, OMERS had gains of 5.5 per cent from infrastructure and 3.9 per cent from private equity, which are lower-than-normal returns that compounded its real estate losses.

That was a reversal from 2022, when gains from private investments boomed and public equities and bonds lost money, adding up to an overall return of 4.2 per cent.

OMERS also shifted about $4-billion into bonds and private credit last year, seeking to take advantage of stronger returns from fixed income while rates are at their highest level in two decades. Most of that sum was moved out of investments in equities.

“When the markets soften, we think our focus on credits and privates will outperform, and that’s what we’ve experienced over the past three years,” Mr. Hutcheson said.

OMERS invests on behalf of approximately 600,000 Ontario public-service workers, including nurses, firefighters and police officers. It now manages $128.6-billion of assets, up from $124.2-billion a year earlier.

The plan is 97-per-cent funded and inching closer to being fully funded, up from 95 per cent at the end of 2022.

“All things considered, we’re feeling good about the way we’re positioned,” Mr. Hutcheson said.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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